Built similarly to the extremely popular NBA Boom Bust Tool here at Awesemo, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has gained popularity as the most user-friendly way to identify the best (and worst) plays on any given slate. Developed by the data team at Awesemo including Alex Baker himself, this tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust) and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 10 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing NFL DFS lineups.
Week 10 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades
Top Three Boom Plays
Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers TE: DraftKings – $3,900 / 9.3% Ownership | FanDuel – $5,100 / 7.8% Ownership
Freiermuth’s ownership is coming in way too low for a player whose floor nearly covers his cost. In the past three games on 20 targets, the Steelers rookie tight end has produced over 48 fantasy points by way of 16 receptions amounting to 145 yards and three touchdowns. He has become an absolute beast and Ben Roethlisberger loves targeting him. Detroit has allowed 418 yards and two touchdowns to the position while getting gashed to a 109-yard performance by Mark Andrews in Week 2. Freiermuth holds a 17.8% boom score which is the fourth-highest at the position and the highest of any player under $4,000 (DraftKings) or $5,300 (FanDuel). Pittsburgh projects for an implied total of 26 points leaving an opportunity for their rookie tight end to catch a touchdown in his third straight appearance.
Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons TE: DraftKings – $5,800 / 11.4% Ownership / | FanDuel – $6,900 / 11.2% Ownership
Another rookie tight end seeing ownership well under his value is phenom Kyle Pitts. With 40 targets in the last five games, his target share (19.5%) has bumped to seventh-best at the position. His 10 red-zone targets are the fourth-most for tight ends and are shown in his 20.8% target share in that area of the field. Dallas has allowed 36.9 points in the red zone to tight ends, which is third-worst in the NFL. The Cowboys defense gives up 60.5 yards and 0.5 a touchdown to the position on average presenting a great opportunity for a ceiling game given the highest game total (54.5) of the slate. His boom score is over 20% in both FanDuel and DraftKings and with such underwhelming ownership presents one of the best leverage plays on the board.
Terry McBride’s NFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Optimizer Groups & Leverage Leaders article also states why Pitts and a Falcons stack could be one of the sneakier spots to attack in Week 10.
Davante Adams – Green Bay WR: DraftKings – $7,900 / 19.7% Ownership / | FanDuel – $8,700 / 17.5% Ownership
The matchup is key here as the Packers face off against the Seahawks and will see a defense that permits 176 yards and nearly a touchdown to the wide receiver position per game. Aaron Rodgers will start but hasn’t been permitted to be with the team until today and should default to throwing to the pass catchers he has the most chemistry with. Expect Adams to flaunt his number one target share (35.1%) against an exploitable secondary that’s already given up plays of 76, 68, and 51 yards this season. The game total sits at 49.5 favoring home Green Bay by three points. Rodger’s No. 1 target for the past five years has three touchdowns in their last five games together and his 20.9% boom score is worth locking in your lineup.
Top Three Bust Fades
Michael Carter – New York Jets RB: DraftKings – $5,700 / 12.7% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,100 / 12.4% Ownership
Buffalo’s defense is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per rush (3.8) to opponents and face a Jets offense that elects to run (21.1) less than anyone in the NFL. The Bills have seen the third-fewest rush attempts (22.4) per game from their opponents while giving up the fewest receptions (3.2 p/g) to the running back position. The opportunity will be lacking for the rookie running back against a defense that has allowed only 127.8 (15.98 p/g) DraftKings points to the position all year. New York carries the third-lowest implied total (17.5) on the slate leaving only two projected scores available. Carter holds a heavy bust rate (32.1%) and scored as the worst leverage play on DraftKings while ranking third-worst on FanDuel. Avoid being like the 12% of lineups who carry the Jets rookie and find another back.
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Adam Thielen – Minnesota Vikings WR: DraftKings – $6,700 / 7.4% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,000 / 9.8% Ownership
Averaging under 60 receiving yards per game for just the second time in the past six seasons, Thielen is off to a slow start in terms of yards but his seven touchdowns have kept him fantasy relevant. The Chargers have allowed only five touchdown receptions to the wide receiver position this season, third-best, while additionally giving up the third-fewest fantasy points on all platforms. The Los Angeles rank third in pass yards allowed per game (197.0) and at 6.6 yards per pass attempt sits in the top 10 of efficiency. At 8.3 targets per game Thielen is seeing opportunity but the productivity and efficiency are lacking. His 1.36 yards of separation is 79th at the position and with only 7.2 yards per target doesn’t project well in a matchup against one of the NFL’s best secondaries. A leverage score of -3.8% is worst at the position in DraftKings and the 53% bust rate could explain why.
Tennessee Titans Defense: DraftKings – $2,600 / 9.7% Ownership | FanDuel – $4,100 / 6.2% Ownership
The Titans’ defense has been hot lately with three straight games over 12 fantasy points and against some good offensive teams as well. This week they’ll face Trevor Siemian and the New Orleans Saints in a home game with the second-lowest game total (43.5) on the slate. Tennessee is favored by three points leaving New Orleans with an implied total of 20.5. Siemian has been a solid game manager in his two weeks of action, allowing only one sack per game and no turnovers while moving the chains when necessary. The Saints have allowed only 1.4 fantasy points to opposing defenses this season, which is the sixth-best in the NFL. Tennessee’s 38.3% bust rate correlates its -5.7% leverage on ownership near 10%.
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