NFL DFS Divisional Round Picks & Fades: Jaguars Cannot Guard Travis Kelce

The NFL Divisional Round main slates are different between the two sites, with DraftKings lumping all four games into one slate and FanDuel labeling the Saturday slate as the “main” slate. FanDuel’s Sunday slate is a separate entity. As such, this article features boom candidates for NFL DFS picks of the two main slates: all four games for DraftKings, Saturday games for FanDuel.

Using the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups, and below are one NFL DFS fade and two boom plays it is earmarking for the Divisional Round slate.


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NFL DFS Picks Divisional Round: Best High-Upside Plays

NFL DFS Picks: Divisional Round Boom Picks

QB Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings – $7,600; 15.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 15.5% Boom

Hurts is the No. 1 boom quarterback on DraftKings, just edging out Patrick Mahomes, and the Philadelphia Eagles star also projects to have slightly less ownership at 16.4%. The big thing working in Hurts’ favor is the New York Giants defense. Last week, it held the Minnesota Vikings top playmakers in check, with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook combining for just 117 yards and no touchdowns. However, the Giants did allow the 10th most yards rushing per game to quarterbacks, and Hurts ran for 61 yards and a touchdown against them on Dec. 11.

Plus, Kirk Cousins was still able to produce, just not while targeting Jefferson. Most notably, tight end T.J. Hockenson went for 129 yards on 10 catches. That points to Hurts connecting with Dallas Goedert a lot in this one and supplementing the possible lack of production for wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith with a strong running game.

As of writing, Stokastic projects Hurts for the second most fantasy points of any quarterback on the DraftKings slate while doing so at a cheaper salary than No. 1 Mahomes.


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TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs

DraftKings – $7,700; 25.0% Boom | FanDuel $8,000; 31.7% Boom

Kelce is the top boom target, period, on both sites, as no team remaining in the playoffs allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week, Gerald Everett — far from an elite at the position — went for over 100 yards and a touchdown against the Jacksonville defense. And Kelce torched the Jaguars for 81 yards and a touchdown on seven targets for the Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 10.

It goes without saying that Kelce is the top projected tight end for the weekend — second-place Goedert projects for 8 fewer DraftKings points — but Kelce is No. 5 in DraftKings projection among all players, outpacing Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones and Stefon Diggs. Goedert slightly exceeds Kelce in value rating, but Kelce’s ceiling is so much higher that his boom score is dwarfing Goedert’s on both sites. As of writing, only Ja’Marr Chase projects for more yards receiving, and he is the only player on the slate projecting for more than seven receptions.

NFL DFS Picks: Divisional Round Bust Pick

RB Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings – $5,400; 61.6% Bust | FanDuel $6,500; 56.9% Bust

Things have gotten so bleak for Elliott that he is entirely touchdown-dependent to crack double-digit fantasy points. He is virtually unused in the Dallas Cowboys passing game, and he has not eclipsed 60 yards rushing in any of the past five games. And Elliott is getting touches, with  carry counts of 13, 8, 19, 16, 16 in those five. But they are simply not turning into anything productive unless he’s at the goal line: Elliott is averaging only 2.6 yards per carry in those five games. He does have a touchdown in three of those, however, so a passable fantasy performance is on the table.

The problem is that the San Francisco 49ers defense has been largely impenetrable. No team allowed fewer fantasy points or yards rushing per game to running backs in the regular season, and they ranked 10th in touchdowns per game surrendered to the position. So even though Elliott’s salary has dropped to ninth among running backs on this slate, Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool sees Elliott as far too touchdown-reliant to make any real noise on the Divisional Round slate.

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Author
Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.

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