The NFL season continues to Week 11 with a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, we will go over some of the best Week 11 NFL DFS picks, but keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.
NFL First Look: Week 11 NFL DFS Picks
Patrick Mahomes, DAL vs. KC ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
After a stretch of underwhelming performances, Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football. With salaries coming out before the conclusion of the game, Mahomes did not receive an increase in salary. This week the Chiefs face off against the Cowboys as 2.5-point home favorites. More importantly, this game has a 54.5 total, which paces the slate by 4.5 points. Mahomes has now eclipsed 300 yards on four occasions this year and looks likely to do so again in this shootout game environment. He is one of the top price-adjusted plays on the slate.
Dak Prescott, DAL vs. KC ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
In the same game, Dak Prescott also did not receive a large enough salary bump for the premier shootout of Week 11. In his second game back from injury, Prescott narrowly missed the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings, finishing with 296 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With Dallas routing Atlanta 43-3, much of the Cowboys production came on the ground from a pair of Ezekiel Elliott touchdowns. The Chiefs defense has improved slightly of late, but they still allow the third-most yards per pass attempt. Prescott is an excellent option for those struggling to reach Mahomes.
Joe Burrow, CIN vs. LV ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Coming off a bye week, the Bengals face a struggling Raiders team as 1-point favorites in a game with a 49-point total. The Raiders are fresh off a battering against the Chiefs where Mahomes threw for 406 yards. Cutting their former first-round corner Damon Arnette, the Raiders have struggled to maintain a viable secondary during recent weeks. Burrow has a pair of 300-yard games this season but eclipsed 270 yards on three other occasions. Prior to the bye, Burrow attempted as least 34 passes in three straight games. In a projected close affair, Burrow makes sense as a mid-priced DFS option.
A.J. Dillon, GB vs. MIN ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
With Aaron Jones out due to an MCL sprain, A.J. Dillon looks likely to handle a feature back role for Green Bay moving forward. In addition to Jones, Green Bay lost third-string back Kylin Hill for the season earlier this year. This leaves just Patrick Taylor as Green Bay’s change-of-pace back. With Jones going down midway through Week 10, Dillon cleaned up 21 carries and a pair of targets for the Packers. This week Green Bay faces Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 49.5-point total. Dillon is an excellent mid-priced option here.
James Conner, ARI vs. SEA ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Like Dillon, James Conner continues to benefit from an injury to Chase Edmonds. With Kyler Murray out last week, the Cardinals lost to the Panthers by a score of 34-10. Conner only carried 10 times and saw four targets in the pass game. Fortunately, Conner played over 80% of the snaps, while Eno Benjamin functioned as a pure change of pace. This week the Cardinals face the Seahawks as 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 50-point total. More importantly, Murray appears close to a return, which should spark the entire offense.
Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. NYJ ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
For those looking to completely punt the running back position, Myles Gaskin looks like a potential option. Gaskin has suffered through poor offensive line play and negative game script for much of 2021. However, he continues to handle a majority of the running back work, including 14 carries and a pair of targets last week. This week the Dolphins face the Jets as 3-point favorites in a game with a 45-point total. While the matchup is excellent, Gaskin has ceded some work to Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird in recent weeks. With that said, this is one of the best matchups Gaskin will see all year, putting him squarely in play for tournaments.
Tyreek Hill, DAL vs. KC ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
For those looking at Chiefs stacks, Tyreek Hill is fresh off a game with seven catches, 83 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets. On the year, Hill leads the team in target share (27.4%) and air yards share (38.8%). On top of the elite shootout potential, Dallas ranks bottom 12 in yards allowed per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. He is slightly less expensive than Davante Adams, so Hill makes for a solid stacking partner with Mahomes and potential cash game option at receiver.
Tyler Lockett, ARI vs. SEA ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
After a red-hot start to the season, Tyler Lockett has cooled in recent weeks. Much of his decline can be rationalized by Russell Wilson‘s injury. However, Lockett converted just two of eight targets into 23 yards in Wilson’s return from injury. Ultimately, better days will be ahead of Wilson and the offense. Lockett still leads the team in target share and air yards share. Arizona has played solid pass defense this season, but this game also looks like a potential shootout. With a 50-point total, the Seahawks are just 2.5-point underdogs. Their implied team has held strong above three touchdowns, giving Lockett enough of a scoring expectation to play here. His price has simply fallen too far.
Tee Higgins, CIN vs. LV ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Coming out of the bye week, Tee Higgins offers a cheaper stacking partner with Burrow. While Ja’Marr Chase has gotten most of the recognition, Higgins has quietly played a major role. Higgins boasts a 24.6% target share and 33.5 air yards share in the offense. Higgins has not scored since Week 2, but his target volume remains consistent. In a close projected game against a weakening Raiders secondary, Higgins looks like a strong stacking option with Burrow here.
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Darren Waller, CIN vs. LV ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
With Travis Kelce and George Kittle back on the main slate, the top end of tight end has some tough decision points. However, Darren Waller is a buy low after a season-worst performance against the Chiefs in Week 10. Waller caught just four of seven targets for 24 scoreless yards in that affair. However, Waller trailed only Hunter Renfrow in terms of targets and now enters Week 11 with an attractive price. On the year, Waller has a 23.7% target share and 25.9% air yards share in the Las Vegas offense. Cincinnati plays middling pass defense, keeping Waller in play among the expensive tight ends in tournaments.
Dawson Knox, IND vs. BUF ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Returning from a broken hand, Dawson Knox caught his only target for 17 yards receiving with the Bills beating the Jets 45-17. Positively, Knox participated in 84% of the offensive snaps and did not appear limited by the injury in the slightest. When healthy, Knox averaged 43 yards per game on four targets. With Buffalo slated to face the Colts as 7-point favorites in a game with a 49-point total, Knox offers a cheap attachment to an explosive offense.
Cole Kmet, BAL vs. CHI ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
One of the slate’s more interesting games, the Bears draw the Ravens as 6-point home underdogs in a game with a 45.5-point total. Fresh off their bye, Chicago has now put up 20 points in back-to-back games as Justin Fields continues to improve. With Fields playing more efficient football, the Bears pass catchers have also started to show signs of increased efficiency. Cole Kmet finished Chicago’s most recent game with six catches for 87 yards on eight targets. Kmet has 44 targets this year, which equates to a 19% target share in the offense. The trails Allen Robinson by only six targets. Coming at a cheap price, Kmet offers punt viability on the Week 11 DFS slate.
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