The NFL season continues to Week 5 with a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, we will go over some of the best Week 5 NFL DFS picks, but keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.
NFL First Look: Week 5 NFL DFS Picks
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert, CLE vs. LAC ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
The Chargers are 1-point favorites over the Browns. This game currently has a 50-point total, immediately giving Herbert viability. Herbert has thrown for at least 281 yards in every game this year, averaging 319 yards per game. He has completed 69.8% of his passes in the process. He does draw a difficult matchup against a top-10 Browns pass defense. However, the Browns have benefited from matchups against the Texans and Bears within their first four games. Herbert is still a strong stacking option on this slate.
Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DAL ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Despite playing for the 1-3 Giants team, Jones has put up solid DFS numbers this season. He has at least 249 yards passing in every game, with a per-game average of 296. Jones also has solid mobility, with at least 27 yards rushing each week and 47 per game. This week the Giants project to be throwing the ball a lot once again against the Cowboys. Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 50.5-point total. Already showing a propensity for shootouts, the Cowboys have allowed at least 17 points each week and 24.2 points per game. Jones is a strong price-adjusted consideration given his mobility and volume.
Trey Lance, SF vs. ARI ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
With Jimmy Garoppolo expected to miss a few weeks, Lance will take over the starting quarterback job for San Francisco. Drafted with the third overall pick, Lance has tantalizing upside due to his mobility. He rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced his 2020 season to one game. Lance threw for 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the second half of Week 4 against Seattle, further displaying his upside. Improving matters further, the 49ers have another potential shootout on deck against the Cardinals in a game with a 52.5-point total.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry, TEN vs. JAX ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel)
Henry is receiving an absurd workload on the ground for the Titans right now. He already has 113 carries for 510 yards this season through four games. Henry has at least 28 carries and 113 yards rushing in three straight games as well. While he still cedes some work on passing downs, he has 15 targets this season. On that volume he has registered an additional 14 catches for 125 yards. This week he draws an atrocious Jaguars defense as a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a 48.5 total. At $9,000, he is still too cheap on DraftKings.
Najee Harris, DEN vs. PIT ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
After beating Buffalo in Week 1, Pittsburgh has dropped three straight games. However, this has not really changed Harris’ workload out of the backfield. Harris now has back-to-back games with at least 14 carries. He also has 26 targets, 20 catches and 131 yards receiving in that span. Pittsburgh is a 1-point favorite over the Broncos as well, pointing to a strong workload again here. Viable in all game scripts, Harris looks like a solid play moving forward across formats.
Trey Sermon, SF vs. ARI ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
Elijah Mitchell may return from injury in Week 5, but Sermon played well enough to hang onto the starting running back job in San Francisco. Sermon carried 19 times for 89 yards in Week 4 as San Francisco lost to the Seahawks by a touchdown. Concerningly, Sermon did not receive a single target in the game. However, the 49ers have another potential shootout on deck against the Cardinals. The only running back to receive a target in last week’s game was Kyle Juszczyk, keeping hope alive for Sermon’s potential pass game role. Even so, at this price Sermon has enough upside to play in tournaments in this excellent game environment.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, CLE vs. LAC ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
While Mike Williams has emerged as a legitimate weapon, Allen still looks like the superior target for the time being. Allen boasts a 27.3% target share, a 32.3% air yards share and 258 yards receiving through three weeks, which ranks below Williams’ 295. However, coming down in price, Allen is still a phenomenal option against the Browns in a potential shootout.
Amari Cooper, NYG vs. DAL ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Week 4 did not quite go according to play for Dallas pass catchers. Ezekiel Elliott registered another breakout game, as Dallas played with a comfortable lead over Carolina. However, this caused both Cooper and CeeDee Lamb to drop in price. Cooper still is the cheaper receiver, making him an attractive play regardless of format. Cooper already has 28 targets (21.4% target share), which he turned in to 258 yards and three touchdowns. Dallas has shown a willingness to play an up-tempo style and pass above expectation, making Cooper a primary target in this situation.
Odell Beckham Jr., CLE vs. LAC ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Still underpriced, Beckham finished Week 4 with a mediocre two catches for 27 yards on seven targets. However, Baker Mayfield missed Beckham on a would-be 70-yard touchdown. Since his return from injury, Beckham has handled a 26.7% target share and 47% air yards share. In this competitive environment, Beckham deserves a long look ahead of Week 5.
Tight Ends
George Kittle, SF vs. ARI ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Deebo Samuel erupted for the enormous game in Week 4 for San Francisco, but Kittle quietly had elite opportunity as well. Kittle saw 11 targets, which ranked just behind Samuel’s 12. On the year Kittle now has a 22.3% target share and ranks second on the team with 196 air yards. While Lance’s insertion adds volatility, Kittle’s price does not reflect his opportunity in the San Francisco offense. San Francisco also has a potential shootout on its hands against the Cardinals, further boosting Kittle’s outlook.
Dalton Schultz, NYG vs. DAL ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
While some of the Dallas pass catchers have struggled of late, Schultz has seen an uptick in volume. Schultz now has back-to-back games with at least seven targets. He also has 138 yards receiving and three touchdowns in that span as his role continues to grow. Schultz will cede some snaps to Blake Jarwin, but he has played too well to keep off the field. Last week Schultz played on 79% of snaps, further solidifying himself as a legitimate tight end option.
Evan Engram, NYG vs. DAL ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton still banged up, the Giants turned to Engram in a full-time role in Week 4. Engram only managed five catches for 27 yards on six targets, but his snap share rose to 68%. Engram remains a cheap dart throw in a game environment where the Giants expect to throw the ball from behind. At a bleak tight end position, Engram could make sense for those stacking the game or simply punting the position entirely.
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