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2022 Super Bowl DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel NFL Picks & Value Plays

Matt Gajewski



The NFL season continues with Super Bowl 56 and a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the Super Bowl NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, this will go over some of the best 2022 Super Bowl NFL DFS picks, but remember to keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness and ruin your lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.

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Matthew Stafford ($10,800 DraftKings)

After struggling a little bit to close out the season, Matthew Stafford bounced back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers in their last two games. In those contests, Stafford threw a combined 703 passing yards, while scoring five touchdowns. Stafford has played excellent football most of the year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt. This includes nine games above 300 yards in the Rams’ pass-heavy offense. In the Super Bowl, the Rams remain four-point favorites in a game with a 48.5-point total. With the better-implied team total and one of the league’s heaviest pass rates in neutral game scripts, Stafford projects slightly better than Joe Burrow on a price-adjusted basis. With clear upside, Stafford warrants consideration in the flex/caption spot across formats.

Joe Burrow ($10,600 DraftKings)

Another player experiencing a late-season surge, Burrow has 525, 446, 244, 348 and 250 passing yards in these last five games. From a game environment perspective, Cincinnati potentially playing from behind benefits Burrow here. While the Los Angeles pass rush presents a tough matchup for Burrow, the Bengals have shown an ability to overcome these deficiencies in the past. For DFS purposes, the shootout potential in this game keeps Burrow squarely in play across formats. Unlike Stafford, the Bengals spread the ball a little bit more across their receiving corps, potentially making Burrow a better flex play. Either way, constructions with Burrow in the captain or flex could make sense depending on the build.

Running Back

Joe Mixon ($9,600 DraftKings)

An interesting target here, Joe Mixon has the best workload among runners in this game, but he also projects to play from behind. Mixon has at least 20 touches in five straight games for Cincinnati, including elevated pass work. This includes 29 targets in that span, resulting in 26 catches. Efficiency on the ground has been a major issue for Mixon to end the year. In Cincinnati’s last eight games, he has only averaged above four yards-per-carry in one game. With the Rams’ elite defensive line on deck, he might have to rely more on his pass-catching ability. Still, Mixon’s workload keeps him squarely in play across game scripts. Samaje Perine scored the long receiving touchdown last week, but he still only has seven combined touches in Cincinnati’s last three games.

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Cam Akers ($6,400 DraftKings)

Since returning from his summer Achilles injury, Cam Akers has experienced a variety of struggles. After fumbling twice in the Divisional Round, Akers found himself banged up in the Conference Championship. While he expects to play here, his workload remains a little more suspect than Mixon on the other side. In his three playoff games, Akers received 9, 27 and 14 touches with extremely low efficiency. Out-performed by Sony Michel, Akers is a dicey flex play in situations where the Rams play with a lead. The ceiling case for Akers would be LA taking the hot-hand approach after a few solid runs early. However, Michel will likely be involved here after seeing 12 touches himself in the Conference Championship Round. In large-field tournaments, this could be a situation to gain an edge in ownership.

Looking for more action for Super Bowl 56? Check out Eytan Shander’s 2022 Super Bowl favorite picks and parlays in this Same Game Parlay. Subscribe to the OddsShopper YouTube Channel for all of the best 2022 Super Bowl betting picks and prop bets.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp ($11,600 DraftKings)

Continuing his historic season, Cooper Kupp looks over his volume concerns. After three consecutive seven target games, Kupp saw 25 combined targets over LA’s last two games. He had 183 yards and 142 yards in those games with three combined touchdowns. On the year, he has a 31.7% target share and 32.4% air yards share, giving him the best workload of any player in the game. While expensive, Kupp still grades out as one of the better value plays on the slate. However, with tight pricing, Kupp may not be the optimal captain due to a lack of cheap options to play alongside him.

Ja’Marr Chase ($10,400 DraftKings)

The other clear alpha pass catcher in this game, Ja’Marr Chase had 116, 109 and 54 receiving yards in Cincinnati’s three playoff games. Chase does not have the same role as someone like Kupp, but that is also reflected in the price. On the year, Chase has a 23.7% target share and 37.2% air yards share. Interestingly, our projections peg Tee Higgins as a significantly better price-adjusted play, but the ceiling for Chase is undeniable.

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Tee Higgins ($7,600 DraftKings)

As mentioned above, Higgins continues to provide a similar ceiling to Chase at a cheaper price and lower ownership. On the year, Higgins has a 23.9% target share and 35% air yards share. For reference, Chase has a 23.7% target share and a 37.2% air yards share. While these two players often trade big game, Higgins enters this contest fresh off a seven-catch, 96-yard game after seeing nine targets in the Divisional Round, followed by six catches for 103 yards on ten targets against the Chiefs in the Conference Championship. Simply put, the gap in pricing between Chase and Higgins should not be this wide.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,400 DraftKings)

Finally hitting his stride as a Ram, Odell Beckham Jr. is fresh off his first 100-yard game in multiple seasons. Beckham finished the Conference Championship with 113 yards and nine catches on 11 targets. In the playoffs, he has a 24% target share and 28.5% air yards share, making him Stafford’s clear second option. No other pass catcher has more than 14 targets through the playoffs. While our tools prefer Higgins in a vacuum, Beckham makes plenty of sense in a Rams stacks here.

Tyler Boyd ($5,400 DraftKings)

A distant third option in the Bengals receiver room, Tyler Boyd finished the regular season with an 18.4% target share and 17.3% air yards share. However, the explosive nature of Cincinnati’s offense led to the occasional big game. Boyd finished the year with five games over 70 receiving yards. While this certainly falls below the output of Chase and Higgins, Boyd enters the slate with a much cheaper price. Among value plays that actually see a significant number of snaps, our projections have Boyd graded as the best option here.

Van Jefferson ($5,200 DraftKings)

Van Jefferson enters this game with an injury tag, making his status one to monitor throughout the week. However, if active, Jefferson is the presumed WR3 in LA’s offense. Playing a reduced role in favor of Beckham, Jefferson only has nine targets all playoffs. Making matters worse, he continues to cede snaps to Ben Skowronek. The rookie out of Notre Dame played 21 offensive snaps last week, the most snaps of any week in the playoffs. Priced near the stone minimum, the Awesemo projections actually prefer Skowronek to Jefferson here.

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Tight End

Tyler Higbee ($4,800 DraftKings)

A tough situation to evaluate, both tight ends enter this game with the questionable tag after sustaining knee sprains in the Conference Championship. Tyler Higbee finished the year with the more productive role behind his 15.7% target share. He also saw 11 targets in his first two playoff games. Higbee went down after just three targets against the 49ers, but his role is clear. Behind him, Kendall Blanton filled in as an every-down replacement and can be used if Higbee is not cleared to play here.

C.J. Uzomah ($4,400 DraftKings)

Similar to Higbee, CJ Uzomah also suffered a knee sprain in the Conference Championship. Unlike Higbee, Uzomah emerged primarily down the stretch. He finished with just a 12.3% target share in the regular season, but he received six and eight targets in Cincinnati’s first two playoff games. Despite being cheaper, Uzomah still finds himself behind Higbee on a cost-adjusted basis. Behind Uzomah, blocking tight end Drew Sample figures to take over most of the snaps if Uzomah cannot go. Sample’s lack of talent in the passing game could mean more targets for receivers.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! View our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings and our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS news for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL DFS stacks. We also have single-game projections and NFL DFS single-game ownership projections. Take a look at our NFL depth charts, inactive player list and starting lineups.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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