It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 13 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 13
FanDuel Value Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo — $6,600
Low-priced value at quarterback is hard to come by on FanDuel this week. Garoppolo is one of only two quarterbacks under $7,000 who rank in the top 10 for value score in Awesemo’s projections for Week 13, the other being Tua Tagovailoa. Both are fine plays, but Jimmy Garoppolo might be the better option this week, particularly if the $300 difference in price helps you fit other players you want in your lineup.
The 49ers have both a higher team total and are favored by less than the Dolphins. That would suggest more passing volume and efficiency for Garoppolo. It is also a good matchup, as the Seahawks rank 27th against the pass and 11th against the run in DVOA. Those numbers are flipped for Tagovailoa, who is playing a Giants team that is sixth against the pass but 25th against the run.
While the loss of Deebo Samuel for the week is a mark against Garoppolo on paper, it may be a good thing. Samuel scored four touchdowns rushing over the past three weeks, taking away from the 49ers passing attack. Plus, they still have George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, so there is no shortage of weapons for Garoppolo.
DraftKings Value Quarterback: Taylor Heinicke — $5,600
While his opponent for Week 13 — Raiders quarterback Derek Carr — leads Awesemo’s projections in value, Heinicke might be the better option this week. Darren Waller is out and wide receiver DeSean Jackson is questionable, which adds some risk to Carr.
Heinicke, on the other hand, should have his full complement of weaponry, with Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel both rejoining Terry McLaurin in the Washington lineup. Washington is a slight underdog, which historically favors quarterbacks as well. It is a non-threatening matchup with the Raiders 25th-ranked pass defense as well.
Sharp money has been coming in on Washington all week as well, with their line dropping from +2.5 points to 1/1.5 depending on the book. That is a good indicator that Washington is likely to have some success this week.
FanDuel Value Running Back: Jamaal Williams — $6,500
With D’Andre Swift out for the Lions this week, Williams is stepping in as the starter. Head coach Dan Campbell is reportedly planning to use a lot of Williams this week. Campbell calling plays is a good sign for Williams, as the Lions have yet to throw the ball more than 25 times in a game with Campbell directing the offense.
Williams has performed well with his opportunities this season, rushing for almost 4.4 yards per carry and catching the ball well when given the opportunity. He caught all five of his targets in Week 12 after Swift left with his injury. The Vikings allow a league-high 4.8 yards per carry, so the matchup is good too. Given the Lions offensive philosophy, he will likely carry the ball frequently this week regardless of game script. He leads all non-quarterbacks in value in the Week 13 Awesemo projections.
DraftKings Value Running Back: James Conner — $5,900
Conner has performed exceedingly well since Chase Edmonds went down with an injury, scoring seven touchdowns over the past four games. Despite that, DraftKings has kept his price reasonable. Which makes sense given that touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict. Still, Conner has at least one touchdown in eight of his last nine games and multiple touchdowns in four of those. It might be time to accept that his odds of scoring are greater than his yardage totals would indicate.
The return of Kyler Murray only boosts Conner’s chances, as the entire offense should find more success with their star quarterback in the lineup. Expect Conner to get a lot of carries in this one too, with the Cardinals favored by more than a touchdown. With the exception of Williams, Conner leads all DraftKings running backs in value in Awesemo’s projections.
Awesemo NFL expert Alex Hunter also has his eye on Conner with the help of the Awesemo premium tools. Alex breaks down how often Conner is showing up in the optimal lineup in his Week 13 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks & Optimal Lineup Percentage article.
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FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: DeVante Parker — $5,400
It is looking increasingly likely that Parker will be active for the first time since Week 8 — and only the second time since Week 4 — against the Giants this week. Assuming that bears out, he is a great FanDuel play. He is priced near the FanDuel minimum in salary but did not play like a minimum-priced player when active this season.
In each of his five games this season, Parker has a minimum of seven targets and four catches. In his brief return to action in Week 8, he caught eight of 11 targets for 85 yards. That was against one of the NFL’s top defenses in the Bills. While he is not guaranteed to have his usual role in his first game back, the fact that he drew 11 targets in his prior return to action is a good sign. Rostering Parker has the bonus of giving some exposure to Tagovailoa, assuming is the cheap quarterback. Parker is third in value score in Awesemo’s projections for Week 13 wide receivers.
DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: Hunter Renfrow — $5,800
Two of the Raiders leading receiving options could be out for Week 13. That likely means some extra volume for Renfrow, who trails only Waller in target share on the season. Renfrow’s targets are generally close to the line of scrimmage, as he has a minuscule 6.24 average depth of target. That is perfect on DraftKings, where the full-PPR scoring makes a high catch rate more valuable.
He also has a solid matchup, with the opposing Washington defense ranking 30th in DVOA against the pass on the season. Much like the discussion on FanDuel, rostering Renfrow makes sense with Heinicke, as it allows for exposure to a large chunk of Carr’s production by having Renfrow. Renfrow is behind only Parker in Awesemo’s projections for DraftKings wide receivers.
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