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NFL DFS Picks Week 11: Josh Allen Worth Spending Up for in Detroit

Tyler Schmidt



NFL DFS Picks Week 11: Josh Allen Worth Spending Up for in Detroit

It is already Week 11 in the NFL, and there is an 11-game slate with not many juicy game environments to choose from. With a few high-powered offenses not on the main slate and pricing getting better each and every week, narrowing down the best plays is critical moving forward. This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 11, including Josh Allen, and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NFL DFS Picks Week 11: Best High-Upside Plays

NFL DFS Picks Week 11 Boom Picks

QB Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills

DraftKings – $8,500; 10.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,200; 13.6% Boom

Having the game moved from the blizzard in Buffalo to the dome in Detroit is going to be a huge advantage for Josh Allen and the Bills offense this week. They have the highest implied total on the slate at 28.75 points as this game total opened up at 44 but has since climbed to 48.5 points. The Bills have a perfect 100 rating in our Top Stacks tool, which is by far the highest on the slate with the next closest team having a 67 rating. Getting exposure to Allen in the dome feels like an easy decision this week as he has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel for quarterbacks.

This isn’t the same Browns defense as past years. Their defense ranks 31st in total DVOA per football outsiders as they are allowing 26.4 points per game, which ranks second highest in the league. After a very disappointing finish last week, expect the Bills to come out firing on all cylinders this week. Allen is averaging over 300 passing yards per game for the first time in his career, which ranks as the second highest in the league this season. He ranks third in rushing yards per game for quarterbacks as his dual-threat ability increases his floor. Take the best quarterback on the slate in the dome. It’s that simple.

RB David Montgomery – Chicago Bears

DraftKings – $6,100; 21.7% Boom | FanDuel – $6,200; 23.7% Boom

It has been a tough year for Bears running back David Montgomery. However, he has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Montgomery’s salary of $6,200 on FanDuel is egregious and makes him a high priority, especially in cash games. The elephant in the room is Khalil Herbert has been placed on injured reserve with a season-ending hip injury. Even though Montgomery started every game, Herbert led the backfield with 64.3 rushing yards per game, compared to Montgomery’s 48.2 per game. With no Herbert, this week should be the Montgomery show.

The Bears get a cupcake matchup on the road against the Falcons this week where they are three-point underdogs. This matchup has the highest total on the slate at 49.5 points as both defenses rank 29th and 30th in DVOA. It is interesting how high this total is given that both teams rank first and second in run rate with the Bears leading at 59.6% this season. Montgomery has the highest value in our Stokastic projections for running back’s this week for both sites. Justin Fields may be on another level running the ball lately, but this salary is too cheap for Montgomery’s upside in this matchup.

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WR Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings – $9,100; 10.3% Boom | FanDuel – $9,100; 11.9% Boom

Stefon Diggs is a fantastic play on DraftKings specifically and a great player to pair with Allen, but we’ll look to Vikings star wide receiver Justin Jefferson instead. He is $300 cheaper on FanDuel than Diggs and has the highest boom percentage on the slate for wide receivers. Jefferson exploded yet again last week for 10 receptions, 193 receiving yards, and one touchdown. It has now been back-to-back weeks where Jefferson had over 100 yards and found the end zone. Prioritize Jefferson on FanDuel, but priced at $9,100 on both sites, Jefferson is one of the best pay-up options on the slate.

Six of Jefferson’s nine games he has received double-digit targets. Last week he had a season-high 16 as he climbed the ladder to sixth in the league in target share with 28%. The Cowboys rank fourth in pass defense DVOA this season as Jefferson will likely be shadowed by Trevon Diggs who led the league last season with 11 interceptions. Diggs only has three this season so far, but he continues to play aggressively and gives up just as many big plays that he does taking the ball away. If Jefferson is going to see close to 15 targets again this week, he will be tough to avoid on either site.

TE Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings – $6,800; 18.3% Boom | FanDuel – $7,700; 18.8% Boom

Mark Andrews hasn’t looked healthy on the field since week six. He played through an injury in week’s seven and eight and then missed week nine before the bye, which hopefully gave him enough rest to come back healthy. Andrews has practiced on a limited basis all week, so make sure to monitor his status. If Andrews is healthy and won’t be limited, he is by far the best tight end on the slate. He has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel by nearly 6%. Lamar Jackson needs his security blanket back as the Ravens receiving core is not good.

The Ravens have won three-straight games despite basically nothing from Andrews. They get a great matchup this week playing at home against the Panthers as 13-point favorites. Their 27.25 implied total trails only the Bills on this 11-game slate. Getting exposure to the best playmaker on this Ravens team outside of Jackson feels like a necessity. The Panthers rank 27th in pass defense DVOA as they are allowing 24.3 points per game this season. Andrews leads the team in every receiving category and is a great NFL DFS play if he is healthy. If he sits, Isaiah Likely is the easiest plug-and-play on the slate.

NFL DFS Picks Week 11 Busts/Fades

QB Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals

DraftKings – $6,800; 47.4% Bust | FanDuel – $8,300; 50.9% Bust

The last two weeks the Bengals have been a bit of a struggle for Joe Burrow to play without his star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow is averaging 219 passing yards per game and has failed to top 20 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. His ceiling has fallen dramatically, as the offense has been moving heavily through running back Joe Mixon. Mixon has 41 total touches over the last two weeks and Burrow is averaging only 31.5 passing attempts per game. With so many top tier quarterbacks on this slate, it’s tough to take a chance on Burrow without Chase on the field.

On FanDuel, Burrow has a 50.9% bust percentage, as he is priced way too high. His DraftKings salary is much more reasonable, but this is a tough spot against their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Defensive end T.J. Watt has played in two games all season. The season opener against the Bengals where the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime, he had six tackles, one sack, and one interception. Then he played last week against the Saints where the Steelers defense held the Saints offense to 10 points. Having Watt on the field completely changes their defense. In their last meeting Burrow had a career-high of four picks and seven sacks. Take the fade approach with Burrow this week.

RB Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns

DraftKings – $8,200; 56.3% Bust | FanDuel – $8,400; 76.4% Bust

Despite scoring a touchdown, the fade of Nick Chubb worked last week and we’re going right back to the well again this week. Chubb is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game for the first time in his career, but has failed to top the century mark in three of his last four games. This week against the Bills who rank first in total defense DVOA won’t be any easier. Having this game moved indoors should help fantasy scoring in general, but the Browns are only implied for 20.25 points. He may be one of the best running backs in the league, but Chubb has the highest bust percentage among the elites this week.

The value in our Stokastic projections for Chubb on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week are extremely low. The Bills rank seventh in the league allowing 109.6 rushing yards per game. If the Bills get up early, it is possible Chubb gets limited carries. The Browns lost 39-17 last week and Chubb only had 11 carries. He is still only playing a little over 50% of the snaps on offense this season, as Kareem Hunt is still heavily involved, especially on passing downs. As 8.5-point underdogs, it is tough to get behind Chubb in a spot where the Browns will be trailing early and often.

WR Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings – $8,700; 56.2% Bust | FanDuel – $8,500; 40.3% Bust

This season is one to forget for the Las Vegas Raiders, who have lost three straight games and their record has fallen to 2-7. The Davante Adams and Derek Carr experience has had its ups and downs in their first year playing together since college. Adams has been very involved the last two weeks, as tight end Darren Waller is still on injured reserve. Adams’ 30.5% target share ranks second in the league, but with an implied total under 20 points, it will be tough to get any exposure to this Raiders offense. With a bust percentage of over 55% on DraftKings, Adams is one of the worst plays on the slate.

Playing against the Broncos on the road is usually not a recipe for success. They average a league-low 14.6 points per game on offense, while allowing a league-low 16.6 per game on defense. It should be no surprise that eight of their last nine games have gone under the total points line. Playing against shut-down cornerback Patrick Surtain II will also be tough on Adams. The Raiders have the fourth lowest Top Stack rating this week. Even if Adams gets peppered with targets, it is hard to pay this salary on both sites playing in a very tough game environment at Mile High.

TE Cole Kmet – Chicago Bears

DraftKings – $4,100; 55.9% Bust | FanDuel – $5,700; 57.4% Bust

All good things must come to an end. That is the story this week for Bears tight end Cole Kmet. He has had back-to-back weeks with two receiving touchdowns on only nine total receptions. For a tight end that is elite production and a few lucky breaks. The Bears still have the highest run rate in the league, as Justin Fields has had back-to-back weeks of over 140 rushing yards. He has topped 200 passing yards once in his 10 games and is averaging 148.9 per game. Kmet has been targeted frequently over the past two weeks, but his salary has risen as well as his bust percentage on both sites.

Over the first seven weeks of the season Kmet had no touchdowns and topped 40 receiving yards once during that time. A matchup against the Falcons is very enticing, but Kmet has the second-worst leverage score on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. He is in the optimal lineup 1.6% of the time on FanDuel and 1.4% of the time on DraftKings. After two great weeks and being a cheap tight end to pair with a popular quarterback, ownership is going to flock to Kmet. There are more than enough ways to get different on this slate for tight ends, even if Andrews is out.

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