NFL DFS Picks Week 11: Saquon Barkley Salary Spiking vs. Detroit

For this Sunday, DFS players get a 11-game slate to attack. This NFL DFS first look article gives an early overview of the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel and breaks down some of the best options at each position.

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NFL First Look: Week 11 NFL DFS Picks

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Quarterbacks

Justin Fields, CHI vs. ATL ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

Even at these career-high price tags, keep attacking Fields. Over the last five weeks, he is leading his position by a wide margin in carries per game (12.4), including 12 red zone rushes, which is also the most among all quarterbacks during this time. Furthermore, Fields is averaging 7 yards per attempt as a passer and has thrown for nine touchdowns and only three interceptions. With this immense role as a rusher and passer, Fields is easily leading all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (31.4) and DraftKings points per dropback over the last five weeks (0.96).

Now he gets a great matchup with the Falcons, who are giving up the second-most yards per attempt (7.4) and are the eighth-worst-graded defense on PFF. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (50 points), and Fields’ impressive run should continue in this elite environment.

Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DET ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

In a gorgeous matchup against the Lions, Jones is the best quarterback value on the slate. The Lions are third-worst-graded defense on PFF, and they are allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the league (7.8). The Giants carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (24.5 points) — which is the largest implied team of the season — and this game’s total is the fourth highest on the board (46.5 points).

While he hasn’t been the most efficient passer, Jones has been active on the ground, ranking fourth in carries per game (7.7) and fourth in red zone rushes among quarterbacks this season (14). Overall, he ranks 11th in DraftKings points per dropback (0.51) and has scored at least 18 DraftKings points in four of his nine starts this season. Opposing quarterbacks having exceeded 20 DraftKings points at a 60% clip against the Lions this season, and Jones is a safe bet to accomplish this feat this Sunday.

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Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. DET ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel)

Barkley is worth the large investment in this dream spot against the Lions, who are yielding the third-most yards per rush (5.3) and fourth-most touchdowns rushing to running backs (11). This season, Barkley ranks first in snap rate (82.4%), second in carries per game (22) and seventh in red zone rushes among running backs (25). He has also run a route on 69% of his team’s dropbacks and gained a target on 17% of his routes.

In addition to the Giants’ implied team total ranking fourth on the slate (24.5 points), they are 3-point home favorites. As a favorite, Barkley has been dominant throughout his career, generating 26.4 DraftKings points per game and exceeding 20 DraftKings points in 10 of 12 starts.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. PIT ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

While slightly overpriced on FanDuel, Mixon is far too cheap on DraftKings. He ranks sixth in carries per game (16.8) and first in red zone attempts (30) while playing 72.2% of the snaps. Additionally, Mixon has garnered a target on 23% of his routes while running a route on 57% of his team’s dropbacks.

Going against the Steelers this Sunday, the Bengals’ implied team total is tied for the fifth highest on the slate (23.5 points) and they are 4.5-point favorites. Over the last three seasons, Mixon is supplying 22.1 DraftKings when Cincinnati has been favored (18 games).

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. LAR ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

While this matchup is far from perfect, with the Rams defense grading third best on PFF, Kamara has to be considered at these depressed salaries. In his eight starts this season, Kamara has averaged 14 carries per game — including 10 red zone rushes — while logging 72.5% of the snaps. His usage in the passing game has also been outstanding, running a route on 65% of his team’s dropbacks and seeing a target on 29% of those routes.

The Saints are 3.5-point home favorites over Los Angeles this Sunday, and Kamara averages 21.6 DraftKings points per game as a home favorite for his career (36 games), including three straight performances of over 20 DraftKings points. Scoring single-digit DraftKings points in back-to-back starts, Kamara shouldn’t be highly owned and is a sharp target for GPPs in this bounce-back spot.

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Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. MIN ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

In a potential shootout against the Vikings, Lamb needs to be a core play this week. This game’s total is second highest on the slate (47.5 points), and the Cowboys’ implied team total is the fourth largest on the board (24.5 points). Minnesota’s defense is surrendering the fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.3), and Lamb ranks second in target share this season (32.4%), including a whopping 15 targets this past week against the Packers. That resulted in a career-best 41 DraftKings points for Lamb. His ceiling is massive again this Sunday, and he is arguably the best flex value on the slate.

Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. LV ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

In the likely situation that Jerry Jeudy (ankle) is inactive this Sunday, Sutton will be a terrific option. Jeudy was quickly ruled out last week after spraining his ankle early in the first quarter, and after he exited, Sutton racked up a team-high 11 targets against the Titans. He would be a lock for double-digit targets if Jeudy is sidelined this Sunday and would bring terrific upside against this Raiders defense that is giving up the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.3). Even with Jeudy active, Sutton exposed this Las Vegas defense for five catches, 52 yards and a touchdown back in Week 4 (16.2 DraftKings points).

Bennett Skowronek, LAR vs. NO ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)

With Cooper Kupp (ankle) expected to be out and Matthew Stafford (concussion) likely to return, Skowronek is an excellent value play. After Kupp exited this past Sunday, Skowronek saw seven targets and led the Rams in routes run (39) with John Wolford at quarterback. While there is no data for Stafford being under center with Kupp inactive this season, Skowronek should see plenty of targets as Los Angeles’ primary slot receiver.

This season, Skowronek has run 47.3% of his routes from the slot, which ranks second on the team, only behind Kupp (55.6%). Even with Kupp active, Skowronek has scored double-digit DraftKings points in three of eight games with Stafford as his quarterback this season. Particularly on DraftKings, where players are rewarded a full point per reception, Skowronek is a necessary play that helps to squeeze in multiple studs.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz, DAL vs. MIN ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

Schultz is a no-brainer in this outstanding spot against the Vikings. As noted above, this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (47.5 points), and Minnesota is allowing the fourth-most yards per pass attempt this season (7.3). In four games Dak Prescott has started this season, Schultz has been targeted on 26% of his routes, which would rank second among tight ends if this were his average for the season, only trailing Mark Andrews (29%). This incredible usage simply isn’t reflected in Schultz’s current price points, and he should easily beat these salaries this weekend.

Cole Kmet, CHI vs. ATL ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

While Kmet is going to be chalky, he is unavoidable at these low price tags, especially if rostering Fields. Kmet has been the main beneficiary during this tremendous run for Fields, finding the end zone five times across his last three games. During these three starts, Kmet has run a route on 77% of Field’s dropbacks and has obtained a target on 21% of those routes. That includes five red zone targets, which ranks third in the league over this span.

As for his matchup, on top of yielding the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.4), the Falcons are allowing the third-most catches (59) and yards to tight ends this season (588). With the Bears likely to rely on their passing game more than usual as 3-point underdogs in this slate-high total, Kmet’s third consecutive effort of over 20 DraftKings points is a legitimate possibility.

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