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NFL DFS Week 13 First Look: Joe Burrow the Bane of the Chiefs’ Existence

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Ahead of Sunday’s 12-game slate, this NFL DFS first look article provides an early look at DraftKings and FanDuel main slates and evaluates some of the top options at each position.

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NFL First Look: Week 13 NFL DFS Picks

As always, be sure to watch all of the Stokastic NFL shows on the Stokastic YouTube Channel all the way up to lock to get the breaking news and best Week 13 NFL DFS picks.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow, CIN vs. KC ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

With Ja’Marr Chase (hip) returning and this home matchup with the Chiefs boasting the highest total on the slate (52.5 points), Burrow is a great spend this week. He ranks eighth in yards per attempt (7.7) and second in touchdowns passing this season (23). Burrow has flashed major upside, eclipsing 30 DraftKings points in 3 of 11 starts and averaged 29.7 DraftKings points per game in two matchups with Kansas City last season. Plus, the quarterback is averaging 24.3 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 50 points (seven games) and has been 4.2 DraftKings points per game better on his home turf opposed to when on the road for his career. This is an eruption spot for Burrow, and he may get overlooked in GPPs given the depth at quarterback this week.

Mike White, NYJ vs. MIN ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

Drawing the start over Zach Wilson this past Sunday, White was terrific, completing 78.6% of his passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, resulting in 27.8 DraftKings points in the win over the Bears. In four career starts, White is now averaging an efficient 8.7 yards per attempt and has thrown seven touchdowns to four interceptions. Coming off the 21-point win, White should remain the Jets’ starting quarterback this Sunday and gets another beautiful matchup against the Vikings, who are giving up the most yards per pass attempt this season (7.8). This game’s total is the sixth highest on the slate (45.5 points) and White is a great way to save at quarterback in this juicy spot.

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Running Backs

Nick Chubb, CLE vs. HOU ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel)

Since returning from their bye, the Browns have heavily relied on Chubb, giving him 17 carries per game — which is 76% of the team’s running back carries — including five red zone attempts over the last three weeks. Chubb has played 54.3% of the snaps during this time and has run a route on 36% of his team’s dropbacks, gaining a target on 17% of those routes. After tearing up the Buccaneers for 23.2 DraftKings points this past Sunday, Chubb meets a Texans defense that is the second-worst-graded unit on PFF and has yielded the fifth-most yards per rush (4.9). The Browns’ implied team total is tied for the highest on the slate (27.5) and they are seven-point favorites. For his career, Chubb is producing 21.1 DraftKings points per game when Cleveland has been favorited and carried an implied team total of at least 25 points (15 points).

Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. CIN ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

In his first start since Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) was placed on IR, Pacheco received a huge role as the Chiefs’ top back in Week 12, carrying the ball 22 times — including an eye popping 12 red zone attempts — while playing 51.3% of the snaps. He also ran a route on 30% of his team’s dropbacks. Pacheco is averaging a solid 0.34 DraftKings points per snap this season and should see a minimum of 15 touches in a terrific setting against the Bengals this Sunday. In addition to this game’s total being the highest on the slate (52.5 points), Kansas City’s implied team total is the largest on the board (27.5 points) and they are two-point favorites. Pacheco is far too cheap for his upside and is an excellent, affordable way to gain a share of this slate-best environment.

Latavius Murray, DEN vs. BAL ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)

While this isn’t an ideal spot against the Ravens, who are giving up the fourth fewest yards per rush (3.9), Murray has to be considered given his current role. With Melvin Gordon released and Chase Edmonds (ankle) on IR, Murray led the Broncos with 13 carries last Sunday — including two red zone rushes — while logging 81.7% of the snaps. Additionally, while the only garnered one target, Murray ran a route on 65% of his team’s dropbacks. This is truly an elite role and Murray should have no trouble beating his cheap salaries this weekend, despite the difficult matchup with Baltimore. He ranks 19th among running backs in DraftKings points per snap this season (0.37) and is averaging 12.4 DraftKings points per game when he gets double-digit carries.

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Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN vs. KC ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel)

Chase is expected to make his return from a four-game absence Sunday, just in time for this shootout against the Chiefs. On top of this contest’s being the highest on the slate (52.5 points), the Bengals’ implied team total is tied for the second largest on the board (26.5 points). This season, Chase is leading Cincinnati with a 27.7% target share and ranks sixth among receivers in red zone targets (14). Chase owns a career average of 26.1 DraftKings points per game in totals of at least 50 points (five games) and is worth paying up for in his return.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. JAX ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

At these price points, St. Brown is a no-brainer for Week 13. He has been targeted on 32% of his routes this season, including nine red zone targets. This Jacksonville defense St. Brown is facing is surrendering the seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.1) and this game’s total ranks second on the slate (51.5 points). Furthermore, the Lions’ implied team total is tied for the second largest on the board (26.5 points) and they will be on their home turf. At home this season, St. Brown is averaging 23.4 DraftKings points per game.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. MIN ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)

In his first start with White under center, Wilson was targeted on 29% of his routes last Sunday. He led the Jets in targets with eight — including two red zone targets — while no other player on the team saw more than three targets. Wilson should continue to operate as White’s main target going forward and is an elite value play in this prime matchup against the Vikings. Not only is Minnesota surrendering the most yards per pass attempt (7.8), but they are also allowing the most yards (2,173) and fourth-most catches to receivers this season (160).

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Tight Ends

David Njoku, CLE vs. HOU ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

After seeing limited work in Week 11 due to an ankle injury, Njoku was unlocked this past Sunday, running a route on 74% of dropbacks and seeing a target on 25% of those routes, including three targets over 20 yards and two red zone targets. He has been targeted on 21% of his routes this season and not only is this great matchup for Njoku, with the Texans allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.1), he sees a quarterback upgrade this Sunday, going from Jacoby Brissett to Deshaun Watson. Njoku should effortlessly out produce these low price tags and is an awesome, cheap way to attack this Browns’ squad that is tied for the highest implied team total on the slate (27.5 points).

Foster Moreau, LV vs. LAC ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Moreau remains far too cheap for his role with Darren Waller (hamstring) on IR and is easily one of the best tight end values on the slate in this matchup with the Chargers that sports the third-highest total on the slate (50.5 points). With Waller sidelined since Week 5, Moreau has run a route on 90% of his team’s dropbacks and has garnered a target on 17% of those routes, including five red zone targets during this six-game span. Los Angeles’ defense is the fifth-worst-graded unit on PFF, and Moreau should return value with double-digit fantasy points in this plus spot.

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