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NFL DFS Picks Week 4: Jamaal Williams & Mark Andrews Are Top Boom Plays in High-Scoring Matchups (October 2)

Tyler Schmidt

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Every NFL slate is a unique puzzle and what stands out this week is the lack of top-end wide receivers. So many studs are playing in island games and not on the main slate. Take that into account as you read through this article and make your lineups.

With many different ways to attack this slate, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions for NFL DFS picks.

Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.

NFL DFS Picks Week 4: Best High-Upside Plays

Boom Picks

QB Marcus Mariota – Atlanta Falcons

DraftKings – $5,600; 15.1% Boom | FanDuel – $7,300; 11.8% Boom

There are some elite quarterbacks on the main slate, but the value of Marcus Mariota is impossible to ignore. This matchup between the Falcons and Browns has the third-highest total on the slate at 47.5 points. The dual-threat ability of Mariota boosts his ceiling and makes his salary very inviting, especially on DraftKings. Mariota has the highest leverage score on both DraftKings and FanDuel for all quarterbacks, while also having the highest and second-highest boom percentage. He has five touchdowns total thus far, which includes three passing and two rushing. A whopping 25 rushing attempts through three weeks also provides a really safe floor to Mariota’s projections.

In his lone home game this season against the Saints, Mariota scored a season-high 20.8 DraftKings points. He rushed for 72 yards and did not throw an interception like in his two road games. The Falcons may be a home underdog, but the Browns haven’t shown that much promise defensively, as they rank 23rd in DVOA. They may also be without stud defensive end Myles Garrett, who leads the Browns in sacks the last six years. With running back Cordarrelle Patterson not practicing yet this week due to a knee injury, Mariota may need to rush even more as rookie Tyler Allgeier, who has only 16 rushing attempts, is the only healthy back. Seeing these boom percentages, paying down for Mariota may be the optimal way to go this week.

RB Jamaal Williams – Detroit Lions

DraftKings – $6,100; 30.9% Boom | FanDuel – $7,400; 24.3% Boom

Looking for a chalk cash-game running back? Look no further than Lions back-up Jamaal Williams. Our projections have this and it is believed that starter D’Andre Swift is going to miss this week and maybe even next week as he looks to get fully healthy with a shoulder injury. Swift’s injury will pave the way for a heavy Williams workload in a great matchup against the Seahawks. Williams has already been heavily involved and is tied with Nick Chubb for the most rushing touchdowns through three weeks. His target share of 4.5% has been disappointing, but that may increase this week as well if Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark, who also missed Thursday’s practice, are ruled out.

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Williams leads the entire slate with by far the highest boom percentage for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Expect his ownership to rise throughout the week, but his optimal percentage and leverage score right now are popping off the charts. This Lions offense has been humming to start the season. They rank third in total yards and second in points per game. A home matchup against the Seahawks, who rank 30th in defense DVOA, can only boost those numbers. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 48 points. When we see the ownership on Sunday when the slate locks, there is a strong chance Williams is the highest-owned player. Don’t let that keep you away. Williams is a coach’s dream. In his 848 career touches, he only has ONE fumble! His salary and ownership are currently way too low.

WR CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings – $6,700; 11.6% Boom | FanDuel – $6,800; 11.5% Boom

We go from two of the highest game totals to one of the lowest with the Cowboys hosting the Commanders at 41.5 points. The Cowboys are favored by three points as they haven’t slowed down despite losing their franchise quarterback to injury for a few weeks. Cooper Rush has done a great job filling in and is 3-0 as a starter the last two seasons. As long as Rush keeps peppering CeeDee Lamb with targets, that’s all we care about. Lamb is the only player in the league who has at least 11 targets in each game this season. He only has one touchdown and has averaged 63.7 receiving yards per game, but as long as volume continues to be there, then Lamb is a great buy-low candidate.

The Commanders have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and points per game through the first three games. Their only win was a surprise comeback at home against the Jaguars. Stud wide receivers have torched this secondary so far. Christian Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Devonta Smith averaged 7.7 receptions, 133.7 receiving yards and one touchdown per game. This defense ranks 28th in pass DVOA and as long as Lamb stays highly involved in the offense, he should torch this Commanders secondary. Lamb’s price looks much better on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest boom percentage at wide receiver. This position is lacking star power given that so many top wide receivers are on primetime slates this week, but Lamb is a great option. He leads the Cowboys with a very impressive 32.7% target share.

TE Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings – $7,100; 25.0% Boom | FanDuel – $8,400; 24.0% Boom

With Travis Kelce not on the main slate, we find ourselves in another situation where it is Mark Andrews and then a plethora of cheap options that don’t come close to the upside that Andrews provides. After a relatively disappointing Week 1, Andrews has bounced back with two very strong games as he continues to be the main target for quarterback Lamar Jackson. It is pretty crazy that a tight end ranks 13th in receiving yards and second in touchdowns, but Andrews is off to a great start. He has a 35.2% target share thus far and has had double-digit targets over the past two weeks. His 71% catch rate displays that most of his targets are valuable. Andrews has the second-highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel and by far the highest among the tight end position.

This matchup between the Ravens and Bills is the highest total on the slate at 51 points. It is tough to see either defense stopping these juggernaut offenses. The Bills rank second in DVOA this season, but their secondary is decimated with injuries. They will be without their top cornerback and top safety, while their other safety is questionable after missing last week. Not a great time to be facing arguably the best tight end in the league. The price tag is rising, but the lack of options at not only tight end, but at wide receiver, this week makes Andrews a fantastic play. His boom percentage is more than double the next closest tight end. Make room to fit this elite player into your lineups this week.


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Busts/Fades

QB Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

DraftKings – $7,600; 64.4% Bust | FanDuel – $7,800; 45.0% Bust

This is the second time in four weeks that Kyler Murray has appeared in this bust quarterback section. Murray’s price seems a little too high, especially when he hasn’t been running nearly as much as he did in past seasons. In 2020, Murray had 8.3 rushing attempts per game, 6.3 in 2021 and 4.0 this season. That drops his ceiling and floor considerably, especially when he isn’t the greatest passer. He has a career-low in quarterback rating, QBR, completion percentage and average yards per completion. It is hard to justify paying Murray’s salary when he is ranked so closely to his elite peers. Murray had a career-high 58 passing attempts in his last game and he still failed to throw a touchdown pass.

For the quarterback position, Murray has the second-worst leverage score on DraftKings and is tied for the worst on FanDuel. One benefit for the Cardinals is they may be getting Rondale Moore back from injury. However, with AJ Green doubtful to play, the Cardinals may be starting the smallest wide receiver group ever. A lot of gadget slot wide receivers are going to make this matchup difficult going against the Panthers, who rank 14th in defensive DVOA. The Cardinals also started as a -1.5 favorite, but that has flipped to the Panthers, as well as the total, from 46.5 to 43.5 points. There are plenty of pay-up options at quarterback and some solid value plays. Take your chances there instead of Murray, who has limited upside when he’s not running the ball.

RB Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans

DraftKings – $8,300; 60.8% Bust | FanDuel – $8,600; 43.7% Bust

Paying up for running back has not worked out in DFS this season yet, but the prices are slowly coming down. Derrick Henry‘s price has stayed around the same as he is coming off of his best game of the season. Henry had 20 rushing attempts for 85 yards and one touchdown. However, the most encouraging part was his five receptions after having zero and only one target over the first two games. That is the biggest concern coming into this week against the Colts, who rank second in rush defense DVOA. Henry is a completely different beast, but for him to touch his ceiling he has to gain 100+ rushing yards and get into the end zone at least one time. That is going to be put to the test against the Colts’ defense.

Playing Henry on FanDuel, where his receptions don’t mean as much and his salary is reasonable, makes sense. However, on DraftKings, Henry has the second-worst leverage score on the entire slate. With the Titans implied for under 20 points, it is tough to justify paying this salary for Henry. With Ryan Tannehill still under center, this offense can be tough to watch. They have only scored 17 points per game and accumulated 302.3 yards per game, which ranks as the seventh-lowest in the league. These two teams will be playing slowly. This year, the Titans rank 31st in pace and ranked 27th last season. The Colts, on the other hand, are playing quicker this year but were 31st in pace last season. Henry could easily get 20+ rushing attempts, but the fade is the right play in this difficult running matchup, especially if the Titans fall behind early.

WR Devin Duvernay – Baltimore Ravens

DraftKings – $4,100; 61.5% Bust | FanDuel – $5,700; 69.2% Bust

Fading Ravens wide receiver Devin Duvernay isn’t necessarily a hot take, but he may draw some unneeded attention at his cheap salary, especially on DraftKings. As previously mentioned, this game has the highest total on the slate and there are not many expensive wide receivers to pay up for. The same fade could be said for fellow wide receivers, Rashod Bateman and Demarcus Robinson. They all look like extremely bad options in our Boom/Bust Tool, but Duvernay has the highest bust percentage. He has seen two targets in back-to-back weeks and has a 9.1% target share this season, which is slightly better than last season, but not a strong enough number to gain traction.

The Bills do have secondary injuries, but Duvernay is simply not involved in this offense lately. Andrews is the top target followed by Bateman and backup tight end Isaiah Likely has seen more targets than Duvernay. The good thing for Duvernay is that he has caught all eight targets, but still only has 121 total receiving yards. There are plenty of cheap wide receivers to choose from on this slate, so there is no need to go to Duvernay. Running back J.K. Dobbins also returned from injury for the Ravens as they may look to establish the run a little more this week to keep the ball out of the hands of Josh Allen. The cheap salary and high team total may be enticing, but there are more valuable wide receiver options on this slate.

TE Darren Waller  – Las Vegas Raiders

DraftKings – $5,600; 57.3% Bust | FanDuel – $6,500; 46.5% Bust

Coming into the season, the Raiders were certainly not a team I had in mind to have the worst record in the league up to this point. They have lost all three games by a combined 13 points. It won’t get much easier this week facing the Broncos, who have the fifth-highest defense DVOA to start the season. With Davante Adams now in town, Darren Waller‘s upside seems to have taken a massive hit so far. Through three games, Waller is only averaging 6.3 targets per game, compared to 8.5 per game last season and 9.1 per game in 2020 when he had his career-best year. It is only a matter of time until this offense starts clicking, but this game against the Broncos feels like a slow-paced slugfest.

Waller is the second-highest-priced tight end on the main slate but has the worst leverage score on DraftKings and the second-worst on FanDuel. With his salary a little bit in a dead zone, Waller is still projected for a decent amount of ownership, but his optimal percentage on both sites is extremely low. The Broncos have only allowed 170 passing yards per game, which ranks as the third-lowest in the league. They have also allowed 12 points per game. The Raiders are implied for double that this week, but don’t be surprised if they went under that team total. With Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson unable to cook, the defense has had to bail them out in many situations. Based on what we have seen thus far, it is tough to get behind Waller on this slate.

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