The Week 7 NFL DFS slate looks wide open, and the latest Stokastic Sims prove it. After running thousands of simulated DraftKings lineups, we pulled the top 150 lineups (each with at least three unique players) to find where the true edge lies. What stood out most is, this isn’t a slate dominated by one superstar. Instead, the NFL DFS Week 7 picks and stacks lean on mid-tier efficiency, rookie volatility and a few sneaky stacks that could separate the sharps from the field.
NFL DFS Week 7 Picks: Best Stacks and Leverage Plays from Sims
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Quarterbacks: Caleb Williams Is King
The Sims weren’t subtle about it: Caleb Williams (68 lineups) absolutely crushed every other quarterback in exposure. His dual-threat profile and aggressive downfield passing give him the highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Behind him, a cluster of value options popped:
- Justin Fields (17) — Rushing floor, leverage off Williams chalk.
- Justin Herbert (16) — Correlated with expensive WRs, strong in game stacks.
- Jayden Daniels (14) — Intriguing pivot for tournament builds.
The Sims essentially said, pay for ceiling (Williams) or pivot for leverage … no middle ground. High-priced quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes (6) and Jalen Hurts (4) barely registered, which shows that roster construction efficiency is the key to NFL DFS Week 7 stacks.
Running Backs: Three Workhorses Dominate
The Week 7 NFL DFS picks at running back are crystal clear:
- Javonte Williams (98 lineups): The slate’s most consistent workhorse, projecting as the top overall RB in value and raw volume.
- Quinshon Judkins (88): Underpriced rookie upside, appearing in nearly 60% of high-ROI simulations.
- Breece Hall (86): Explosive game-breaking potential, projecting for heavy touches and receiving work.
Below that core tier sit the mid-range pivots:
- D’Andre Swift (33): Salary-relief back tied to higher-tempo offense.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (24): Emerging contrarian play with cheap volume.
- Josh Jacobs (17): Leverage off the mid-tier chalk.
Leverage insight: Judkins and Swift create perfect GPP pivots away from the Williams/Hall chalk. That said, Williams and Hall appear in way more top-150 lineups than the projected ownership, so they too provide leverage.
Wide Receivers: CeeDee Lamb Leads a Concentrated Pool
No surprises here. CeeDee Lamb (71 lineups) dominated exposure, followed by Chris Olave (59). Both graded out as elite plays across pricing tiers, forming the backbone of most optimal NFL DFS Week 7 stacks.
The next layer tells a story of how DFS balance manifests in projection models:
- Rashee Rice (36): Affordable stacking piece tied to Mahomes’ efficiency.
- Justin Jefferson (33) and Rome Odunze (33): Premium one-off, Odunze has ceiling correlation.
- Michael Pittman Jr. (31): Salary-friendly route hog, ideal in secondary stacks.
Value one-offs and leverage pivots:
- Olamide Zaccheaus (27): Salary-saving stacking piece with Williams.
- D.J. Moore (21): Correlation with Williams, undervalued by field.
- Ladd McConkey (20) and Quentin Johnston (19): Low-owned differentiators in high-total games, stack options with Herbert.
Tight Ends: Trey McBride Is Still That Guy
The Sims crowned Trey McBride (84 lineups) as the undisputed TE1 for Week 7. No one else came close.
After him:
- Mason Taylor (51): Elite per-dollar value.
- Tyler Warren (40): Correlated with contrarian Colts stack, but good as a one-off.
Deep tournament pivots include Michael Mayer (10) and Tucker Kraft (5), both projecting for strong ROI in lineups that fade McBride chalk.
Defenses: Broncos Chalk, But Pay Attention to Value
DST exposure in Sims was more spread out than usual:
- Broncos (37 lineups): Slate’s preferred chalk defense.
- Dolphins (22): Elite upside against turnover-prone opponent.
- Browns (16): Mid-range contrarian play.
Best NFL DFS Week 7 Stacks
From a stacking perspective, three team archetypes dominated the top 150 lineups:
- Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze + Olamide Zaccheaus
- Justin Fields + Mason Taylor + Breece Hall
- Justin Herbert + Ladd McConkey + Quentin Johnston
One-Offs and Leverage NFL DFS Picks
- Quinshon Judkins: Rookie breakout candidate and top contrarian RB.
- Trey McBride: By far the top tight end, still has leverage despite chalk.
- Tyler Warren: TE pivot in non-McBride lineups.
- Chris Olave: Less ownership than Lamb but comparable top-150 exposure.
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