Utilizing Stokastic’s NFL boom/bust probability tool as a guide, we can see how likely players are to reach their ceilings and floors in the featured Week 3 NFL DFS tournaments, relative to their median projections. In this weekly tool analysis, we will run through a few of the highest-rated NFL DFS upside picks for the daily fantasy football slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The weather could have a bigger impact than normal in Week 3, so be sure to do your due diligence on that before you finalize your lineups. On Sunday morning, when we have a clearer picture about the weather, and who will and won’t play, we will return with an updated overview of the boom and bust probability data.
See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us Week 3 DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 3 High-Upside Boom Plays
Stokastic will keep finetuning projections, so the data is sure to change here and there, especially if important news comes out. Check back to this space on Sunday for a final look at the Week 3 boom probability ratings for DraftKings and FanDuel.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 3 Boom Probability Final Sunday Update
Across the entire player pool, here is an updated look at the boom probabilities on DraftKings and FanDuel main slates:
Top 8 Boom Probabilities on DK: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Joshua Kelley, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Kirk Cousins
Top 8 Boom Probabilities on FD: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Joshua Kelley, T.J. Hockenson, Patrick Mahomes, Ravens D/ST, Kirk Cousins
Projections may be updated again before lock. As you get your Week 3 lineups set, make the most of our free NFL DFS content on the NFL homepage, premium DFS tools including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 3 Boom Probability Sunday Update #2
11:05 AM ET:
Projections have been updated. A look at the top eight in DraftKings boom probability across all positions for Week 3 NFL DFS:
Another update coming soon!
As you get your Week 3 lineups set, make the most of our free NFL DFS content on the NFL homepage, premium DFS tools including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 3 Boom Probability Sunday Update #1
First Sunday update (10:05 AM ET):
There is expected poor weather in multiple games in Week 3, so make sure you check how playing conditions will be impacted across the slate.
With news that Jaylen Waddle will miss out, Tyreek Hill has jumped into the top spot at a shade under 30% in boom probability on DraftKings. The rest of the top five include Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen and Kirk Cousins.
On FanDuel, Kelce is first in Week 3 boom probability percentage at a salary of $8,000, with Hill ($9,600), Jefferson ($9,700), Cousins ($7,800) and T.J. Hockenson ($7,500) taking up spots two through five.
NFL player projections will continue to be updated, so we will keep adding to this space with more analysis. Check back soon!
NFL DFS Picks – Week 3 High-Upside Plays
At time of writing, it’s tight end Travis Kelce who leads the whole player pool in boom probability on both DraftKings ($7,200) and FanDuel ($8,000), with Justin Jefferson ($9,300 on DK and $9,700 on FD) close on his heels and Keenan Allen and Kirk Cousins also near the top of the DK pool.
Below is a further examination of more of the top boom and bust probabilities across all positions for Week 3 NFL DFS.
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins
DraftKings – $6,900; 12.8% Boom | FanDuel – $7,800; 11.6% Boom
The Vikings are rating out as one of the best team stacks for Week 3, so it’s understandable Kirk Cousins owns one of the highest boom probabilities in the entire player pool. The Minnesota quarterback is just ahead of Patrick Mahomes in the DraftKings and FanDuel QB boom ratings heading into a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Chargers at home.
As expected, Cousins and teammate Justin Jefferson also have some of the highest projected ownerships on DK and FD. We’ll be seeing a lot of stacking on both sides of this game in general, which has a sky-high total of 54 points and a close spread. The Vikings, favored by a point, have the lowest expected rush percentage on the slate at 32.6% as they go head-to-head with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and company.
Running Back: Travis Etienne Jr.
DraftKings – $6,900; 12.1% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 10.4% Boom
After totaling 1,125 rushing yards, 316 receiving yards and five touchdowns as a rookie, Travis Etienne Jr. hasn’t quite produced to his customary level so far in 2023. He was solid with 18 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown and five receptions for 27 yards in Week 1 against the Colts, but then had only 12 carries for 40 yards and two catches for two yards in Week 2’s loss to the Chiefs.
For Week 3, Etienne Jr. is in a great-looking spot against the 0-2 Texans. Jacksonville is one of the biggest favorites on the NFL odds board (-8.5), putting the second-year pro in prime position for production. The versatile back currently has one of the highest boom probabilities at the position at $6,900 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel. For now, projected ownership has Etienne Jr. down for 15.8% ownership on DK for this Sunday.
Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson
DraftKings – $9,300; 20.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,700; 21.4% Boom
We praised Justin Jefferson in our Week 3 wide receiver writeup, and as of Saturday, he’s still the king of the position in boom probability. We have already discussed the appeal of the Chargers-Vikings matchup, and the star wideout has been as excellent as ever through the first two weeks of the season even though he hasn’t found pay dirt.
Through two weeks, Jefferson has 20 receptions on 25 targets for 309 receiving yards, and he’s played 99% of the team’s snaps. You’ll have to pay a pretty penny, and ownership will be high on both sites, but his immense ceiling (Stokastic shows a mark of 31.7 on DraftKings right now) is hard to get past when building NFL DFS tournament lineups for Week 3.
Tight End: Travis Kelce
DraftKings – $7,200; 25.9% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 27.9% Boom
Whenever Travis Kelce is on a main slate, it’s more than likely he’s going to show up in this spot. Kelce and the Chiefs will take on the Bears in Week 3, and Kansas City is currently favored by 12.5 points at home with an implied total of 30.5 points, the highest of any team by three points. He returned to the field after having to sit out Week 1 with a knee injury and scored a touchdown while playing 64% of the snaps in the team’s win over the Jaguars.
Kelce, who’s north of 25% in boom probability on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 3, got through last weekend without any kind of injury setback and now gets a crack at a Bears team that’s been in disarray early on this season.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 3 Lower-Upside Situations
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for each NFL DFS slate. Each week we will take a look at two such situations to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
NFL Weather Impacts
It looks like adverse weather could have a sizable impact in multiple cities this Sunday, so that will be something else to track closely. As of Saturday, the largest concerns are in the Ravens/Colts, Jets/Patriots and Commanders/Bills games, but there are others that could see rain and/or wind too.
Considering there are some highly relevant DFS options involved, including Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Stefon Diggs, it will be highly important to stay on top of the latest updates and adjust lineups as needed.
On DraftKings, Allen currently has a 1.9% boom probability and 58.2% bust probability for Week 3 against Washington, with Jackson at a 5.8% boom probability and 42.9% bust probability versus Indianapolis and Diggs sporting a 6.7% boom probability and 49.7% bust probability.
If we shift to the NYJ/NE matchup, there are a few pieces showing on the positive side of the boom/bust ratings. The Jets D/ST, Rhamondre Stevenson and Patriots D/ST all have boom percentages of over 5% on both sites. Garrett Wilson, who owns a 29.9% target share through two games, has a boom probability of 1.7% and a bust probability of 62.1% on DK.
This game has a total of 39.5, with the Browns implied for 21.5 points and the Titans implied for 18. Nick Chubb is done for the year, so it’s Jerome Ford who steps in as the primary back for the Browns. Cleveland also re-brought Kareem Hunt into the mix for additional support.
While Ford is still relatively cheap and will get a bulk of the work out of the backfield, this is not the best matchup against the Titans. He has a 2.6% boom probability and 37.3% bust probability on DK. Elsewhere, Amari Cooper has shed any doubts about his Week 3 availability, as he does not carry an injury designation for the weekend. He has a 4.0% boom probability and 46.4% bust probability on DraftKings.
On the Tennessee side, Derrick Henry saw his snap count rise from 48% in the season opener to 71% last Sunday. He is at a 2.8% boom probability and 53.3% bust probability at $7,400 on DK, and a 2.2% boom probability and 46.9% bust probability at $8,400 on FD.
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As of Saturday afternoon, the Titans D/ST (7.3%), Browns D/ST (6.9%), Chig Okonkwo (5.2%), David Njoku (5.1%) and Amari Cooper (4.0%) have the highest DK boom probabilities in this particular Week 3 encounter. Quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson are at 0.7% and 1.3% DK boom ratings respectively, while DeAndre Hopkins (questionable) has a 1.6% boom probability and 57.8% bust probability at $6,300 on DK.
REMEMBER: Stay up to date with the weather, player news and projection updates leading up to lock so can make the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more information comes out, so we’ll return with another look at the numbers on Sunday morning.
You can also chat daily fantasy football strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!