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Week 12 NFL DFS Value Picks: Jimmy Garoppolo Clicking With His Pass Catchers




NFL DFS Value Picks Week 12: Jimmy Garoppolo Clicking w/ Receivers

There is an 11-game main slate for Week 12, and below are the best NFL DFS value picks on the slate using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays generate the best point-per-dollar value. With fewer games on the main slate than usual, make sure to utilize the best NFL Betting Tools in the market.

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Week 12 NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays

QB Geno Smith – $6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel

Smith is in a prime afternoon matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank last in both total DVOA (17.2%) and pass DVOA (32.5%), per Football Outsiders. The Raiders’ league-worst pass DVOA scores a full 10.7 points lower than any other team in the NFL. On the season, they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game (21.8) to the quarterback position while surrendering 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 24.2 points per game.

Smith’s ownership is near the top among quarterbacks, but it is justified given his value on both sites. This game shares the highest total on the slate (47.5), favoring Seattle at home by 3.5 points. The Seahawks are popping in Stokastic’s Top NFL DFS Stacks, and it explains all the attention going to this game stack. Stacking Smith with highly owned running back Kenneth Walker III is viable, but don’t be surprised if Smith vultures a touchdown against this Las Vegas defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns rushing to quarterbacks (4) on the year.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,800

Priced as QB12 on DraftKings and QB15 on FanDuel, Garoppolo is hot off a four-touchdown performance on Monday night. A condensed target share of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey resulted in Garoppolo’s second game with a 130-plus passer rating in the three weeks since McCaffrey arrived.

San Francisco has the second-highest implied team total (26.75) on the slate and is facing a Saints defense with a significant injury report. Matthew Stafford dissected New Orleans despite a depleted wide receiver corps prior to being evaluated for a concussion in the second half. Garoppolo is more than capable of exploiting a defense that has the fourth-highest yards per attempt (8.1) in the league. The beauty of the Kyle Shanahan offense is that yards after catch are almost guaranteed, as receivers are averaging 4.11 yards after catch per target (fifth) from Garoppolo this season. His projected value is not seeing respectable ownership early in the week, making him potentially under-owned and a solid pivot from Smith or Tom Brady.

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RB Antonio Gibson – $5,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

Gibson looks like the top value option at the position on both sites. While his snap share (46.3%) warrants his price tag, the 121 carries (21st) and 44 targets (eighth) grant Gibson the 14th-most weighted opportunities (141.7) among running backs on the season, per Player Profiler. His 26 red zone touches are the 13th most at the position, and Gibson’s production in the passing game (7.7 yards per reception) has forced teams to show a lighter box when defending his personnel groupings.

The Atlanta Falcons do not pose a difficult matchup having allowed 400.5 yards (29th) and 24.9 points (27th) per game on the year. While it may seem insignificant, this play gets better if Chase Young is active, as he will steal extra possessions for the Commanders in a game with a total of 41.5 favoring Washington at home by 4 points.

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RB Isiah Pacheco – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel

Pacheco captured everyone’s attention during training camp and has now secured an even split with Jerick McKinnon in the Kansas City Chiefs backfield. The Chiefs prefer McKinnon on third downs and when trailing but side with Pacheco on early downs and when they have the lead. In a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams where the hosting Chiefs are favored by 14.5 points, expect Pacheco to get a majority of the work. Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffered a high ankle sprain last week but is currently listed as questionable; his official ruling would secure Pacheco’s workload.

Pacheco saw 31 carries over the last two games, and he was able to produce 189 scoreless yards and 6.1 yards per rush. With no pass game work since Week 9 or touchdowns since Week 1, it feels as if Pacheco is due for a breakout.

WR Garrett Wilson – $4,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Now with three straight weeks of a growing snap share (93.1), Wilson will be catching passes from Mike White for the first time in his career. Wilson had popped for two consecutive weeks of being WR15 or better before his dud last week in which Zach Wilson went 9-for-22 for 77 scoreless yards. Now facing the disintegrating defense of the Chicago Bears that allowed a league-worst 8.7 yards per pass attempt over the last three games, and the bounce back is in order.

Coming off a 100% snap share in Week 11, don’t expect the quarterback change to affect Wilson’s usage. His target rate of 26.3% ranks top 25 at the position, and with Wilson operating out of the slot 35% of the time, he can attack the Bears; Chicago has allowed 44% of its opponents’ wide receiver production from the slot. As one of the best point-per-dollar values on the slate, Wilson generates the most leverage at his position on DraftKings and is a solid lock in cash and tournament lineups.

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