Week 10 was another brutal week for survivor pools. The most popular pick (Baltimore, 30% on Yahoo) was eliminated on Thursday, with the second option (Pittsburgh, 29%) potentially being eliminated depending on how ties are judged. At this point, most pools are thin heading into the final eight weeks of the season. Be sure to check out Awesemo’s new NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool when making NFL bets and survivor picks the rest of the way. Here are some potential NFL survivor pool picks for Week 11.
What is an NFL Survivor Pool?
There are several variations of the survivor pool format, but the most basic and common one is each Week everyone in the pool must select one team to win a game straight up, not against the spread. If the team wins, that player survives the week; if that team loses, the player is eliminated. The twist is that teams can only be used once, making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left.
Week 11 NFL Schedule
|Patriots (-6.5) at Falcons
|Colts at Bills (-7)
||Ravens (-6.5) at Bears||Lions at Browns (-10)|
|Texans at Titans (-10)||Packers (-2.5) at Vikings
||Dolphins (-3) at Jets|
|Saints at Eagles (-1.5)
||Washington at Panthers (-3)
||49ers (-5.5) at Jaguars|
|Bengals (-1) at Raiders
||Cowboys at Chiefs (-2.5)
||Cardinals (-2.5) at Seahawks
|Steelers at Chargers (-4.5)|
|Giants at Buccaneers (-10.5)|
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Recap
The Steelers were the official pick of the column initially. However, with the news of Ben Roethlisberger being ruled out, a late pivot was in order. That was wise, as the Steelers managed to snatch a tie from the haws of victory on Sunday. They fumbled twice in overtime and probably should have lost on a few occasions. Depending on the survivor pool format, ties may not be an eliminator. However, that is not the case in all pools. With the Steelers being used by over a quarter of the field, a big chunk of competition was potentially eliminated.
Originally, the Bills were best saved for later in the season. However, between Baltimore being eliminated early and the Roethlisberger news, going to Buffalo made sense. With all the upsets as of late, most pools should wrap up before the end of the season, making holding on to the Bills irrelevant. They handled business easily with a 45-17 victory over the Jets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Like the Bills, the plan was to avoid Tampa for use down the road. Unlike the Bills, those that used the Buccaneers are now eliminated. Tampa dug themselves a 13-0 hole that they were never able to climb out of. They were popular this week, with over 8% of the field using them. However, there are better spots ahead for the Buccaneers. Washington is not a great team by any stretch, but it is better to play home teams and to pick on the bottom few NFL teams. Washington is bad, but not terrible.
This column had already used the Colts, but Week 10 was a great spot for those who did not. They faced the terrible Jaguars and handled business easily with a 23-17 win that was not as close as the score indicated. Indianapolis was the third-most used team but likely would have been higher had they not been so popular in prior weeks.
Dallas was a bit scary following their Week 9 demolition by Denver. However, they bounced back as expected to beat the Falcons 43-3. Dallas was a solid option for pivoting off Pittsburgh if available.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Teams Already Used: San Francisco 49ers (W), Cleveland Browns (W), Denver Broncos (W), Cincinnati Bengals (W), Baltimore Ravens (W), Indianapolis Colts (W), Arizona Cardinals (W), Kansas City Chiefs (W), Dallas Cowboys (L, Switched to Miami after the fact), Buffalo Bills (W)
With the column officially being eliminated in Week 9, moving forward Miami will be the “official” Week 9 choice. For continuity’s sake they are eliminated from the available teams moving forward.
Do not look now, but the Titans have the best record in the AFC. Winners of six straight, they have put to rest concerns over their offensive capabilities without Derrick Henry, scoring 23 points on a tough Saints defense. The road ahead is much easier, as they take on a Texans team that has not won since Week 1 and has been outscored 258-128 on the season. The Titans are 10-point home favorites, and that number feels a bit small. They have the Texans again in Week 18, but that game is on the road and the Titans could have the conference wrapped up by then. However, they do have games left against Jacksonville and Miami (both at home), so there is some opportunity cost here.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is the week’s biggest favorite as of writing (10.5 points), hosting the Giants. While they disappointed last week, expect a bounce back in Week 11. There is something about Tom Brady after a loss that feels like a safe bet. However, this is the Monday night game. That should give some pause, as a late COVID outbreak could destroy the Buccaneers chances. That (somewhat low) chance would not be enough to steer players away most weeks, but there are other strong options here. Besides, they take on the Jets in Week 17. With three losses on the year, there is no way they will be resting starters that early.
Cleveland hosts the winless Lions in Week 11. Picking on the Lions is a popular strategy and has the Browns installed as 10-point favorites. Still, the Lions have had some very close calls against teams playing better football than the Browns are, which makes this game a bit scarier. With that said, the return of Nick Chubb and potentially Kareem Hunt should help the Browns significantly. They are not expected to be favored by more than 5.5 points the rest of the season by Awesemo’s Survivor Optimizer Tool, so the opportunity cost is low as well.
Week 11 NFL Survivor Pick: Tennessee Titans
This one is close between the Titans and the Browns if both are available. However, the column has already used Cleveland, making the Titans the clear favorite. Given their easy schedule down the stretch, it would be better to save Titans. However, with all of the upsets as of late, that may be a moot point. It does not get much easier than the Texans at home. Tampa playing in Week 11’s Monday Night Football game is just worrisome enough to avoid them too since it means not being able to react to late news if something were to happen. That leaves the Titans.
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