PlayLine NFL Projections: Week 11 Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $5,000GTD – Precision from the pocket

Players: Kirk Cousins, Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes & Jared Goff

Stats: Passing yards

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Today, we’ll be projecting the expected yards for the four quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins, Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes & Jared Goff, in the “ Presents: $1,000,000 Perfect Line Bonus + $5,000GTD –  Precision from the pocket ($1,500 to 1st!)“ PlayLine contest.

Your PlayLine predictions are scored according to the chart below. It’s really simple. The closer your PlayLine is to the athlete’s actual performance, the more points you get. The more points you get, the better your chances of winning!

You will receive PlayLine points each time the featured athlete registers a stat that you predicted will occur. Once the athlete’s actual stat total in a particular category goes over your prediction, you will no longer receive additional per stat PlayLine points.


Kirk Cousins

Average yards per game: 298.3

Standard deviation: 89 yards

It’s a battle for the NFC North, as the Vikings and Bears meet in Chicago on Sunday night. The Vikings are coming off a bye week and will be ready to go against a sturdy Bears defense. Minnesota has posted respectable numbers on offense this season, ranking 12th in total yards (374.3), 8th in passing yards (282.7) and 14th in points (24.6), but they’ll face a true test this Sunday.

The Bears possess one of the best defensive units in the league, sitting 4th in opponents’ total yards per game (319.6), 12th in opponents’ passing yards per game (235.6) and 4th in points allowed (19.4). The Vikings don’t have a strong running game, but they’ll likely avoid it anyway given the Bears’ standing in that department. It’ll be all on Cousins to get the job done this week, and he’ll be motivated to do so after throwing for just 164 yards in his most recent outing against the Detroit Lions.

Cousins has been solid this season but his numbers have fluctuated week-to-week, so you can never really get a proper gauge as to how he’s going to perform. He has, though, thrown for over 400 yards in a game twice this season, so he’s got the ability to really let it fly on occasion. That’s going to be tough for him to do this week, but we should expect him to post respectable numbers in a big game against a division rival. We’re going to predict between 260-300 yards.


Mitchell Trubisky

Average yards per game: 256.0

Standard deviation: 84 yards

The Bears have won three straight games and are looking to hold firm at the top of the NFC North this week. Trubisky was fantastic in the win over Detroit last Sunday, throwing for a career-high 355 yards to go with three touchdowns. Like the aforementioned Cousins, though, Trubisky’s numbers are all over the place week-to-week, but he’s hot and will be in the spotlight on Sunday.

The Bears are averaging 29.9 points per game, good for 5th in the NFL. Their numbers aren’t entirely glamorous when it comes to yardage, but they get the job done and find ways to score points regardless. This week, though, they’ll have to deal with a pretty sound defensive unit. The Vikings rank 5th in opponents’ total yards per game (322.2), 11th in opponents’ passing yards (233.3) and 11th in points allowed (22.7).

Trubisky’s going to have to work hard to get up over 300 yards again this week. The Bears are currently -2.0 favorites and should be able to get the job done if their defense holds true. Surprisingly, he actually throws for fewer yards when the Bears win. In victories, Trubisky has thrown for an average of 247.3 yards, compared to 273.3 yards in losses. With that said, and the fact that it could be a low scoring game with two good defenses, has us predicting between 230-270 yards for him this week.


Patrick Mahomes

Average yards per game: 315.0

Standard deviation: 41 yards

Buckle up because we’ve got a bigtime showdown on Monday night. The Chiefs (9-1) will square-off against the Rams (9-1), in what could be an offensive spectacle for all to see. Both teams rank in the top-3 in total yards per game, passing yards per game and points per game, so it’s safe to assume we’ll be seeing a high scoring affair.

Mahomes threw for a season-low 249 yards in his last outing against the Arizona Cardinals, and it was just the second time in 10 games that’s he’s thrown for under 300 yards. He’s been phenomenal this season, and probably won’t have to worry about throwing for under 300 yards again this week. The Rams have posted pretty sound numbers defensively this season, ranking 13th in opponents’ total yards per game (355.2), 10th in opponents’ passing yards per game (233.1) and 12th in points allowed (23.1), so it won’t be all easy for Mahomes.

The Rams are -3.5 favorites and the line is set at a whopping 63.0, so everyone is expecting plenty of offense. Mahomes’ standard deviation is fantastic at just 41 yards, and it would probably be less if it wasn’t for last week’s game, but you can expect a productive outing for him this week. We’re predicting between 320-350 yards.


Jared Goff

Average yards per game: 313.4

Standard deviation: 84 yards

Goff has rebounded nicely after a couple of quiet games in the middle of October. He’s thrown for over 290 yards in each of his past three games and will likely keep that trend up moving into this week’s game against the Chiefs. Kansas City are all-in on offense and are slightly lacking defensively. They rank 29th in opponents’ total yards per game (410.7) and 28th in opponents’ passing yards per game (289.0), so there’s no reason why Goff can’t be productive.

The Rams possess a slightly more respectable defense than the Chiefs, so that’s likely why they come into the game as the favorites, but it can very easily go either way. Losing Cooper Kupp for the season will certainly sting for the Rams and Goff, but they’ve still got pieces to roll offensively. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are going to see an uptick in production and look for the Rams to work Todd Gurley into the passing game more, too.

Everything is shaping up for Goff to have a big outing this week, so that’s why we’re going to pencil him in between 350-400 yards.

Josh Engleman
Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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