Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Sunday breakdown for NFL Divisional Round. If you are new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So each game has a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) for users to make over/under picks on. Using Awesemo’s projected stats, here are some over/under plays for PrizePicks daily fantasy football.
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PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: NFL Divisional Round
Jimmy Garoppolo over 210.5 passing yards ( Caesars New York Betting Offer)
There’s a ton of negative sentiment around Jimmy Garoppolo this week and for prop play I think it behooves us to play that fact to our advantage. The passing total on Garoppolo is incredibly low on PrizePicks and he’ll be facing a Rams team that has allowed an average of 248 yards (per game) over their last three starts. The Rams also allowed Garropolo to complete over 74% of his passes against them in two games this year and ceded well over 300-yards in the air to him in Week 18. Game flow will dictate a lot of Garoppolo’s passing production, but he has had good success against the Rams in limited pass attempts this year. He’s projected for over 250 passing yards on Awesemo making his over one of the best targets for Conference Championship week.
Clyde Edwards Helaire over 35.5 rushing yards (FanDuel New York Betting Offer)
The Chiefs got back Clyde Edwards-Helaire into the lineup last week and the running back looked full healthy and rested, going for 60-yards on just seven carries — against what was supposed to be a top rush defense in the Buffalo Bills. Edwards-Helaire is the preferred early down back for the Chiefs so you have to expect there’s a great chance he’ll exceed 10 carries in this week’s spot, even with Jerick McKinnon continuing to take passing down work. The big point spread (Chiefs -7.0) and the fact the Bengals rush defense has been an easy target of late (5.5 yards per carry allowed over their last three games), makes this a great spot Edwards-Helaire to excel again. His total simply looks too low this week, especially with so many ways that a positive script could play out for him.
Ja’Marr Chase under 18.0 fantasy points (Caesars New York Betting Offer )
It won’t be a popular move, but from a prop perspective the under on Ja’Marr Chase this week is more appealing than his over. Even with him exceeding over 100-yards receiving in his last two games, Chase still only managed to go over this big 18.0 total once in those two games, and he’ll have a Chiefs defense who is likely ready to sell out to stop him after he laid down over 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns against them in Week 17. At Awesemo, Chase’s fantasy projection this week is under 16.0 points for Prizepicks and reflects the fact that he’s only seen over eight targets in three of his last 10-games. An explosive week is always possible with an athlete like Chase, but the under on Chase’s bigger fantasy prop rates out as the better play for the AFC Conference Championship.
Patrick Mahomes under 2.5 passing touchdowns (DraftKings New York Betting Offer)
Much like Ja’Marr Chase, it feels like most of Patrick Mahomes’ prop totals for this week’s match-up with the Bengals are getting a touch inflated. It’s not surprising after he tore apart a solid pass defense in Buffalo for 378 yards and three touchdowns, while completing 75% of his passes. Still, it’s something to be mindful of as we’re getting some good opportunities to take the under on him against Cincinnati. I already alluded to the fact that the Bengals have been weak against the run and I expected the Chiefs will exploit that flaw big time if they get ahead early. Only two quarterbacks this year have been able to throw for more than two touchdowns against the Bengals and Mahomes still missed going over this prop in Week 17 against the Cincinnati, despite the Chiefs putting up 31 points. With touchdowns being such a variable stat, the under has to be the play on this one, especially with a game script that could lean heavier towards the run for Kansas City this week.
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