Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections and player prop tools, this article will target the player’s totals and props that stick out as the best options and give an idea of why they might be good targets. PrizePicks requires a different approach than the typical NFL DFS strategy. The name of the game is finding potentially mispriced over/unders on player props or fantasy point totals for players in a specific game and melding them together to make winning combo tickets. With that said, let’s get into the best NFL PrizePicks for Week 7 Thursday Night Football, with the Denver Broncos (+2) vs. the Cleveland Browns (-2).
PrizePicks NFL Picks: Week 7 Thursday Night Football
D’Ernest Johnson Over 55.8 Yards Rushing
The Browns rank third in rush attempts per game and now have a backup quarterback under center. The tendency might be to fade the running game with their top two options out as well, but running back can often be a plug-and-play position. D’Ernest Johnson not only projects to get the start at running back for Cleveland but he should dominate the touches, especially on early downs. The Browns’ only other running back is more of a receiver in Demetric Felton, and he does not have a carry on the season. Johnson is not as explosive as Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb, but he is a shifty runner and piled up 95 yards on 13 carries last year in his only spot start.
Johnson is projected for over 65 yards rushing against a tough Broncos defensive front, so Awesemo expects Johnson’s usage will be high in this game. It may not be pretty, but there is almost no scenario where Cleveland will drop Case Keenum back more than absolute necessary in this spot, especially with both of their starting tackles also banged up. Expect a low-efficiency but high-volume game from Johnson and for him breech this 55.5 mark, which looks far too low given the likely game script.
Odell Beckham Jr. Under 55.5 Yards Receiving
If projecting the Browns for a lot carries in a slow-paced game, then look to fade one of their receivers. Odell Beckham is one more poor week from drifting in the void and never being heard from again (until Cleveland trades him), and this week seems like perfect spot for that breakup to occur. The Broncos are about league average in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they also are good at getting pressure and rank 10th in sack rate.
This total also looks insanely high considering Beckham is not 100% and was essentially surpassed on the depth chart last week by Rashard Higgins and Donavan Peoples-Jones. It would not be shocking to see Beckham have his snaps cut back significantly even if he plays given how bad he has been when on the field. The projections this week have him going for well under this over/under, and with lots of scenarios where the under can cash, it is a great play.
Noah Fant Over 41.5 Yards Receiving
Teddy Bridgewater Over 231.5 Yards Passing
Noah Fant was a sleeper play of the Awesemo projections last week, as he ranked in the top five at tight end for fantasy scoring. He responded with his best game of the season (nine catches for 97 yards and a touchdown) and remains entrenched as an every-down player. Fant’s projections are not as gaudy as they were last week, but they remain strong enough to look towards the over. He is projected for over 45 yards receiving and nearly seven targets, which should be enough (even in this ugly-looking game) to go over this mark.
If looking for a correlation play, then taking the over on Teddy Bridgewater’s yards passing alongside Fant’s over makes sense. Bridgewater is projected to go for over 235 yards passing in against a Cleveland defense that can play lackadaisically at times. This play has a lot more risk because of the Browns’ great pressure rate (second in sacks on the year) and Bridgewater’s injury issues (questionable). Still, if he remains upright, there is a good chance that he will grind out an over on a low total. The two make for a good combo play in this spot, as Fant’s reliability and Bridgewater’s increasing usage of his tight end should push both over small totals, assuming Bridgewater can play the entire game.NFL single-game projections and showdown ownership projections. If you’re interested in other top NFL DFS plays today for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. View our DraftKings DFS NFL ownership rankings and our FanDuel DFS NFL ownership rankings. Take a look at our NFL inactives, NFL line-ups and depth charts for NFL games.
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