Week 16 Saturday Night Football brings a matchup between a pair of 6-8 teams that are clinging to slim playoff hopes. Las Vegas had the improbable win over New England last week and they have won four of their last five, including a pair of overtime road games in Denver and Seattle. Pittsburgh snuck by the Panthers in Carolina and they have won four of their last six games.
Cruising into NFL Week 16 Saturday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 16 Saturday Night Football slate featuring the Las Vegas Raiders at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 16 SNF | Raiders-Steelers
Tonight Las Vegas will be without cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (knee) and they have a host of questionable players. On defense linebacker Darien Butler (quad) and lineman Andrew Billings (fibula) were limited practice participants during the holiday week. Offensive linemen Jackson Barton (back), Dylan Parham (knee) and Alex Bars (knee) are questionable and Zamir White (ankle) is a game-time decision.
Pittsburgh should have Kenny Pickett under center as the rookie has cleared the concussion protocol. Diontae Johnson (toe) is questionable and purposefully held out of practice, though he is going to see how things feel during warmups. Linebacker Myles Jack (groin) is expected to suit up, though things are cloudy for safety Terrell Edmunds who missed practice all week with a hamstring issue.
Las Vegas Raiders: 18.25 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic Projections have veteran Derek Carr just inside of the top 25 quarterbacks this week. Weather is going to be cold tonight, actually brutally cold with temperatures in the single-digits. Wind is also in the forecast though it is in the 10-15 mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph. Though this will of course impact the kicking game and deep passes the most, Carr tends to work the short routes and the middle of the field, so he should be okay.
Though Carr has more than 260 passing yards in only two of his last seven appearances, he does have six multi-touchdown games, including a trio of three score performances. The Pittsburgh passing defense is ripe to be exposed as they have survived over the last seven weeks against Sam Darnold, Tyler Huntley, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton. In this stretch, Joe Burrow was the only above replacement level signal-caller and he authored a 355 yard, four touchdown performance in Week 11.
The Steelers have the 18th passing DVOA per Football Outsiders and the only reason they are not lower is that they are just bad and not GAWD AWFUL, when compared to the dregs of the league.
Running Back
Pittsburgh does have the eighth best rushing DVOA, so Josh Jacobs is going to need to get by on volume, which is par for the course. Jacobs has put together the best season of his career as he heads towards free agency. Currently he leads the league with 106.8 rushing yards per game which is far and away ahead of the 93.1 from Derrick Henry. The 24-year-old also has been a contributor in the passing game with a career best 363 yards and he should also set new highs in targets and receptions before the end of the year. Since a few of the receivers and tight ends have missed time, Jacobs is actually third on the team with 55 targets.
Jakob Johnson and Ameer Abdullah are the next most likely players to see the field, though Johnson has just five targets as his only offensive opportunities. Abdullah will serve as the main backup and he is typically in on passing downs, but he has just four carries on the season. Zamir White has fallen out of the rotation due to various minor injuries and ineffectiveness and though he should see a couple of carries, he still has not been targeted in the passing game and he is unlikely to get more than a handful of offensive snaps.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams should be on the field for nearly every play and of course he dominates the passing game with 151 targets for nearly one-third of the overall opportunities. Mack Hollins has been a surprise and actually earned his way up the pecking order on his own merits. He has eight or more targets in three of the last five games, including eight last week when everyone was healthy for the first time in over a month.
Hunter Renfrow is back from injury, though he had just three targets while playing on 43% of the snaps. That is a reasonable baseline and there is upside on that workload as long as the short yardage specialist does not reaggravate the abdominal injury that sidelined him for six weeks. Keelan Cole was the only other receiver to see the field last week and he is a desperation option at best.
Tight End
Darren Waller was activated along with Renfrow last week after missing five games and he was on the field for nearly half the snaps. He should continue to see that increase and he is in the mix for those doing some touchdown hunting – but volume has been a question, even when healthy and this will be only the second game for the 30-year-old tight end since Week 5.
Foster Moreau is healthy and he performed well in Waller’s absence, but we know he will slide back down the priority tree with Renfrow and Waller on the field. Still, Moreau is very much in play on DraftKings ($3,000) where he is $4,800 cheap than Waller. On FanDuel, the $1,000 discount lacks much appeal.
Defense/Special Teams
The Pittsburgh run-heavy offense limits the opportunities for sacks, but the team has still ceded 35 in 14 games which is in the middle of the pack. Sadly, Las Vegas has mustered just 25 sacks on the season, which is the fourth lowest mark in the league. On the turnover front, the Steelers are ceding 1.3 per game, though the Raiders have just 14 themselves, which is ahead of only the Giants and Eagles.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 20.25 Points
Quarterback
Rookie Kenny Pickett should be back under center after suffering a concussion in Week 14 and not clearing the protocol for Week 15. It has been hard to get a read on Pickett, though he does seem to be ahead of several of his rookie counterparts as well as a couple second-year signal-callers. His numbers have been similar to veteran Mitchell Trubisky, with each having to play behind the sketchy Pittsburgh offensive line.
The Raiders are no real defensive threat, but the lack of consistency among the key Pittsburgh playmakers, a lack of experience and a dash of weather are combining to have Pickett projecting for 200 combined yards. We could get lucky with a touchdown or two through the air or even better, one on the ground. In his limited action, Pickett has four aerial scores with three trips to the end zone courtesy of his legs.
Per Football Outsiders, the Las Vegas passing DVOA is the worst in the league and the rushing DVOA is firmly entrenched in the bottom-third.
Running Back
Najee Harris will get the bulk of the carries, however, his contributions in the passing game have dwindled to nearly nothing when compared to last season. He is losing some ground to rookie Jaylen Warren and of course having a rookie or retread quarterback under center along with a patchwork offensive line has also stunted his fantasy production.
Warren can be considered and he is live for a touchdown in a back weather game, though last week was the first time he found pay dirt. Fullback Derek Watt will make it onto the field now and then, but it is a 50/50 proposition if he gets yardage of any type. Benny Snell is probably going to be in line for half a dozen plays if he suites up, though his best path to relevance would be for an in-game injury to befall Harris or even Warren.
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Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson has three consecutive double-digit fantasy point performances. However, he has only five on the season and last week with his first 20 fantasy point game in full-PPR format and he hit that number on the nose. Of course it does not help his cause that he has yet to record a touchdown and he is also questionable with a sore toe, which had him held out of practice this week. Even if he is active, there is always the chance he is going to play more of a decoy role – at least until the defense sees through a potential ruse.
Rookie George Pickens is second on the team with 69 targets, though he has not been much of a difference maker. Of course, that is not entirely his fault as the talent clearly is there, but having a fellow rookie or a veteran who is not particularly accurate with throws at quarterback have been part of the issue. He could easily be in the mix for a big play, but it will take at least a score or 100 yards to make his doubters be jealous of his backers tonight.
Steven Sims Jr. has seen at least two targets in each of the last seven games, but he is averaging only 2.5 in this stretch. This activity has been correlated to the mid-season trade of Chase Claypool and it has also enabled long-time special teamer Gunner Olszewski to see 20 or so offensive plays during this timeframe. Miles Boykin is a lottery ticket and hard to be excited about with just 97 snaps and three targets for the year.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth is second on the team with 82 targets and while he did not see any last week, he usually is in the mix for 6-to-8 each game. Veterans Zach Gentry and Connor Heyward are longshots to get more than one target, but each has a rock bottom salary on DraftKings which keeps them in the mix for anyone building 10 or more lineups.
Defense/Special Teams
The Pittsburgh defense should be in line for three or four combined sacks and turnovers, though anything more would be gravy against the run-happy Raiders.
Saturday Night Football Raiders-Steelers DFS Single-Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Week 16 Saturday Night Football Raiders-Steelers DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Raiders-Steelers
- Josh Jacobs:Â Will be the most popular multiplier selection appearing on around 20% of all lineups in this capacity on DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Devante Adams:Â Can make something out of nothing and works well on all three levels of the route tree.
- Kenny Pickett:Â Rookie quarterbacks often tuck the ball and run under pressure, that is fantasy gold just waiting to be found.
- Najee Harris:Â Should get first crack at the workload, but Warren is lurking and the dearth of passing game work is an added risk.
- Derek Carr:Â Never exciting, but the veteran typically is in the mix for 20 fantasy points and that is all we can ask for tonight.
- Pat Freiermuth:Â Tight ends are the best friend of an inexperienced quarterback.
- Pittsburgh D/ST:Â Homefield, cold weather and a little holiday magic.
- Mack Hollins:Â Clearly the WR2 and it is going to be up to Renfrow to get back that mantle.
- George Pickens:Â Just one big play could break the slate.
- Diontae Johnson:Â If we were not worried about the toe injury, he would slot in just above Freiermuth.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Raiders-Steelers
- Jaylen Warren: Weather could force both teams to run the ball and neither is shy about it already.
- Hunter Renfrow:Â Should see more action than last week as he knocks off the rust, still he is now behind Hollins. Returns punts.
- Chris Boswell: 14 of 16 from 50 or more yards the last two seasons, it would be a surprise if we see any attempts over 45 yards unless it is towards the end of a half with the winds tonight.
- Dylan Carlson: Looks like the next Justin Tucker, but has the luxury of kicking in a dome as his home field.
- Las Vegas D/ST:Â Even though they are bad, Bad, BAD – rookies can and do make mistakes.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Raiders-Steelers
- Ameer Abdullah:Â Better on DraftKings as he rarely rushes the ball, which is a non-starter on FanDuel. Returns kickoffs.
- Steven Sims Jr.:Â Should get two targets and exactly two targets. Returns punts and kick offs.
- Gunner Olszewski:Â $200 minimum on DraftKings, backup kick returner to Sims.
- Zach Gentry:Â Another $200 minimum play on DraftKings, still a tick below Olszewski.
- Foster Moreau and Zamir White:Â Moreau at least has a regular role in the offense, White needs some luck and health.
- Connor Heyward and Benny Snell Jr.:Â Pittsburgh’s imitation version of Moreau and White.
- Miles Boykin, Jakob Johnson, Kris Kringle, Derek Watt and Mitchell Trubisky:Â Clearly in need of some Holiday Magic!
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