We’re now more than halfway into the NFL season and Week 11 brings a brand new slate to break down for DFS purposes. Looking at the DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy football main slate, here are a few first look values to target in NFL DFS lineups. We have some nice-looking bargains and a few contrarian NFL DFS picks to get into.
NFL DFS: Week 11 First Look At DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback
Jameis Winston — Slated to play for an injured Drew Brees, Winston looks like a supreme value at $5,900 on DraftKings and $7,200 on FanDuel. Aside from throwing 5,109 yards last season, Winston finds himself in one of the week’s best game environments. The Saints sit as 4.5-point favorites over the Falcons in a game totaled at 51.5 points. On top of the slate-leading total, the Falcons allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ranks third worst in the league. With Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas at his disposal, Winston remains a first-look darling ahead of Week 11.
Deshaun Watson — Moving up the price tiers a bit, Watson still looks like a value as the sixth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and the seventh on FanDuel. Watson struggles last week with just 163 yards passing against the Browns in a game heavily influenced by the weather. This week, he draws a matchup against a Patriots’ secondary quietly allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. This mark ranks second worst in all of football and provides Watson a path to a bounce-back week.
NFL DFS Picks: Running Back
Kalen Ballage — The year is 2020, and Ballage actually looks like a solid play on DraftKings and FanDuel at $5,600 and $5,800, respectively. Austin Ekeler has begin working out, but his initial timetable puts him out a couple more weeks. With Joshua Kelley and Troymaine Pope functioning as change-of-pace backs, Ballage looks like the primary beneficiary of a matchup against the Jets. Last week alone, Ballage out-carried Kelley 18-to-7 while receiving six targets in the pass game. Functioning as a true feature back, matchup and volume make Ballage a solid early-week DFS play.
D’Andre Swift — Finally unleashed as Detroit’s feature back, Swift out-carried Adrian Peterson 16-to-4 in Detroit’s most recent game. This led to a breakout game consisting of 81 yards rushing, while Swift added another five receptions for 68 yards and a score. Importantly, Swift handled 76% of Detroit’s run plays, suggesting a solid role moving forward. This week the Lions are 1.5-point underdogs against Carolina. The Panthers rank fifth-worst in yards per attempt allowed to opposing running backs (4.8). With Swift priced at $6,400 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel, the rookie looks like a solid target ahead of the Week 11 NFL DFS slate.
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NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks — Functioning as Houston’s WR1 following Bill O’Brien’s dismissal, Cooks remains one of the week’s top value wide receivers. Cooks currently holds a 23.4% target share in Houston’s offense, while Will Fuller slots in at 20.6%. Cooks has tied or out-targeted Fuller in four of Houston’s five most recent games. Mentioned above with Watson, Cooks should also benefit from a standout matchup against a weakened New England secondary. Priced below Fuller on both sites, Cooks emerges as an early week value play for Week 11.
Michael Pittman — Returning from a mid-season injury, Pittman continues to vie for alpha status in Indianapolis’ passing attack. Last week specifically, Pittman ran a route on 95% of dropbacks, while leading Indianapolis with eight targets and 101 receiving yards. With T.Y. Hilton continuing to decline and Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson barely playing above the practice squad level, Pittman has an easy path to targets on a week-to-week basis. This week he finds himself in a showdown against Green Bay in the second-highest totaled game of the slate (51 points).
NFL DFS Picks: Tight End
Tyler Eifert — With tight end disappointing on a week-to-week basis, paying all the way up or down at the position remains a viable strategy. For those looking at pay-down options, Eifert makes just as much sense as any other tight end. Eifert now has five and four targets in his two most recent games while running a route on 74% of dropbacks in his most recent tilt against the Packers. The Jaguars pass the ball at the second-highest rate in the league, potentially creating easy PPR points for Eifert. For those looking at pure value plays, Eifert comes in slightly above the minimum price on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Dallas Goedert — Two games removed from injury, Goedert finally saw his role increased in Week 10. Goedert received six targets, notching four catches for 33 yards. While the box score leaves room for improvement, Goedert still ran a route on 83% of Philadelphia’s dropbacks last week. Goedert draws a neutral matchup against the Cleveland Browns, but his prices at $3,800 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel keep him in play at a bleak position.
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