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Titans at Packers NFL DFS Picks: Will King Henry Lead a Green Bay Upset on TNF?

Eric MacPherson

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Titans-Packers DFS Picks TNF: Derrick Henry, Aaron Rodgers

Week 11 Thursday Night Football brings together two banged up teams on a short week. Tennessee leads the AFC South with a 6-3 record, but two of their three losses have come on the road. Green Bay ended their five game losing streak last Sunday, overtaking the Dallas Cowboys in overtime with the Lambeau Field Faithful cheering on with amazement.

This is a tough stretch for the Packers who are seeing their postseason hopes fade with a 4-6 record and their next two matchups are on the road, before they get a Week 14 bye.

Heading into NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 11 Thursday Night Football slate featuring the Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 11 TNF | Titans-Packers

Tennessee Titans: 19.0 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic fantasy projections have Ryan Tannehill as a bottom-five quarterback in the full Week 11 projections. The veteran returned after a two-game absence, leading the Titans to victory with a season high 36 pass attempts, resulting in 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Green Bay has been solid against the pass with the eighth best DVOA per Football Outsiders, though the 30th ranked rushing defense plays right into the typically Tennessee offensive strategy of run, run and run some more. Only Chicago is averaging less than the Titans 148.2 passing yards per game, with Denver and Pittsburgh throwing for fewer than the eight aerial scores recorded by coach Mike Vrable’s offense.

Tannehill projects for around 13 fantasy points, which is dismal for a quarterback. On the flipside, in this pending rock fight, that is the fourth best median projection of the available options in the player pool.

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Running Back

Tennessee is averaging only 133.4 rushing yards per game, which is just inside the top 10 teams, with a league average 4.4 yards per carry. Green Bay has allowed eight different running backs to tally more than 70 rushing yards this year, with five players surpassing 100 combined yards out of the backfield.

Derrick Henry is one of three backs averaging over 100 rushing yards per game and he is less than a yard behind league leader Saquon Barkely and two yards per game ahead of Nick Chubb. Henry’s nine touchdowns account for half of the offensive scores logged by Tennessee this season.

Each of the last two games have seen Henry slide below 60% of the snaps, though considering the two weeks preceding this stretch he had 62 combined carries for 347 yards and two scores, it make sense to ease up whenever possible. Over the last seven games, rookie Hassan Haskins has been an afterthought with one carry and two targets.

Dontrell Hilliard should see action on at least one-third of the snaps and potentially more depending on the game flow. He has 20 targets, which is actually one less than Henry, though the total snap count is wildly divergent. Hilliard is a capable runner, though he rarely will see more than a couple carries if Henry is healthy.

Wide Receiver

Rookie Treylon Burks returned after missing more than a month with a turf toe injury and he was in on just over half the offensive plays. Clearly he is the most talented option on the team, but he is still very raw with only five games under his belt.

Robert Woods leads the team with 43 targets, though he has more than four looks in just two of the last six games. Last week Burks had six targets and he has 22 in his limited action, which is behind Woods, though just one behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.

Speaking of Westbrook-Ikine, he had a career game on Sunday turning his eight targets into five receptions for 119 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That represents nearly half of his full-season production, so it was more of an anomaly than the start of a positive trend. Each member of this trio is a viable option and will none of them are likely to get much volume, they are all live to end up with a touchdown.

Tight End

Austin Hooper is the best pass-catcher at this position for Tennessee, though they will rotate four players throughout the game. Geoff Swaim is the best blocker and on the field a fair amount, but he has only 10 targets on the season. Kevin Rader will see around a dozen snaps, but he has yet to be targeted in 2022 and he has just four in his career.

Chigoziem Okonkwo is a bit of a wild card. In his last two games he has one reception in each, but both have been 40-yarders. Of his 13 opportunities, he has brought in seven for 141 yards and a score. The rookie was a fourth round selection out of Maryland and it is clear that the team likes his upside potential as a receiver. This is a thin play, but that can describe two-thirds of the player pool in this matchup.

Defense/Special Teams

Over their last six games, the Titans have 22 sacks and at least three in every tilt. Green Bay has allowed multiple sacks in four of their last six games and they have a lot of question marks on the offensive line. The Titans are averaging around 1.5 takeaways per game, with the Packers suffering a similar turnover rate.

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Green Bay Packers: 22.0 Points

Quarterback

Though Aaron Rodgers has won the last two NFL MVP awards, he is looking rather haggard this season and of course he will turn 39 in just two weeks. It would seem that Davante Adams was a HUGE factor in his production and the motley crew of replacement level characters filling in at wideout this season are a massive downgrade.

Rodgers does have two or more touchdown passes in seven of ten games this season, but he has thrown for more than 255 yards only once and still has not eclipsed the 300 yard milestone. Though he is behind only Henry in the projections, it is hard to be enthused about Rodgers as last week was the first time this season where he topped 20 fantasy points and he barely got there, even with overtime.

Running Back

What looked like a shared backfield has steadily been consolidated into a 2-to-1 ratio with Aaron Jones surpassing A.J. Dillon. Across the last four games, Jones has 61 carries for 329 yards and a score along with 19 targets for 17 receptions, 105 yards and two touchdowns. In this same stretch, Dillon has 38/168/0 on the ground with three catches for another 19 yards on five targets.

In a fun twist, backups Kylin Hill and Patrick Taylor have each stepped on the field once during an offensive drive this season. Jones is in the mix for the multiplier slot on both DraftKings and FanDuel, while Dillon is a fine option in the utility slot, particularly on DraftKings where he has a significant discount to his counterpart. Jones and Dillon can be played on the same roster. Keep in mind that Tennessee has the best rushing defense in the league, but with the Packers running backs being capable receivers, that is partially neutralized, at least from a fantasy perspective.

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Wide Receiver

Rookie Romeo Doubs is going to miss at least a month with a high ankle sprain and Amari Rodgers was cut after yet another special teams miscue. That seems to be a sign that Randall Cobb (ankle) is ready to return from the injured reserve and slide back into the slot role.

Allen Lazard becomes the de facto lead option and he at least has a good rapport with his quarterback. Christian Watson had a career day against the Cowboys racking up 107 yards and three touchdowns on four catches. While that type of performance is almost outside the range of possibilities going forward, he should at least see a handful of looks and a couple downfield chances tonight.

Veteran Sammy Watkins and rookie Samori Toure will work in with Watson as the alternate options in two and three wideout formations. Watkins has three or more targets in in three of the last four games, while Toure looked strong with consecutive four target outings, prior to being invisible in the box score last weekend.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan Jr. has the third most targets on the team, but his workload has been wildly inconsistent ranging from a dozen targets in Week 6 to just one against the Cowboys. We can project him for a handful of opportunities, though he has not come close to recapturing his red zone magic of the 2020 season where he scored 11 times.

Josiah Deguara did get five targets last week, though before we begin throwing hosannas in his direction, that represents almost half of his season long production. He is a viable option as a salary saver, while 38-year-old veteran Marcedes Lewis can be used as an extreme punt on DraftKings ($600) for those curating more than 50 lineups tonight.

Defense/Special Teams

Green Bay does have home field advantage, however, their defense has only nine sacks in the last six games and just 10 takeaways on the season. The run first Tennessee offense does not allow opposing defenses many opportunities for splash plays.

Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy For Titans-Packers

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

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Week 11 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings For Titans-Packers

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Packers

  1. Derrick Henry: It is good to be the King.
  2. Aaron Jones: Can score from anywhere on the field, ideally he gets half a dozen targets.
  3. Aaron Rodgers: Hard to believe he has won the last two MVP awards.
  4. Ryan Tannehill: Ugh, no reason to try and perfume this pig of a pick.
  5. Allen Lazard: Just three career 100 yard games, never has recorded more than six receptions.
  6. Josh Lambo: Signed specifically to kick in Lambeau Field, this seems preordained… or it is because the other two Tennessee kickers are hurt, but why let that get in the way of a good story. Only played in seven games over the last three years.
  7. Mason Crosby: Not much distance left in his leg, but he is still nails from inside 45 yards.
  8. A.J. Dillon: Several paths to leading the field in fantasy production tonight, though none are particularly likely.
  9. Treylon Burks: Betting on talent.
  10. Randall Cobb: Minimum price on DraftKings ($200) is a joke and makes him the proverbial “free square” tonight.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Packers

  1. Christian Watson: Not much volume and the touchdowns are likely an abberation.
  2. Robert Woods: Even in full-PPR formats, he has just two double-digit fantasy point games this season. Does return punts.
  3. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Half of his season long production came last weekend.
  4. Robert Tonyan Jr: Needs some red zone love.
  5. Austin Hooper: Meh.

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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Titans-Packers

  1. Green Bay D/ST: Hard to see many sacks or turnovers against the Titans ground and pound offense.
  2. Tennessee D/ST: Close your eyes and envision Rodgers yelling on the sideline after a pick-six, yes it is glorious and in play tonight.
  3. Sammy Watkins: Moves up to Cobb’s slot if the veteran is inactive.
  4. Dontrell Hilliard: Needs something to befall Henry to see a path to fantasy relevance. Returns kickoffs as well.
  5. Chigoziem Okonkwo and Josiah Deguara: TE2s on an island game, yes please!
  6. Samori Toure: Just enough potential to get his own line.
  7. Geoff Swaim, Cody Hollister, Marcedes Lewis, Hassan Haskins, Jordan Love and Malik Willis: Only for the hard core 150 maxers looking for fleeting glory.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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