NFL Week 10 delivers a 10-game slate this Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 10 NFL DFS Leverage Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 8th, FanDuel: 4th
St. Brown isn’t gaining the attention he deserves this week and is a stellar target for large tournaments, especially as a bring back option for Justin Fields’ stacks. As the Lions’ No.1 receiver this season, St. Brown has been targeted on an outstanding 32% of his routes, which ranks second in the NFL, only trailing Tyreek Hill (35%).
Overall, St. Brown ranks eighth in DraftKings points per snap among receivers (0.34). Plus, when we exclude Weeks five and seven of this season when he saw minimal snaps due to injuries, St. Brown is averaging 23.2 DraftKings points in the last 10 full games he has played.
This Bears’ defense St. Brown will be going against Sunday is the second worst graded unit on PFF and they are giving up the sixth most yards per pass attempt (7.2). This tilt’s total is second highest on the slate (48.5 points) and the Lions’ being three-point underdogs should translate into a pass centric gameplan for their offense. In this beautiful spot, St. Brown brings a top-15 ceiling on the slate among skill players in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is an absolute steal at less than $7K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 15th, FanDuel: 14th
While Schultz has had an up-and-down season due to personal injuries to and injuries at quarterback for the Cowboys, both Schultz and Dak Prescott are now fully healthy, which is massive news for Schultz. In the three games the tight end has played with Prescott starting at quarterback this season, Schultz has run a route on 75% of his team’s routes and garnered a target on an elite 27% of those routes.
To put in perspective how compelling this usage is, if this was Schultz’s average target rate for the season, he would rank second among tight ends, only trailing Mark Andrews (29%). In those three contests with Prescott under center, Schultz is averaging 12.2 DraftKings PPG and a strong 0.24 DraftKings points per snap, which would rank fourth in the league among tight ends if it was his average for the season.
Schultz is criminally underpriced for his elite role with Prescott and is one of the best tight GPP targets available this week, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Going against a subpar Packers’ defense this Sunday, the Cowboys carry the fourth highest implied team total on the slate (24 points) and are five-point favorites. When the Cowboys have favored over the last two seasons, Schultz has generated 14 DraftKings PPG and scored double-digit DraftKings points at a 70% clip.
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 35th, FanDuel: 51st
Olave is underpriced for his role as the Saints’ No.1 receiver and gets a beautiful matchup vs. the Steelers this weekend. In eight starts this season, Olave has been targeted 28% of his routes, while running a route on 85% of his team’s dropbacks. Of Olave’s targets, eight have come in the redzone and 18 have been greater than 20 yards, which ranks second in the NFL this season, only trailing Hill. The Steelers’ are giving up the second most yards per pass attempt this season (7.5) and they have surrendered the most touchdowns in the league to the wide receiver position (13).
This is a perfect spot for Olave to haul in a deep pass for a touchdown and he is one of the top contrarian options at receiver this weekend, with Stokastic projecting him for around 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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