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Top Week 10 NFL DFS Stacks: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill Among Best Options

Geoff Ulrich




Week 10 has some big injury news at the QB position to take note of. Josh Allen is banged up and listed as a game time decision for Buffalo in their game against the Vikings. The Bills have been projecting as a top NFL DFS stack nearly every week in the Stokastic Top Stack Tool but have taken a fall this week, mainly based off the Allen injury report. Both Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray are questionable for the Cardinals and Rams game but it does sound like both will play. Anything can happen though and both players had limited to no practice reps this week. The biggest total this week is out in Kansas City where the Chiefs and Jaguars game has a projected 51.5 projected over/under.

This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. Here are some of the top opportunities for Week 10 below based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 10 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top NFL DFS Stack: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have posted 690 passing yards in their last two games combined and finally have all three of their main stacking options healthy at once. They face off against a Browns defense that got great pressure on Joe Burrow in his last game but will also be going up against a much better Dolphins O-Line that has allowed the 10th fewest sacks in the league. Tua Tagovailoa is also a poor matchup for just about any pass rush right now as he has the fourth-quickest release rate in the NFL and two electric wide-outs who can burn teams quickly who decide to over play their hand with the blitz.

Tagovailoa is only projecting this week as the third most popular QB in terms of ownership which isn’t terrible on a week where three QBs (Tagovailoa, Fields and Mahomes) figure to dominate the ownership at that position. Further, while one of his targets in Tyreek Hill, is projecting in the top three at his position (in ownership) his teammate Jaylen Waddle — who already has two games with 33 or more DraftKings points — is well outside the top 10 in ownership projections at WR. They’re an expensive group, but we know double WR stacks with Tagovailoa have a ton of potential and a Miami QB-WR combo is projecting as the top stack this week in the Stokastic Top Stack Tool, with an over 20% probability rate of ending the week as top stack.

If you’re looking for leverage, a single QB-WR with just Waddle makes plenty of sense too as the WR will likely see more secondary and backup corners with Denzel Ward healthy and likely to shadow Hill. Waddle’s target share tends to fluctuate a lot, but the two Miami WRs have similar upside in this quick hitting attack and a good matchup against Cleveland who rank league average in DVOA against the pass.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 20.6%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 9.1%

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Top Low-Owned NFL DFS Stack: Denver Broncos

The Broncos aren’t a team for the fearful at heart. Russell Wilson has only topped 20.0 points on DraftKings once this year but it did come against another weak passing defense back in Week 4 against Las Vegas. The Titans have been a great match-up for opposing QBs and allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position this year — and are just 21st in yards per pass attempt against as a group.  The Broncos receiving crew has also got a boost with the addition of Greg Dulcich to the lineup who is averaging 15.4 yards per catch through three games. Dulcich is projected to be slate chalk at TE but pairing him Wilson (who has less than 2% projected ownership at his position) will give you a more unique stack and differentiate your lineup from other Dulcich users. Any big game by the rookie will obviously help pad Wilson’s totals, who is at a mere $5,900 on DraftKings this week.

Denver has dealt with injury issues all around this year on offense but they head into this week off a bye and with Wilson, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton all looking 100%. Jeudy is starting to look like the receiver to own the rest of the year as he’s now caught 13 passes (to Sutton’s four) over the last two games and plays the slot more, a position Wilson often favoured in Seattle. There’s plenty of risk involved here but with the Stokastic ownership projections telling us ownership this week expects to be very heavy on two or three names at QB, starting with the very low owned Wilson, and building around a couple of his receivers, could pay dividends given the Titans weakness in the secondary.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 1,6%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 1.4%

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Tournament Leverage Stack: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have a big question mark surrounding them for NFL DFS purposes this week as their quarterback Matthew Stafford is currently projected as questionable. His injury (concussion) seems less likely to affect on field performance than Kyler Murray’s (hamstring) though so if he is active there’s a great chance to gain some leverage by rolling out Rams stacks in tournaments this week. Arizona’s DST is projected to be the second highest owned DST, at around 10%, so using a combo of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will not only give you a lower-owned QB-WR stack (with Stafford only projecting with 4-5% ownership) but will also give you great leverage against lineups that choose to eat the chalk with Arizona at DST.

Arizona has been more opportunistic on defense of late but they’re still allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position and rank out 7th last in overall yards per play. Even if Stafford plays there should be lots of hesitancy by the field this week to rely on Stafford who has just 8 TDs vs 8 INTs on the season anyways. The projections like this matchup though and have Los Angeles as a top three stack this week (with a 10% top stack probability). If you’re interested in game theory, the Rams top duo make for a great combo to get overweight on in big field GPPs.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 4.9%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 10.0%

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