Week 2 of the NFL season often presents us with some unique opportunities. There are usually some very large overreactions in the marketplace to teams or players who significantly underperformed in their first game. This Sunday presents us with a 12-game slate that includes pretty significant favorites in the Rams (-10.0), the Broncos (-10.0) and the 49ers (-8.5). Given that all three of those teams are coming off losses there could be decreased positive sentiment on those heavy favorites this week in DFS.
Just like last week we’ll be using the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to see if there’s any place where we can gain leverage on the field, either through ownership or by rostering the other side of the game on a popular stack. Now that we have some usage stats on receivers, we’ll also have more data to use to our advantage when selecting receivers to pair with QBs. How you construct your NFL DFS stacks can be of vital importance to a successful GPP lineup since certain receivers will have different usage, upside and ownership potential each week.
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is a vital part of the Stokastic NFL DFS projections. It helps us narrow down the potential top scoring NFL DFS stacks on the slate but also provide info like best value and the top leverage opportunities. If you haven’t checked out the Top Stacks Tool yet you should (after reading this article) and we’ll also use it to help us breakdown some of the top opportunities for Week 2 below.
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 2 on DraftKings + FanDuel
Top Stack: Vegas Raiders
For a second week in a row the top projected stack in the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool will be taking on the Arizona Cardinals, and folks that’s likely something you should get used to seeing. I mentioned last week how horrific the Cardinals secondary was shaping up to be and they delivered an epic failure. The Chiefs racked up five TDs and a 76% completion rate through the air despite having a lot of new faces in their receiver ranks. I wouldn’t expect the Raiders to be quite as efficient as the Chiefs, but it’s worth noting that QB Derek Carr now has a game breaker in Davante Adams on the outside to work with. Carr averaged 8.0 yards per attempt in Week 1.
The Raiders threw the ball on over 76% of their plays in Week 1 too. While a lot of that was driven by game flow, it’s worth noting that they still passed 10% above expectation (even when behind). The Raiders are tied with the Rams for the highest implied total on this slate at 28.5 points. However, Vegas outperforms the Rams slightly on the Stacks Tool for upside purposes. Atlanta ran the ball on almost 50% of their plays in Week 1 while Vegas and Arizona both passed over 65% of the time.
Stacking the Raiders leaves us with two different paths. Davante Adams has the highest point projection this week in the Stokastic model but will also carry heavy ownership percentage. Carr-Adams stacks will likely be the highest rostered on the slate, forcing you to commit heavy amounts of your GPP pool to these two if you want to be over the field from an ownership perspective. The other way to view the Raiders is that they offer us multiple paths to make contrarian stacks by attaching one or more players to Carr. The Cardinals secondary was bottom 10 in yards, receptions and TDs allowed to slot receivers last season so playing Hunter Renfrow as a second receiver with Carr-Adams gives you immediate upside and will help bring your total ownership levels down.
Another way to get unique is to think about using Josh Jacobs as a third man. Jacobs didn’t see much passing game usage against the Chargers but took all of the red zone rushes for Vegas in Week 1. He ran extremely well and with backup Brandon Bolden (questionable) now banged up, there’s a good chance we see Jacobs expand his route running and passing down work.
As popular as the Carr-Adams Raiders will be, Davante Adams saw a team target share of over 40% and they project as they highest upside stack on Stokastic. Not getting some exposure for Week 2 will be a huge risk.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 16.4%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 11.3%
Top Low-Owned Stack: Cincinnati Bengals
Once Sunday Night Football finished the big discussion was just how good a spot this would be for the Bengals. That hasn’t translated into major heat for any of their players in DFS though. It’s interesting to note that Joe Burrow, a quarterback who threw on 70% of his snaps last week, is projecting for sub-5% ownership. The Bengals as a team project as a top five stack right now on the Stokastic Top Stack Tool and none of their top players are projecting for heavy ownership either. Ja’Marr Chase is the obvious go to player here although there’s almost no path to him seeing the kind of volume he did in Week 1, given how weak the Cowboys offense projects. Still, Chase is a player who finished as WR3 while being just the 18th most targeted player in 2021. The negative perception the Cowboys offense is creating about this game means we’ll get a shot at rostering one of the most explosive QB-WR duos at lower ownership this week.
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The Bengals also project to have Tee Higgins available, although he hasn’t officially been cleared from the concussion protocol. Higgins is viable at just $5,800 on DraftKings. When he and Chase have been on the field together they’ve produced essentially the same output in full point PPR leagues for fantasy purposes. Still, expecting Chase to emerge as the true WR1 this season is something I’m OK with doing and a Bengals stack may look better with RB Joe Mixon as your third man. The Cowboys allowed 4.6 yards per carry last week and Mixon featured prominently when the Bengals went to no huddle. Nine targets in Week 1 is likely an outlier but it’s reasonable to think (considering the depth chart behind him) that Mixon may have a larger than expected passing role this year.
The nice thing about the Bengals is that you don’t have to get cute. Both Burrow and Chase project as top-six players at their position on Stokastic (DraftKings) and yet neither is in the top-10 of their position for ownership purposes. You can likely keep the total overall ownership percentage of your GPP lineup at low levels just by starting with a Cincinnati stack this week.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 7.8%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 4.8%
Tournament Leverage Stack: Washington Commanders
Last week we mentioned the Lions as a potential leverage stack off the Eagles and they produced, with two of their studs producing over 20.0 points on DraftKings. This week, Detroit has more heat on them as both Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift (questionable, ankle) are projecting with over 10% ownership. Swift’s ownership could potentially balloon on Sunday morning if we get positive news on his ankle.
The Lions defense gave up 38 points in Week 1, 7.5 yards per pass attempt (fifth-worst) and 455 yards (third most). If we go to the other side of this game we can find lower ownership numbers. Players like Terry McLaurin, whose 8% team target share in Week 1 is clearly scaring people off, will potentially be ignored. Expect the Commanders to look McLaurin’s way more in Week 2 though as Detroit’s outside corners were completely overmatched last week against another true WR1 in A.J. Brown. Washington also threw the ball more than expected in Week 1, passing on 60% of their plays despite being ahead for a lot of the game. QB Carson Wentz had one of his strongest games in quite some time. The veteran signal caller completed over 65% of his passes and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt — nearly a full yard more than his 2021 season average.
Wentz and Curtis Samuel will both garner ownership at their price levels but adding McLaurin to any game stack focused on this game could provide solid dividends. Despite the lower projection, Washington does have solid appeal this week especially from a game theory perspective.
Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 2.2%
Stokastic QB Ownership: 6.7%
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