Week 1 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This article will look at who the best projected plays are on Awesemo for this Week 1 matchup of the Rams vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football.
The game line around many sportsbooks has been -8 in favor of the Rams, with an over/under settling in around 46.5. Considering both of these defenses have quite a bit of talent — and the fact the Rams allowed the fewest points against in the league last season — the 46.5 total is high. As for injuries, there is really not much to report here, as both teams will be full strength.
Week 1 Sunday NFL DFS Picks for Yahoo
Superstar: David Montgomery ($19 Superstar price)
Despite this being a poor matchup and the Bears having an implied total of just 19.5, Montgomery figures to be one of the busiest players in this game. He saw 10 or more carries in every game he started last season and averaged 25.5 carries in his last three games of the year. Despite the Rams allowing just 4 yards per carry in 2020 (sixth best in the league), Montgomery’s volume has to be respected. The Bears still do not have Tarik Cohen, and they have given no sign that backup Damien Williams is going to be a significant part of the gameplan.
Andy Dalton also looked mediocre in the preseason, so Chicago is unlikely to use a pass-heavy gameplan to open things up. On Awesemo Montgomery is projected for a heavy workload, at over 15 carries and over five passing targets. He is only the eighth-most expensive play on Yahoo this week too, so he opens up a ton of space if used in the Superstar spot.
Awesemo DFS Projection: 61.86 yards rushing and 5.45 targets
Superstar: Matthew Stafford($28 Superstar price)
Stafford may be starting his first game as a Ram, but expect a pretty seamless transition since he had all summer and a full preseason to adjust. The Rams had a run-heavy gameplan last year that saw them rush the ball 29.7 times per game, seventh in the league. However, the preseason loss of Cam Akers (Achilles) certainly could mean that Sean McVay will rely more on the passing game early, especially with his upgrade at quarterback over the summer. The Bears were a solid pass defense last year but lost cornerback Kyle Fuller and ranked below average in opponent yards per pass attempt.
The bottom line is that the Rams defense is likely to put a cap on the upside of most of the Bears players, while Los Angeles tends to run a more spread system without a dominant skill player. Stafford is projected to be the highest-scoring player in this game by over 3 fantasy points, and paying up for him avoided the problem of choosing which Rams receiver to start off hot.
Awesemo DFS Projection: 275.1 yards passing and 1.87 touchdowns
Flex: Cooper Kupp ($18 Flex price)
Kupp is only $18, which is $2 less than Robert Woods and has Awesemo’s fifth-highest fantasy projection on this slate. Kupp’s slot role figures to see even less competition for targets with the departure of Gerald Everett and Josh Reynolds, and he is taking on a Bears team that look a lot different on the back end than they have in years. Kupp’s slot role could also make him an extension of the rush game (in short passing), and he averaged over eight targets per game last season. He pays off his price if he hits his average outputs, but an end-zone trip means he could also end up being one of the best values of the Sunday Night Football slate.
Awesemo DFS Projection: 7.73 targets and 67.7 yards receiving
Flex: Darrell Henderson Jr. ($18 Flex price)
The Rams are favored by 8 points and have an implied total of 27.5 points, which is the fourth highest of the week. Targeting several of their top skill players this week makes sense given they are projected to be in the red zone a lot. Henderson averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year but also managed 9.9 yards per reception. He is a great pass catcher in the open field, and that factor alone should keep him on the field over Sony Michel.
Chicago’s defensive line is tough, as they gave up just 4.1 yards per carry last season — eighth best in the league — and with Michel’s presence, that is enough to keep Henderson as a Flex option. Still, he is likely to lead all Rams running backs in snaps (potentially by a considerable margin), and if he is tasked with icing the game late, he will have a great chance of being a top-three scorer on this slate. A Flex spot is more than warranted at this price.
Awesemo DFS Projection: 60.69 yards rushing and 2.89 targets
Flex: Cole Kmet ($10 Flex price)
Kmet is a great punt option this week at just $10 in price on Yahoo, which is $6 cheaper than opposing tight end Tyler Higbee. Kmet averaged around four catches per game in his last six starts of 2020 and figures to carve out a bigger role this year. The Bears still lack a true No. 2 receiving alongside Allen Robinson, and Kmet could develop into something to fill that role. The bottom line, though, is price, as it is not often players projected for over five targets have minimum salaries on single-game slates. Feel free to load up on Kmet in a game where Chicago projects to be passing a lot late.
Awesemo DFS Projection: 5.5 targets and 29.9 yards receivingThanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! View our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings and our FanDuel NFL DFS rankings. Take a look at our starting lineups, depth charts and inactive player list. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and NFL DFS stacks. We also have FanDuel Single-Game slate tools and showdown ownership projections.
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