Week 4 of the NFL is here, and Awesemo has a ton of great tools and NFL DFS strategy to help tackle all the largest contests in DFS. This article will walk through some of the standouts in the early Awesemo rostership projections. We will look at who is projected to be highly rostered, who makes for good chalk plays, which highly rostered players may be worth fading and who the low-owned pivots are in large-field tournaments. Let us get into the Yahoo daily fantasy NFL picks for Week 4.
Week 4 Yahoo Daily Fantasy NFL Picks & Rostership
Awesemo has some of the best rostership projections on the planet for NFL DFS. If playing in large-field GPPs every week, then using rostership projections can bring a massive edge by knowing where the good pivot and leverage spots will be.
Good Chalk: Josh Allen (Yahoo Projected 24.6% Rostered)
The Bills have a 32.25 implied team total this week, and yet Josh Allen is just the fourth-most expensive quarterback on Yahoo. He has the highest projected point total of any quarterback on the slate as well by almost 2 points. The rostership is going to be extremely high for a quarterback, a position where the spread between top players often is not that large. At the same time, given Allen’s running ability (six red-zone rushes already in 2021) and his improved play last week, there does not seem to be a safer bet on the board. He is the poster boy for good chalk, not only in Week 4 but for the entire season.
Chalk to Fade: Ryan Tannehill (Yahoo Projected 10.8% Rostered)
Ryan Tannehill has a moderate salary of $26 and getting some heat in the rostership projections due to his matchup with the Jets. Tennessee is a large favorite and projected for 26.75 points, but Tannehill has a monster fantasy producer in his backfield. Derrick Henry is getting 24 carries a game despite Tennessee’s defense allowing other teams to score a lot of points, and his usage could easily suck the air out of a big game from Tannehill. Tannehill is only the 15th quarterback in the projections this week and makes for a good fade.
Low-Owned Pivot: Taylor Heinicke (Yahoo Projected 4.0% Rostered)
Taylor Heinicke has scored over 21 points on Yahoo in each of his last two starts. He is being helped along by a defense that is allowing a ton of yards passing. Heinicke also showed off his athleticism with 21 yards rushing and a touchdown last week, and he gets a Falcons defense that has already allowed the fourth-most yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks. He projects and has a rostership projection that puts him well under 5% rostered on Yahoo for the week, making him the perfect pivot play.
Good Chalk: Alvin Kamara (Yahoo Projected 28.4% Rostered)
The Saints have been one of the slowest-paced teams in the league in 2021, and it has held back Alvin Kamara from producing a ceiling game. The good news is that he is still playing on over 80% of the snaps for New Orleans, so when the Saints offense finally gets a few more chances to score, he could easily break out. The Giants do not scream shootout, but they are giving up 4.6 yards per carry (eighth worst in the league) and have a turnover-prone quarterback who could easily cede a couple of extra red-zone looks to his opposition. Kamara has the second-highest salary among running backs, but he is still under $35, which makes him affordable enough. Even at high rostership levels, he is someone to build around, as a bust game seems unlikely in this spot.
Chalk to Fade: D’Andre Swift (Yahoo Projected 27.4% Rostered)
D’Andre Swift had a nice Week 3, going for a rushing touchdown and six catches on seven targets. The usage is good, but he still only played on 56% of the snaps for Detroit and is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry. His Yahoo salary is going to draw a lot of rostership in this spot against a Chicago team that is playing as a ninth-slowest team in the league this year. The Bears are still a decent run defense, and Swift may not get the same volume he did last week.
Low-Owned Pivot: Chase Edmonds (Yahoo Projected 8.6% Rostered)
The Cardinals take on the Rams, who have a lot of talent on defense but have struggled at times against good rushing teams. Los Angeles has allowed over 7 yards per pass to opposing running backs, and Chase Edmonds should get more looks as a receiver given the Rams’ talented secondary. Edmonds is sharing snaps (much in the same way Swift is) but is vastly outperforming James Conner as both rusher and receiver (Conner has just one target on the year). Edmonds is risky given the committee Arizona employs but comes with really low rostership.
Good Chalk: D.J. Moore (Yahoo Projected 13.5% Rostered)
The Cowboys have ceded the fifth-most yards receiving and four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, so D.J. Moore’s rostership will not be low. Still, he is projected for under 15% this week, which is not too bad considering how well he has performed in 2021. Moore has 31 targets through three games, which is 17 more than the next wide receiver on the team (newcomer Terrace Marshall). He is projected as one of the strongest plays at this position (third-highest points projection at wide receiver), so even if his rostership projection rises, there is no reason to pivot off of him.
Chalk to Fade: Justin Jefferson (Yahoo Projected 14.0% Rostered)
Justin Jefferson broke through for a monster game in Week 3, going for 118 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. The spot last week was good for Jefferson, as Dalvin Cook was out and he was facing a weaker Seattle secondary. Cleveland could be a different beast, though, as their defensive line looks dominant and allowed Justin Fields to throw for just 68 yards passing (they sacked him nine times). The projections also have Jefferson a touch over-valued at this salary. Cleveland could make this game ugly for the Vikings passing game, and Jefferson’s rostership projections make him a potential fade.
Low-Owned Pivot: Deebo Samuel (Yahoo Projected 10.2% Rostered)
Deebo Samuel has moderate rostership projections; he tallied five receptions last week against Green Bay but had a tough matchup against one of the best shutdown corners in the league in Jaire Alexander. Samuel still saw 10 targets last week to lead the team, and his role as the WR1 in San Francisco seems to be going under the radar (except in the Awesemo projections, which have him as the third-highest-scoring receiver for the week). This week he gets the same defense that Jefferson tore up and has a moderate salary, making him a perfect pivot play in GPPs.
Good Chalk: Travis Kelce (Yahoo Projected 32.0% Rostered)
The Chiefs are coming off two losses, and Patrick Mahomes has yet to play his best in 2021. They are one of only two teams this week with an implied team total of 31 or more, however. Eagles linebackers were completely dismantled by Dalton Schultz on Monday, which speaks to how much trouble they are going to have guarding Travis Kelce. Kelce is the best play at tight end this week, with a projection that is more than 2 points higher than his next closest counterpart. Ignore his rostership projections and pay up.
Chalk to Fade: Tyler Higbee (Yahoo Projected 4.6% Rostered)
Tyler Higbee bounced back with a nice game against the Buccaneers last week, but Tampa has issues in its secondary and loves to play in pass-heavy games. There could be less passing this week against Arizona, which plays at a slower pace and has only allowed eight receptions to the tight end position. Higbee does not have much rostership, but there are better plays who are getting even less heat, so feel free to fade and go elsewhere.
Low-Owned Pivot: Noah Fant (Yahoo Projected 0.6% Rostered)
Noah Fant is not super cheap, but he has decent upside. Baltimore leads the league in receptions allowed to tight ends through three weeks, and Fant is playing almost every snap for Denver, who has not needed to pass the ball that much due to their solid defense. Lamar Jackson will likely pressure Denver to pass a little more, and Fant should benefit against a weak coverage unit. He is a great tournament pivot who will not have much rostership given his salary.
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