This is one of the last big slates of the NHL regular season as we get nine games to choose from. From what I’m seeing, the early games will carry most of the ownership, specifically CBJ1, NJ1, and both sides of PHI-NYI. With a lot of teams not playing for much, it’s key to keep up on injury news, guys resting, and line changes throughout the day. As always we’ll have Awesemo weigh in and then I (Tommienation1) will follow up.
SJ1: Meier-Pavelski-Donskoi ($14,600 DK/$16,000 FD)
“The Sharks’ implied total of 3.2 at home against an eliminated Stars team is encouraging for a line with this kind of firepower.”
This line (“A” points grade and value on both sites) has been great when they’ve played together at even-strength, and they should get matchups with the Stars’ top-6 forwards, which are matchups they should be able to navigate. There were no line-rushes at the Shark’s morning skate today, but we do know that Evander Kane is out, and this is a trio that has has a ton of success at even-strength, posting over 40 Scoring Chances For per 60 and 16.9 High-Danger Chances For per 60, and they’ll all be on the power-play. The Stars are second in the league in Times Short-Handed, so there could be multiple opportunities for SJ1 to create scoring chances on the man-advantage. Because of the uncertainty of the SJ lines, this stack should come in very low-owned as a whole, but keep an eye on the line rushes at 10ET to see if they’re all together.”
CBJ2: Jenner-Wennberg-Vanek ($15,600 DK/$15,000 FD)
“The second line for the Blue Jackets has been awesome as of late, and the 3.4 implied total suggests there could be more goals to go around outside of the popular top line.”
The Blue Jackets second line is priced up a little bit on DraftKings, but they are a sizable discount (“B” FD value) from that top line, which will likely be one of the most popular lines tonight in tournaments. The Wennberg line has been pretty great at even-strength, posting a 55.7 Corsi For Percentage, 34.5 Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes, and 16.2 High-Danger Chances For per 60 minutes. When they get matched up against the Larkin line, it should be a huge advantage for them, as the Larkin line allows over 15 High-Danger Chances Against per 60 minutes. If you want to be a little different while still playing the chalk team, take a chance on this second line in tournaments.
PHI1: Giroux-Couturier-Konency ($19,000 DK/$20,300 FD)
“The Flyers top line may be on the road, but they have a 3.7 team total against arguably the worst defense in the NHL. Stacking up Giroux, Couturier, and Konency is a lot cheaper than some of the other top lines on the day even though they have one of the best matchups.”
PHI1 (“A” points grade) has all the possession numbers we look for, including a 56 Corsi For Percentage, 29.4 Scoring Chances and 12.5 High-Danger Chances For per 60 minutes, and they have the matchup we look for against the Islanders. The Isles are in the top-6 for most Scoring Chances, High-Danger Chances, and shot attempts over the last month, and the Flyers’ top line can great these with the best of them. At (weirdly) only $19K on DraftKings, this is one of the better lines in one of the best matchups tonight, but you’ll get them for less than CBJ1, WPG1, BOS1, and for the same price as DAL1. Give me some Flyers’ top line on the road as they’re all on the power-play against the a league-worst 74.1% penalty-kill.
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