NHL DFS Picks: For more analysis on the slate for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, check out Nolan Kelly’s Line Change article before lock, as well as Awesemo’s NHL Projections and Rankings. You can also subscribe to the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel to get notifications when “Hit The Ice” (4ET Weekdays) goes live!
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Awesemo’s NHL Projections
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The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from naturalstattrick.com.
NHL Schedule for Friday, October 18th
|AWAY – the opening line||O/U||HOME||TIME – EST|
|6.5||Florida -125||7:00 PM|
|Dallas||6||Pittsburgh -140||7:00 PM|
|NY Rangers||6.5||Washington -200||7:00 PM|
|6||Chicago -140||8:30 PM|
|Detroit||6.5||Edmonton -200||9:00 PM|
|Carolina -125||5.5||Anaheim||10:00 PM|
DraftKings & FanDuel Centers
Connor McDavid– EDM vs DET – $8,100
McDavid is plug and then play on a six-game set. Simply, he has 17 points in seven games on the season. The scary part is the center was not 100% going into the start of the year. That mattered little. McDavid gives the intriguing option of mega-stacking him with Leon Draisaitl. It is expensive but has paid off a few times this season. They generate so many chances when they are together on the ice. When one does this, they will have to dip into the value picks a ton. Fortunately, there are some options on this six-game slate. It is a little forgiving. As always, we will have more options via social media.
Noel Acciari– FLA vs COL – $2,700
Right on cue, Acciari is one of those “punt” plays that can be used on Friday night to shoot for the bigger stacks—like Colorado line one or Washington line one even. Acciari has just two goals in six games but fills categories well enough. He blocks two-plus shots and hits the net two-plus times a night. That balance from a forward at that price is enough to keep him on the roster. Also, he will go up against Colorado’s depth, which gets hammered at nearly 40 chances per 60.
The good news tonight is that value can be found almost anywhere. Players are out there and pricing is soft in places. Boone Jenner is interesting in a value position ($3,400/$4,100).
DraftKings & FanDuel Wingers
Mike Hoffman – FLA vs COL – $6,300
Hoffman has to be considered a moderate-risk GPP play that almost needs to be used for contrarian purposes. He has had limited points in the last two games but seven scoring chances. Hoffman has just missed the net a ton. His price has come down enough to be almost affordable again. Colorado’s penalty kill on the road was around 77% last year over the second half of the season. Florida has the weapons to be a top-three unit again this year. Their shooting percentage will inch upward. So, will Hoffman’s.
Any part of Florida’s PP1 stack can be used to differentiate lineups a bit. Look to Colorado’s penalty killers as well as Florida will give up chances galore that way.
Alex Nylander– CHI vs CLB– $3,300
Nylander is a bottom-six, high-risk option for Friday night. He is not going to generate a ton of scoring chances and shots because of limited ice time. However, his speed, much like Joseph Blandisi of Pittsburgh ($2,600), is hard to ignore. These little value plays have more give earlier in the season where a normally three- or four-game slate is a six-gamer. If one is using a 3-2-1 strategy, your one typically should be a value or lower-priced option.
DraftKings & FanDuel Defensemen
John Carlson – WSH vs NYR — $6,700
The good news for Carlson owners is the simple fact that he keeps producing. He has 14 points in eight games which include three goals and a propensity to shoot the puck and block shots. Carlson has hit the blocked shots bonus four times this year and nearly hit the shots bonus four times, as well. With a great matchup against a non-rested New York Rangers team, Carlson should see more power-play opportunities tonight and chances to rush the puck up the ice. Washington could get 35-plus shots on the net, which makes Carlson and any part of WSH PP 1 a good idea to at least try somewhere in lineups. Dougie Hamilton and Kris Letang have to be considered from the upper-tier.
Mark Barberio – COL @ FLA – $2,600
Taking a swing with Barberio is okay because of how rock bottom his price is on DraftKings in particular. He averages about two shots and two blocks a game which creates a nice floor along with 16-plus minutes average time on ice. Digging down the rosters to find gems always yields that one player no one saw coming. At the very least, he will not doughnut your lineup on Friday night against a Florida team that gives up 34 shots per 60 at home.
DraftKings & FanDuel Stacks
FLA 2 – Hoffman-Trocheck-Connolly
This is the cheap stack kind of night. Yes, it is okay to use the Draisaitl-McDavid plan and then piece it together with cheaper and cheaper options. This is one of them along with Carolina’s second line or even Anaheim’s line with Adam Henrique. Colorado’s top line can be used if you go with the mini-stack or the “2” in your 3-2-1 strategy. Anaheim’s new second line that has Ondrej Kase and Ryan Getzlaf together could even be used.
WSH 3 – Vrana-Eller-Hathaway
It is okay to take the lower-priced stack here on Friday night. Shots per 60 here are extremely strong with this group and at times, better than the top lines. Spending a little less to hopefully get a bit more could work as the top-unit power play will be a heavy play. This is more of a 1-in-20 or 2-in-20 types of lineup play.
PIT 1 – Guentzel-Crosby-Simon
Dallas will be picked on a bit here because of Jake Guentzel and Sidney Crosby‘s chance rates. Again, this offers options to go to Guentzel-Crosby-Letang, for example. The idea is whether one goes 3-3-1, 3-2-1, or even 2-2-2, there are choices out there on this medium-sized slate. Even the second Dallas line might gain a little traction tonight against a depleted Pittsburgh team.
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