There is another small slate on tap for Friday with just four games on the schedule, but there are plenty of great spots, especially on the power play. Going back and forth between these big slates and small ones is a good reminder to always check player exposures and differentiate stacks. Let’s find some of the best NHL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for the slate on Friday, March 26.
All picks are based on Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s expert projections and Top Stacks Tool. And as always, be sure to check our Premium Slack chat for news, notes and lineup updates leading up until lock.
NHL DFS Picks & Top Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Tomas Hertl (SJ at ARI)
FanDuel – $6,300
DraftKings – $5,600
As the season has gone along, Hertl has gotten back his game legs after suffering a major knee injury last year and picked up the production as expected. After compiling just 10 points in his first 15 games, he has tallied 9 points in his last 10 games and 28 shots/blocks. With Logan Couture likely out for this tilt, Hertl should see some increased ice time naturally, but more importantly, he should secure a spot on the top power-play unit. The Coyotes penalty kill ranks amongst the league’s worst on the year, with 7.8 expected goals allowed per 60. This number can be skewed by time spent on the penalty kill, but with nearly seven minutes spent killing penalties per game, it’s securely reinforced.
With a role increase and a perfectly fair price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Hertl is an elite play in all formats. As a road team expect some lower ownership, or if need be use him as a pivot to plays such as Ryan O’Reilly.
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Rickard Rakell (ANH at STL)
FanDuel – $5,300
DraftKings – $6,200
All things considered, Rakell may be a slightly better overall play on FanDuel, but with it being such a small slate, paying up to be different is also good game theory. He continues to put up solid numbers despite being on a such lackluster team. Over the course of the year Rakell is averaging over three shots per game with 18:19 of ice time per contest. In terms of NHL DFS production, he’s getting 11.11 points per game on FanDuel (9.6 DraftKings). The Blues, like the Coyotes, have been awful on the penalty kill for the entirety of the season and have allowed 8.1 expected goals per 60, which is dead last. Coming in off a back-to-back can’t help matters either, as the Blues will be throwing out their backup goalie Ville Husso, who has been equally as terrible — 3.4 goals against and .885 save percentage. All of these things bode well for Rakell regardless of what team he’s on.
Alex Ovechkin (WSH vs. NJ)
FanDuel – $8,400
DraftKings – $8,800
No matter the opponent, Ovechkin is going to get his most often with his willingness to shoot and create chances. Ovechkin has 118 shots in 29 games, good for second in the league, behind only Nathan MacKinnon. As we would expect, Ovechkin is still top 30 in goals per 60 (1.3), and with his willingness to shoot, he’s always in the upper tier of chances created via rebound. The numbers are still there across the board. New Jersey’s penalty kill has also been porous all year, ranking bottom three in expected goals allowed per 60, high-danger chances against per 60 and high-danger goal against, which means Ovechkin should feast. He has the highest projection for all forwards on either site.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Noah Hanifin (CGY vs. WPG)
FanDuel – $3,900
DraftKings – $3,900
Until Hanifin is off the top power-play unit in Calgary, I find it hard to justify not playing him everywhere in all formats. At his extremely low tag on both sites, he is an easy cash play and great complement to an even-strength stack as well. Plus, Winnipeg struggles mightily at five-on-five, including 2.6 expected goals allowed per 60. Since getting an increased role. Hanifin has seen a bump in numbers across the board with over 21 minutes per game: Two assists and 16 shots/blocks. Calgary has continued to struggle, losing four of its five games since the shakeup, so there is hope for some regression on a team with plenty of talented players surrounding the defenseman.
Kevin Shattenkirk (ANA vs. STL)
FanDuel – $3,700
DraftKings – $4,400
DraftKings is apparently not going to let gamers have it easy with Shattenkirk, but thankfully FanDuel doesn’t like the Ducks nearly as much. In fact, Shattenkirk has seen a price reduction from as much as $4,200 after having a nice run earlier this month. He is still getting plenty of run, with one game under 20 minutes in the last seven, and that was due to penalties taken. With just 11 points on the year, there may be a limit to his upside, but the matchup and opportunities should provide a nice floor. At this price you can do a lot worse, especially on FanDuel.
Top Goalie
Ryan Miller (ANA at STL)
DraftKings – $6,600
FanDuel – $6,600
There is a pretty obvious theme going on here at this point with the Ducks, but St. Louis has been that bad and the Ducks have shown occasional spurts, which also goes for their Miller. He has had a poor year overall, getting very sporadic playing time, but since John Gibson went down (he may start this game) Miller has posted three games with a save percentage of .900 or higher. With a price tag near bar minimum and projected ownership of 6.6%, the probability of him being a great point-per-dollar player gives reasoning in itself.
Top Stack
WPG2
Kyle Connor – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Nikolaj Ehlers
Positive leverage on both sites and ownership projected under 10% makes this an easy play for tonight’s four-game slate. This line is loaded with offensive talent, including two wingers who have shot a combined 211 times and have 63 points on the year. Calgary has been in a funk, but it looks like being at home is driving down the ownership for this line. If they are near this ownership, it’s easy to be more than double the field.
Over-Owned Stack
STL2
Jaden Schwartz – Brayden Schenn – Vladimir Tarasenko
On these small slates it’s best to be aware of exposures to lines that aren’t likely to be in the optimal because touching all lines should be the goal. On DraftKings and FanDuel there is no line with worse leverage and projected ownership over 20%. Getting shut out last night in Minnesota just adds to the list of disappointments for this team. Now flying home on a back-to-back against a young team with fresh legs, their exposure in your lines needs to be monitored.
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