Sunday’s two game NHL slate is an interesting one from a DFS standpoint, and there is one main angle that I’m looking to attack based on projected ownership percentages, particularly in larger GPPs. Let’s dive into my favorite stacks below and consider ways to look for potentially big scores.
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Best NHL DFS Picks Today | Jan. 29
Goalies
Darcy Kuemper (*Charlie Lindgren): $7,300 DraftKings | $7,200 FanDuel
Out of the four net-minding options on Sunday’s NHL slate Darcy Kuemper certainly might have the lowest floor, and this selection has the potential to be downright bad. However, that won’t happen anywhere nearly as often as the vast majority of owners seem to be projecting. That’s considering that despite being the cheapest goalie on the slate by a large margin, Kuemper projects to have ownership rates between 9-12%.
Fading a large offensive day from the Maple Leafs could be an excellent way to get a leg up on the field if Washington does manage a surprising performance. That’s a realistic narrative.
Washington has played to a 2.65 xGA/60 in the month of January, which is the second best mark in the entire league. Darcy Kuemper has been in excellent form this season, and has played to a +5.7 GSAx rating and .917 save % throughout 21 appearances.
Toronto will be without Auston Matthews, which does make a significant difference towards its offensive projections today compared to an average contest with the superstar manning their top line and powerplay.
Stokastic’s projections expect Kuemper to make 27.7 saves today, which is right on par with the rest of the options on the slate.
It’s far more realistic that those 27 saves come with a win and less than three goals against than the average owner seems to be expecting, and this play offers so much upside that it’s worth a shot in large fields.
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Stacks
Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie: $17,000 DraftKings | $18,800 FanDuel
Sticking with the narrative that its far more possible Toronto’s top gunners let down than people seem to expect, we have this stack from the Washington Capitals.
Stokastic’s top stack tool is making Washington’s potential on this NHL DFS slate clear. This top unit projects to have a 25.9% chance at being a top 2 stack, and is very cost efficient compared to the others while offering ownership rates around 20-25%.
Washington has generated far more chances offensively than its recent actual goal outputs suggest, and over the last 8 games the Capitals own a solid 3.42 xGF/60 rating which has been hidden by a -7.71 goals scored above expected rating.
Essentially Washington’s offence is still humming along fine, but an inability to finish chances from a team which has traditionally been elite at scoring is hiding the potential for a big day in Toronto.
Especially as Auston Matthews incredible defensive play down the middle is a key factor in the Leafs defensive dominance, and with him out of the picture it will open up significantly easier matchups for the Capitals top trio.
Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome and T.J. Oshie have played to a 3.87 xGF/60 rating in a small sample size of 29 minutes together, and the chemistry is seemingly there for the trio to thrive if Capitals coach Peter Laviolette lets the unit play meaningful minutes together.
Stacking the Capitals second line of Anthony Mantha, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Connor Sheary is another interesting option, but paying up for Washington’s top unit makes sense considering that even it will still easily allow you to build a side which remains under the cap.
Seth Jarvis, Teuvo Teravainen $18,100 DraftKings | $22,900 FanDuel
Both of Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis will skate versus the Boston Bruins in what will be a tough matchup to generate offence in, but that risk is worth taking as each does project to be significantly underpriced skating alongside Sebastien Aho on Carolina’s top line.
Teravainen in particular has been in notably better form recently, and his five points over the last five games is more the kind of play most hockey experts have been expecting all season long.
At just 4,200 on DraftKings and 5,300 on FanDuel, Teravainen projects to be one of the most valuable players on the slate. d
Defender
Dmitry Orlov $4,200 Draftkings, $5,700 FanDuel
Dimitry Orlov has quietly been in tremendous form all season long, and is a very interesting option if you are going to attack the angle that Washington could have a surprisingly big output on the road today.
Our projections rank Orlov among the top five most valuable defenders on the slate today, so this is far from a reach just to stick with the Capitals narrative. Orlov has skated more than 24 minutes per game in the Capitals last two games, and we should expect similarly massive usage today in what is another very crucial game for the Capitals.
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