The small Sunday NHL DFS four-game main slate features a ton of appealing offensive stacks, with a number of the top options sporting a new third member whose salary has not yet acclimated to the change in role. Let’s dive into the favorite angles from Sunday’s card.
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Best NHL DFS Picks Today | Jan. 22
Goalies
Linus Ullmark: $8,500 DraftKings | $8,800 FanDuel
When the top goalie in the NHL matches up against an offensive side as poor as the San Jose Sharks, obviously alarm bells start to go off for a ton of DFS players.
Our projections agree, and Linus Ullmark projects to generate a shutout 9.62% of the time for the Boston Bruins on Sunday, while allowing 2.25 expected goals on average.
What makes San Jose such an appealing matchup is that the Sharks actually generate a solid output of shots on goal and average 29.93 shots per 60 minutes over the past 10 games.
The offensive skaters capable of finishing chances are highly lacking however, and San Jose has again produced far fewer goals than expected this season, which is a trend that held true all of last season.
Ullmark projects to hold 29.5% ownership, but biting the bullet with the chalkiest option is very reasonable, as he still projects to hold the most value based on his salary by a significant margin.
Adin Hill: $7,800 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel
If the rest of your team build and/or format dictates differentiating from the most popular option as good strategy, Adin Hill would project as the best option by a decent margin.
The Vegas Golden Knights goalie projects with very similar numbers to those of Jonathan Quick (25.09 projected saves, 2.61 expected goals against, 6.45% shutout chance for the Los Angeles Kings), however that is based on a larger sample of play by the opponents (Arizona Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks).
Stepping back and taking a more handicapping approach, it’s very easy to point out that Chicago is actually in significantly better form offensively than Arizona, and is in somewhat of a notable upswing in that regard.
The wheels have completely fallen off offensively for Arizona, which has generated an anemic rate of 2.34 xGF/60 over the past 10 that is the worst in the NHL by a significant margin.
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Stacks
Drew Doughty*, Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe: $13,600 DraftKings | $8,400 FanDuel
At just $4,800, Drew Doughty projects to be one of the most valuable defensemen on this slate by a significant margin.
Stepping back from raw projections, which state that Doughty is the most likely to overachieve his modest salary, it’s obvious to state that his salary is too low for a legitimate No. 1 power play defenseman skating against Chicago, and 22.4% ownership is very livable as such.
Doughty lines up with Adrian Kempe on the Kings’ top power play unit and has heavy correlation for that reason, but especially so as the pair rotate the puck back and forth with Doughty at the top and Kempe on the left half-wall.
Quinton Byfield has found his way back on to the Kings’ top line with Kempe, and therefore his listed prices of $3,100 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel are far below what his projection dictates they should be.
Considering how much value Byfield projects to have at those numbers, ownership percentages around 12% are very modest.
This is a unique line, with each member holding a sky-high ceiling, and will allow a ton of salary room among the rest of a lineup.
Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler: $18,100 DraftKings | $22,900 FanDuel
The Winnipeg Jets’ new second line proved to be an absolute handful for the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, combining for four goals and nine points.
Ehlers could be particularly dangerous on FanDuel, as his higher salary of $9,200 leaves owners afraid of mixing him and putting ownership rates at around 5%.
Ehlers is legitimately one of the top wings in all of hockey with 16 points in 11 games, and $9,200 is a very reasonable salary, especially considering the kind of leverage it is offering. If Ehlers and Scheifele continue to show strong chemistry at even strength, scoring at a greater than 40-goal pace is very realistic the rest of the way.
If you saved some salary mixing in Byfield and Doughty, this Jets trio is an excellent way to spend it, and getting that kind of leverage on a goal-scorer as talented as Ehlers in a favorable matchup could be extremely rewarding.
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