There is a short four-game NHL slate tonight and there are not a lot of top-end options, so players need to be judicious with their NHL DFS picks. The premium tools and data here at Awesemo, like our NHL DFS ownership projections that are free for everyone to view for today, will help be a guide for this evening. Subscribers are encourage to check in on our Discord for updates, but let’s get to some DraftKings and FanDuel NHL picks tonight for this Wednesday, March 2.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
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Auston Matthews (TOR vs. BUF): DraftKings – $9,000 | FanDuel – $10,000
This may be the most obvious play on the entire slate given its size and the quality of Auston Matthews as a fantasy option, but it is worth pointing out why the highest-owned skater on the slate is worthy of that title.
With Buffalo coming into town, Matthews will face off against Buffalo’s top line. While they are excellent offensively, they are giving up 2.6 expected goals against and 3.6 actual goals against per 60 minutes. Those are not good defensive numbers and that is where Matthews and his linemates can really do some offensive damage. Since the All-Star break, they are managing 3.5 expected goals per 60 minutes and more than double that in actual goals. They are running hot by shooting percentage, but also playing extremely well.
The question is how to use Matthews tonight. He is at the top of the list for both cash games and tournaments, but also with significant ownership. Buffalo’s penalty kill is struggling mightily now, allowing the third-most expected goals over the last six weeks and the seventh-most actual goals per 60 minutes. That means he can be used in an even-strength stack, a power-play stack or even a six-man onslaught stack on DraftKings.
As mentioned above, Matthews can be used in a myriad of ways tonight when making your NHL picks tonight. His lofty salary can put some constraints on how you construct your lineups, but the DraftKings NHL DFS Cheat Sheet and FanDuel NHL Cheat Sheet can help you find some of the best value plays for your fantasy hockey lineups.
Ryan Johansen (NSH at SEA): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $5,000
It was not a very good month of February for Ryan Johansen with four points and 11 shots in eight games. His price has sunk like a stone over on DraftKings because of it and he cannot be ignored at that cost.
Among many things, his opponent in Seattle is enduring significant injuries right now. This is a team near the bottom of the league anyway and their top forward, Jared McCann, is injured. The Kraken does not have any depth to speak of and just this one injury weakens all their lines due to the domino effect. In other words, while Seattle likes to slow the game down a lot, this is the one injury upfront they could not afford to sustain. Johansen and his linemates will now get depleted depth matchups against Seattle, and that is good news for him.
Beyond that, the Seattle penalty kill is average at best and Johansen is still a fixture of Nashville’s top power play. Johansen’s problem is he does not shoot, which is why he is not even a cash-game consideration at his price. In tournaments, though, he is cheap enough to one-off or use as part of a Nashville power-play stack.
Winger
Adrian Kempe (LAK at DAL): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $5,600
On the season, Adrian Kempe is getting close to 3.0 shots on goal per game, a very good number that gives him a solid peripheral base. While his ice time can be a bit frustrating, sometimes being around 16 minutes and sometimes over 20, that is what makes him a solid tournament option. His line just finished an excellent month of November where they generated 2.8 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and controlled 67% of the scoring chances. Those are just superb numbers and reflect the level of play Kempe and his linemates have maintained most of this season.
The Dallas Stars have been healthy lately and that has reunited their checking line, including Radek Faksa. It is a mystery why they use his checking line against top lines, because they have been very bad this year, controlling fewer than 44% of the expected goal share and enduring 3.2 goals against per 60 minutes. They are a bad shutdown line and that is good news for Kempe and company.
Because his linemates play a lot of minutes with him, it is hard to one-off Kempe. At the same time, his shot rate makes it at least a conversation on DraftKings, and of course, stacking him with his linemates is fine as well.
Kyle Okposo (BUF at TOR): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $5,200
Very quietly, Kyle Okposo has put together a solid season for the Sabres despite not skating on their top line, with 82-game paces of 22 goals, 52 points and over 200 shots on goal. Considering where he is priced, a 20-goal scorer who can put up 2.5 shots per game does not come along that often.
There is also the matchup to consider. His line will avoid the Matthews matchup and Toronto’s second line has been very mediocre. The month of February saw them post 2.7 expected goals for and 2.6 against, with the goaltending behind them making their goals against look horrific. Not that Okposo’s line has been great, as they are actually below average by expected goal share, but they are above average offensively and it may not take much more than that in this matchup.
Of course, the price here is a big reason why Okposo is on this list. His price basically has him as a punt and he even has five shots-on-goal bonuses on DraftKings this year. He is fine as a punt by himself in tournaments, making some of the more expensive stacks on this slate more palatable, even stacking him along with the expensive Toronto guys.
Alexis Lafreni̬re (NYR vs. STL): DraftKings Р$2,700 | FanDuel Р$4,300
If nothing else, the move to the top line for Alexis Lafrenière has meant more ice time, skating nearly 15:30 over his last 10 games compared to nearly 13:30 in the 41 games prior to that. It has led to more shots on goal, though he is still well under two per game in this most recent span. That means he has a fairly low peripheral floor, or certainly lower than that of Okposo. The move to the top line has also led to a production jump and that is important, too.
With the first overall pick on the top line, that trio generated 3.4 expected goals per 60 minutes and 3.5 actual goals, carrying 58% of the scoring chances last month. Those are very good offensive numbers, which is why he is on this list. It is a tough matchup with the St. Louis top line in town but they are also struggling offensively, so that could help the Rangers push the pace here tonight.
Much like Okposo, Lafrenière is fine to use as a one-off in tournaments because of his role. However, unlike Okposo, he does not really shoot a lot so stacking him with his linemates in those tournaments also makes a lot of sense tonight.
Latest NHL DFS Content
Defensemen
Roman Josi (NSH at SEA): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,000
Even as the Nashville Predators have gone through a slide of late with just one regulation win in seven games, Roman Josi has not, as he had 9 points and 21 shots on goal in those seven games. He remains one of the top offensive defensemen in hockey, and there is a very good reason why he is priced where he is. Tonight, as mentioned in the section on Johansen, he faces a weakened Seattle team, one Nashville beat in Seattle just five weeks ago.
The issue with the Kraken is they do not really push the pace and Nashville has slowed down themselves as the season has worn on. That can make it tough for Josi to rack up peripherals, but he is in a wonderful spot to have a big production night should Seattle not be on their game. He is a target as a one-off in tournaments tonight.
Miro Heiskanen (DAL vs. LAK): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $4,900
The Dallas Stars’ power play had a very bad month of February, nearing the bottom-10 by expected goals generated and failing to score a single goal. That has forced them to change up the top powerplay unit, adding Miro Heiskanen alongside John Klingberg. There is no telling if this is the cure that fixes this man advantage, but it does give Heiskanen some additional fantasy value that he did not have before. This is not a particularly great power play matchup for the Stars, but this is also a very small slate and Heiskanen has a very reasonable price. He is in play as a one-off in all formats or can be used in a tournament stack.
Goalie
Igor Shesterkin (NYR vs. STL): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $8,300
Even without hundreds of games played, you eventually have to consider that Igor Shesterkin is flat-out the top goalie in the world. Over the last two seasons, his high-danger save percentage (one indicator of goalie talent) is .880, which is by far the best in hockey. This is not necessarily a great matchup for him by shot volume, but he is easily the most talented goalie on this slate and has been elite all season long. At his price, he does not need monster shot volume to be valuable tonight and it is hard to pass up on his ability when he is not expensive. He needs to be considered in all formats tonight.
For a cheap goalie over on FanDuel, consider Phillipp Grubauer (SEA – $7,100).
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
LAK1: Kempe-Kopitar-Iafallo
As mentioned in the section earlier on Kempe, the Stars are unlikely to send out their best line against this Kings trio, and that does not leave much defensively to be concerned about. This line is very reasonably priced across the industry, which means they are very flexible with any other lines DFS players want to use. This line just had a month where they nearly doubled their output of scoring chances generated compared to scoring chances allowed. As they are one of the best stacks tonight, they need to be considered for GPPs.
STL3: Schenn-Barbashev-Kyrou
With Shesterkin in the net, this is a very tough matchup for the St. Louis Blues. Always approach stacking against the Rangers with caution. With that said, the Rangers are welcoming Filip Chytil back to the third line after an injury absence, but that third line has been very poor defensively without Lafrenière, who is on the top line for New York. This really is a great line matchup for the Blues, even if the goaltending matchup is brutal. Anyone avoiding stacking the Blues can be forgiven for doing so, but they require some consideration on a short slate like this.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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