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Best NFL Betting Picks for Week 4 Sunday Night Football on BetMGM | Patriots vs. Buccaneers

Mark Kieffer



Tonight Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will go to Foxboro to face Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 4 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 4 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football

Point Spread: Patriots +6.5 (-110)

Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for point totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of 5.5 points, but BetMGM has the point spread set at 6.5 points. Taking the Patriots and the 7.5 points provides a positive ROI, as the expected ROI was 10.7% when the spread was at 7 points. New England has the No. 2 passing defense in the NFL, allowing just 159.7 yards passing per game. If New England’s pass defense has a great game, this can be a close game.

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N’Keal Harry Yards Receiving: Under 10.5 (-120)

When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. There are a lot of routes to go with player props for this game tonight. N’Keal Harry having under 10.5 yards receiving is one of the best prop bets of the night, as the model gives a projection of 4.02 receptions. When the line was at 11.5 yards, there was an 88% chance of winning the bet. Harry has been activated from injured reserve, and this will be his first appearance of the 2021 season.

Tom Brady Completions: Over 25.5 (-120)

The player props tool projects Tom Brady to have 27.61 completions on the night, with a 65% chance for the bet to win. When the odds were at (-110), the expected ROI on the bet was 24%. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in the NFL in pass play percentage and averages 65 plays per game on offense. To have Brady not complete 26 passes would mean he would have worse than a 53% completion percentage. This is the best Tampa Bay prop of the night.

Mac Jones Completions: Under 25.5 (-110)

The player props tool projects Mac Jones to have 22.41 completions on the night, and the bet has a 75% chance to win with a 43% expected ROI. Game log watchers will see that Jones attempted 51 passes Week 3, and 39 passes in Week 1 and Jones completed 30 and 29 passes, respectively. In Week 2, they ran just 30 passing plays and completed 22 of them. New England averages 65.7 plays run per game, and they pass the ball 63.9% of the time . This would create an expectation of 42 pass attempts if that pace and those percentages hold. Betting the over means one believes Mac Jones will complete about 62% of his passes.

One Game Parlay (+750)

The best one-game Parlay at BetMGM is Nelson Agholor over 49.5 receiving yards (53.68 projected), Mac Jones one or more passing touchdowns (1.65 projected), total points under 49.5 (48.5 projected), and Buccaneers moneyline (65% chance projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 7.5x.

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