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Kwik Trip 250 NASCAR Betting Picks & Predictions | Sunday 7/3

Phillip Bennetzen



NASCAR Kwik Trip 250 predictions betting picks odds lines strategy how to bet on Denny Hamlin

NASCAR heads to Tennessee for the Kwik Trip 250, live from Road America this Sunday afternoon. Let’s dive into expert NASCAR picks this week and go over a few options for the outright market, positional selections and the best Kwik Trip 250 betting picks and predictions for Sunday’s event.

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NASCAR Picks & Predictions: Kwik Trip 250

Ross Chastain to Win (+800)

Daniel Suarez to Win (+1400)

This week at Road America finds Elliott as the short +450 favorite followed by Kyle Larson at +700 and Ross Chastain at +800. No other driver in Sunday’s field has single-digit odds to win. Right off the top, Elliott “should” be the favorite after winning what amounts to be the Cup Series inaugural race at Road America, even after starting 33rd. However, through Sonoma and COTA, Elliott isn’t asserting his will at road races (although he’s led the second-most laps) as he has in past seasons. Instead of blaming “mediocre” finishes of fourth and eighth this year in road races on Elliott’s declining skill, chances are the field has caught up to Elliott thanks to everyone learning on the fly with this seventh-generation car.

One driver who has excelled in transitioning from the generation-six car into this year’s version has been Ross Chastain. Although there have only been two road races thus far in 2022, no driver has a better average finish (4.5), laps led (15.5), fastest laps (10), average running position (6.5), or driver rating (121.1). In fact, it may not just be a Chastain thing as he won at COTA but saw his teammate Daniel Suarez lead the most laps (47) en route to his victory at Sonoma. Green flag speed rankings wise, Chastain ranked first at COTA and eighth at Sonoma while Suarez ranked sixth at COTA and second at Sonoma. This is all to say that the team owned by a former road racing ace continually gives his drivers fast cars at road races and both are confident enough in their talent to push these vehicles to get the most out of them.

Unlike Sonoma, the race shouldn’t be dictated by qualifying as the bevy of passing zones can allow anyone to race their way through the field. Thus, regardless of where Suarez or Chastain start on Sunday, expect them to unload with fast vehicles and march both of them toward the front and contend for the win.

Best Kwik Trip 250 NASCAR Pick: Ross Chastain to Win +700/Daniel Suarez to Win (+1400)

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NASCAR Betting Matchup: Ty Dillon +280 Over Chase Briscoe

On the periphery, this looks like one of those, “Why did BetMGM even offer this?” egregious bets. Besides wondering why Chase Briscoe versus Ty Dillon is one of four featured matchups, the next question becomes why would someone consider betting $40 to win $10 in what should be an easy win? Yes, this as a featured matchup is quasi-ridiculous. However, taking the Dillon side of this matchup at +280 really isn’t that crazy. Taking Dillon boils down to choosing consistency versus the roller coaster that is Briscoe.

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Since the Daytona Road Course race of 2019, Dillon has been finishing in the upper 20s in most events, save for this race last year. Briscoe, on the other hand, has three top-10 finishes, two other top-20 finishes, but also has three finishes of 26th or worse mixed in. Furthermore, in three of his past four road races, he only has one finish better than 22nd.

Best Kwik Trip 250 NASCAR Pick: Ty Dillon +280 over Chase Briscoe

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More Kwik Trip 250 NASCAR Picks, Parlays and Best Bets

The following is an intriguing list of picks, parlays and best bets being offered by BetMGM for this Sunday afternoon’s race at Road America:

  • Denny Hamlin to be top Toyota, Joey Logano to be top Ford and Kyle Larson to be top Chevrolet: +8000
  • Featured matchup: Chase Elliott -190 over Martin Truex Jr.
  • Featured matchup: Christopher Bell -105 over Kyle Busch
  • Manufacturer of winning car: Chevrolet -120
  • Top Ford car: Austin Cindric +325
  • Top Chevrolet car: Ross Chastain +425

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Phill Bennetzen is a father, husband, and Catholic as well as a self-professed annoying fitness guy. Phill heads up NASCAR content at You can contact Phill by emailing [email protected].

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