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Quaker State 400 NASCAR Betting Picks & Predictions | Sunday 7/10

Phillip Bennetzen



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NASCAR heads to Georgia for the Quaker State 400, live from Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon. Let’s dive into expert NASCAR picks this week and go over a few options for the outright market, positional selections, and the best Quaker State 400 betting picks and predictions for Sunday’s event.

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NASCAR Picks & Predictions: Quaker State 400

Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+2200)

With a return, to what has become a miniature superspeedway, all drivers are on the table this week. Consequently, BetMGM has treated Sunday’s field as if this were a race at Talladega or Daytona with no driver getting single-digit odds to win and the longest odds offered are just 300/1 for the likes of BJ McLeod, Josh Bilicki, Garrett Smithley, and Cody Ware. Thus, there really aren’t long odds, in comparison to what would be on the board in a 2021 race at Atlanta, but there is definitely some value out there. Leading the board is a driver at much longer odds than he’s normally offered at – Martin Truex Jr.

The last time Truex saw odds shorter than 12/1 was at Talladega when he was initially offered at 33/1 to win that day. In fact, after just one day of odds being up, Truex has already seen his number shaved down from +2500 down to its current +2200, and for good reason. To begin with, Truex had found himself in a weird lull at superspeedways after moving over to Joe Gibbs Racing in comparison to his time at Furniture Row. From the Daytona 500 of 2020 up until the summer Daytona race of 2021 (seven superspeedway events), Truex had just one top-20 finish. However, since then, his worst finish in four races was 13th in this season’s Daytona 500. Of all drivers in Sunday’s field, Truex owns the second-best average finish (8.6) of anyone at superspeedway races in 2022, trailing only Chase Elliott (7.6).

Furthermore, it’s becoming more likely that all playoff drivers will have at least one victory to their name this season. Thus, expect the 19 team to make a concerted effort to get Truex out front, hold position, and not just play it safe with points, but instead chase the victory and seal Truex into the playoffs.

Best Quaker State 400 NASCAR Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to Win +2200

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NASCAR Betting Matchup: Erik Jones to Win +3300

Speaking of the playoffs, another driver who should be trying to capitalize on the potential variance of this race should be Erik Jones. With nine races remaining before the end of the regular season, Jones is firmly out of the playoffs in the 18th position, trailing Christopher Bell by 85 points.

In the Spring edition of this race, Jones ran particularly well but his end effort doesn’t indicate such. Jones started his day in the 23rd position, moved up to third by the halfway point, was sitting in fifth with 32 laps remaining, but found himself in 14th by the end of the race. During that span between lap 303 and the end at lap 325, there were two wrecks and four lead changes among three drivers. Jones never led a lap that day but he appears to have been playing a long game, waiting back to capitalize on a late mistake much like Corey Lajoie did finishing fourth despite running around 20th all day. Unfortunately for Jones, that chance never occurred. However, with Atlanta being his best shot to sneak into the playoffs until the second Daytona race goes down in August, the former Daytona winner should look to put himself back in prime position to get the Petty-GMS partnership their first victory.

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Best Quaker State 400 NASCAR Pick: Erik Jones to Win +3300

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More Quaker State 400 NASCAR Picks, Parlays and Best Bets

The following is an intriguing list of picks, parlays and best bets being offered by BetMGM for this Sunday afternoon’s race at Atlanta:

  • Justin Haley top 10, +140
  • Corey Lajoie top 10, +325
  • Featured Matchup: Martin Truex Jr. +100 over Ryan Blaney
  • Featured Matchup: Michael McDowell +115 over Bubba Wallace
  • Top Chevrolet Car: Ross Chastain +550
  • Top Ford Car: Brad Keselowski +1000
  • Top Toyota Car: Martin Truex Jr. +600

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Phill Bennetzen is a father, husband, and Catholic as well as a self-professed annoying fitness guy. Phill heads up NASCAR content at You can contact Phill by emailing [email protected].

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