Connect with us

nfl betting

Million Dollar NFL Parlay Picks for Sunday Week 15 | D.J. Moore & Carolina Panthers




FanDuel NFL DFS picks Week 4 daily fantasy football cheat sheet free expert projections rankings ownership optimal lineup optimizer DJ Moore

The NFL now has nine games for the main slate on Sunday, which is a perfect opportunity to use Awesemo OddsShopper to build some of the best NFL parlay picks today. Using this fantastic site can help place smart wagers in an easy-to-use fashion and maximize the ROI on the wagers. It is truly betting made simple since you can find the best bet in 30 seconds or less. 

NFL Picks & Parlays Today: Best Betting Picks

The first step is finding which sport to wager on, so the banner at the top of the screen has the sports separated. Once on the NFL page, it is super simple to customize teams and players on the left-hand side of the page.

Now, if you miss one of the odds highlighted in the article because it changed, do not worry. The lines do not always stay the same as they are updated every two minutes. There will be examples of when you can still wager based on the Awesemo projections. It is also easy to sort the props by what style you want to bet them, meaning that you can choose the highest ROI or the highest expected win rate.

Generally, the best approach is a mix of the highest ROI and expected win rate, and this process should take under 30 seconds to filter what you are looking for. As a reminder, betting the props individually is always a smart way to build your bankroll. Let’s find out what the best-projected bets are for this week and build an eight-leg parlay for the slate!

Get up to a $1,500 Risk Free First Bet

D.J. Moore Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

The Carolina Panthers are in an unenviable matchup against the Buffalo Bills on the road, but the number for D.J. Moore is incredibly low. OddsShopper has him projected for 79.4 yards which is a massive gap between the line and the expected win rate is 75%. On the year, Moore has had a revolving door at quarterback but he’s seventh in air yards (98.5 yards per game), 11th in receiving yards (72.2 yards per game), seventh in targets (9.4 per game), and fourth in target share (28.4%). The game script would point to Moore being targeted a lot because the Panthers are 12 point underdogs. With all the metrics supporting him, Moore is a strong start to the NFL parlay.

Marvin Jones Over 3.5 Receptions 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are free from the tyranny of Urban Meyer and his coaching so Marvin Jones is a more appealing target to add to the NFL parlay. OddsShopper gives Jones an expected win rate of 61% to hit at least four receptions and he has a 19.2% target share on the season. Even though it has been a challenging season, Jones has averaged 4.2 receptions per game and has seen at least six targets in four of the last five games. He plays primarily on the boundary which should lead him to face Terrance Mitchell of the Texans. On the season, Mitchell has been targeted 57 times and has allowed a 61.4% catch rate with a 126.2 passer rating allowed. 

Julio Jones Over 53.5 Receiving Yards 

This wager takes a small leap of faith given what Julio Jones has done this season, as he’s battled injuries and inconsistency. However, the Tennessee Titans head into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers and they are without receiver A.J. Brown. Jones played just under 50% of the snaps last week in his first game in over a month and came out of that game with no injury setbacks. Even in limited snaps, he was targeted six times and through the year, he’s averaged 52.7 yards per game. His seasonal target rate is just 17.8% but that’s not reflective of the current state of the Titans offense. Jones has averaged 2.37 yards per route (13th) and 14.8 yards per reception (24th) and OddsShopper gives him an expected win rate of 58%. 

Tail Awesemo's Sports Betting Picks Today!

Kyler Murray Over 255.5 Passing Yards 

The Arizona Cardinals are 12-point favorites in Detroit on Sunday when they face the Lions and Murray is in a fantastic matchup to rack up passing yards in a hurry. Detroit is 32nd in yards allowed per attempt, 18th in completion rate allowed, and 30th in DVOA against the pass. They have faced an incredible amount of injuries in their secondary and Murray leads the league in yards per attempt at 8.7 yards and true completion rate at 79.2%. While the Cardinals may not need to pass an overwhelming amount of times, Murray should find little resistance. Arizona is missing receiver DeAndre Hopkins but his target share this season has only been 20.5%. That’s not even in the top 30 for receivers and OddsShopper gives Murray an expected win rate of 67%. 

Myles Gaskin Over 2.5 Receptions 

Depending on the sportsbook, Myles Gaskin could be a strong boost to the NFL parlay because he is currently an underdog to record three receptions. The Miami Dolphins still have some question marks on who will be available as Jaylen Waddle is currently in health and safety protocols. He has not been ruled out for the game but the running back room appears to be thin. Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and recently signed Duke Johnson are in line to be the only three backs active for the matchup against the New York Jets. OddsShopper has this wager at an expected win rate of 77% and Gaskin already runs the 10th most routes among backs and averages 3.5 receptions per game. If Waddle can’t play, his role would just increase since Waddle leads the team in target share at 23.8%. 

Tim Patrick Under 3.5 Receptions 

One of the higher expected win rates from OddsShopper in this parlay is Tim Patrick recording three or fewer receptions at 74%. It makes an awful lot of sense because the Broncos offense is fully healthy with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant. The Cincinnati Bengals defense ranks just 19th in DVOA but Patrick is struggling to see consistent targets with an average quarterback and crowded offense. Since Week 8 when Jeudy has come back from injury, Patrick has had a 16.1% target share. That is second in the Broncos offense but that’s also just 27 targets overall through six games, barely over four targets per game. He’s seen a 78.8% catchable pass rate and is averaging just 3.2 receptions per game. On top of all that, Bengals cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is waiting as the opposition for most plays. He’s only allowed a 52.9% catch rate on the season, all of which point to Patrick going under this number. 

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Update – Awuzie is out but it does not change the structure of the Denver offense.

Deebo Samuel Over 41.5 Receiving Yards 

Patrick may have been one of the highest expected win rates, but Deebo Samuel takes the top mark at 79% from OddsShopper. It has been a bit of a slow few weeks for Samuel in the passing game, having recorded fewer than 25 receiving yards in three straight games. His targets have plummeted with just seven and he’s being utilized more as a running back with 20 rushing attempts in the past three weeks. San Francisco is still missing Elijah Mitchell this week but the line is so low and the matchup against the Atlanta secondary is so strong that it’s hard to overlook. They allow the fifth-highest completion rate at 68.6% on the season, rank 19th in yards allowed per attempt, and 30th in DVOA against the pass. Even with a slow period, Samuel is seventh in receiving yards among receivers at 1,028 and averages 85.7 yards per game. 

The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds

Davante Adams Over 89.5 Receiving Yards 

In fairness, OddsShopper only has an expected win rate of 52% on this wager and Davante Adams is projected for 94.6 yards. This is still a strong way to close out an NFL parlay and knowing the state of the Baltimore Ravens secondary makes it very appealing to bet on any receiver for the Green Bay Packers. The Ravens have simply suffered so many injuries this year. Their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey has been out for the season and they are allowing the third-highest yards per attempt at 7.4. On the season among receivers, Adams ranks first in target share (32.6%), third in yards (100.3 per game), third in receptions (7.5 per game), second in yards per route (3.35), and 13th in deep targets (1.6 per game). Anytime Adams is under 90 yards for his line, he is well worth adding to a big parlay. If all eight legs were to hit, the Awesemo Parlay Calculator has a massive return of +14,331 and that’s always worth a small wager.

Join STOKASTIC+ today!
Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.

Sign up to Receive Expert DFS Advice & Exclusive Offers From Stokastic

Subscriber Counter

We respect your email privacy

More Betting