The 2022 Super Bowl is inching closer, and now that it is just a few days away, the NFL player prop market is wide open. Now is a great time to start placing wagers because the market will surely change closer to kickoff and there are edges to be gained betting early. Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams boast extremely talented offenses, and a line can move just a few yards, but those yards can be the difference between winning and losing NFL bets. OddsShopper makes this job incredibly easy because they sort every sportsbook available in any state where gambling is legal. Using Awesemo’s data scientists expert projections, the best 2022 Super Bowl parlay bets, picks and props are easy to find. Check out this Super Bowl 56 parlay below that pays almost 20-1!
2022 Super Bowl Parlay Bets, Picks & Best Props
Joe Mixon Under 3.5 Receptions & Under 25.5 Yards Receiving
While this may seem like a bet to smash the over, the Bengals insist on making Samaje Perine a part of the offense. Credit must be given to Perine for scoring a long touchdown receiving in the AFC Championship game, but it was not something Joe Mixon couldn’t do himself. Mixon did end up with 42 receptions in the regular season, and he has tacked on another 13 in the playoffs, but the target share was only 9.4% — 28th among running backs. Additionally, he has only averaged 22.1 yards receiving per game through 19 games. It has not been for lack of routes as he averaged 17.6 per game, good for seventh among running backs.
Logic would say in the Super Bowl that Cincinnati would not want to take him off the field but that logic did not stand up in the AFC Championship game. The Bengals offensive line has their work cut out for them in this game and Joe Burrow could be forced to throw check-downs but some of those look like they’ll go to Perine. That could help hold Mixon under 3.5 and the expected wind rate from OddsShopper is 80%, the highest of any prop. The receiving yards prop is lower but the expected win rate there is still 66% with a projection of 22.8 receiving yards.
Joe Burrow Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The expected win rate is a coin flip from OddsShopper at 51% but the ROI is strong at +120 and that is always something that boosts up a parlay. The publicity that Joe Burrow has gotten in this playoff run has sort of overshadowed the actual production as he is thrown just four touchdowns in three playoff games. One of those came in questionable circumstances against the Raiders and the Perine touchdown was a long screen pass that was perfectly blocked. Of course, the best approach is to not cherry-pick what fits the narrative for the wager but the Rams have only allowed 19 touchdown passes combined in the regular season and playoffs. Additionally, they ranked in the top five in DVOA against the pass and were 12th in touchdown rate allowed inside the red zone (54.1%). Burrow is far from guaranteed to throw two or more touchdowns.
Van Jefferson Over 2.5 Receptions
There is no getting around Van Jefferson has been somewhat of the forgotten man in the Rams offense for the latter part of the season. Not only does Cooper Kupp demand a mammoth target share but as Odell Beckham Jr. got more comfortable in the offense, Jefferson has been just a bit player. From Week 13 to Week 18, Jefferson had just a 13.5% target share and in the playoffs, he slipped to under 10%. However, it certainly looks as though tight end Tyler Higbee may not be able to play in the Super Bowl. He is yet to practice after an MCL sprain in the NFC Championship game and the closer it gets to the game, the less likely it looks he will be active.
Now that the Rams have had two weeks to plan for his potential absence, Jefferson could step into a larger role. Higbee had accounted for 14 targets in the playoffs and only played 14 snaps in his last game, in which he was targeted three times. Through the playoffs, Higbee has a 14.6% target share and if that has to get redistributed, Jefferson could be in line for a few extra targets in the biggest game of the season. OddsShopper is giving Jefferson an expected win rate of 57% and he is projected for three receptions.
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Cooper Kupp Over 0.5 Yards Rushing
This wager is far and away the largest ROI of the parlay and even OddsShopper has it with just a 40% expected win rate. If the parlay is held at the previous four legs, the Awesemo Parlay Calculator gives it a return of +1711 but if Kupp is added, the return skyrockets to +6239. Kupp only has five rushing attempts all season, but he did have one last week (although it went for -2 yards). One aspect that faded from the Rams offense when receiver Robert Woods tore his ACL is receivers rushing the ball as Woods had eight attempts through nine weeks. All it would take for Kupp to hit the over is one simple jet sweep and it would not be surprising at all to see the Rams dive deep into the playbook and get the ball into Kupp’s hands as much as they can. The Bengals finished the season ranked 13th in DVOA against the run and so far through three games in the playoffs, they are allowing 5.9 yards per attempt and 127.3 yards per game on the ground.
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