With the start of the NFL season, the Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Buccaneers vs. Patriots Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Week 4 Sunday Night Football NFL Player Props
Mac Jones Under 262.5 Yards Passing (-115, BetMGM)
The heir apparent under center in New England may have an uphill battle on Sunday evening, according to the NFL Player Props Tool. Given a player prop of 262.5 yards, Mac Jones draws a 60% expected win rate on the under for Sunday Night Football. As Jones is projected for several yards shy at 251.75 yards passing, the under is distilled a suggested 12% return on investment. Over the first three weeks, Jones has managed just 737 passing yards and 245.66 passing yards per game. Dragging a 67.5% completion rate thus far on 81 completions (120 pass attempts), along with losing a safety net in James White for the season, the new catalyst to this Patriots’ offense is dealt no favors come Sunday. The under just — sadly — makes sense here.
Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions (+120, PointsBet)
It’s looking like Rob Gronkowski will be absent from his revenge game, presuming a pour-over in targets to Chris Godwin. With Godwin bestowed a player prop of 5.5 catches, the NFL Player Props Tool suggests a 59% expected win rate on the over. Godwin’s projection of 5.54 receptions couldn’t get much closer, while the props tool’s suggested 30% return on investment remains inviting. Through three games Godwin accounts for 18.7% of team targets, reeling in 19 receptions on 25 targets for 241 receiving yards and 6.33 receptions per game. Likely drawing the defense of Jonathan Jones much of the game, Godwin remains at a vantage point one-on-one, while Jones has allowed seven receptions on 10 targets to receivers defended. Gronkowski’s seven targets per game have to go somewhere and getting plus-money odds on Godwin’s receptions in the scenario projects as a rewarding play.
Mac Jones Over 4.5 Yards Rushing (-115, PointsBet)
Mac Jones didn’t register a rushing yard in his first two games, but the props tool heavily suggests otherwise on Sunday Night Football. With a player prop of 4.5 rushing yards Jones is forecast a 92% expected win rate on the over by the tool. Projected for 15.88 rushing yards against the Bucs, the over on Jones’ rushing yards draws the tool’s suggested 73% return on investment. Last week against the Saints, Jones was forced to scramble often, yet netted 28 rushing yards in lieu of such over the course of four quarters. I suspect a similar wrinkle to this game script, considering the Todd Bowles-led Bucs defense that thrives on the pass rush. Snag the moderate juice on such a low rushing total.
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