Thursday Night Football presents an NFC West showdown with the Twelfth Man at home as the Los Angeles Rams head into Lumen Field to battle the Seattle Seahawks. With the start of the NFL season, the Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 5 NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Rams vs. Seahawks Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 5 Thursday Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
Tyler Higbee Over 3.5 Receptions (-125, Caesars)
Tyler Higbee is the Rams’ third option by target volume in the Rams passing game, and the NFL Player Props Tool gives him a 65% chance of going over 3.5 receptions. He projects for 4.27 receptions against Seattle and a 17% return on investment. Higbee is averaging 3.75 receptions per game and accounts for 16.1% of the Rams receptions this season. The Seahawks defense is 18th in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends, allowing 5.25 per game. The -125 juice may not be the most inviting, but considering Higbee’s involvement in the Rams receiving game, it is easy to side with the over here.
D.K. Metcalf Over 71.5 Yards Receiving (-115, PointsBet)
With Chris Carson possibly absent tonight, D.K. Metcalf projects for a greater workload. Metcalf has been averaging a hair beneath his player prop of 71.5 yards receiving this season, and the NFL Player Props Tool gives the over a 59% expected win rate. Projected for 78.48 yards, the over on Metcalf has a 5% expected return on investment. Metcalf has picked up the pace over the past two weeks and is the Seahawks’ yardage leader, accounting for 29.7% of the team’s yards receiving and 20% of the total offense.
The Rams defense has allowed 179.25 yards receiving per game to opposing wide receivers, along with 7.97 yards per target. Metcalf has averaged 75.7 yards receiving per game at home in Seattle over his career. Despite drawing some of the game’s best coverage in Jalen Ramsey, it is hard to imagine Metcalf not being heavily involved given the potential absence of Carson. Get the over at moderate juice before the line moves throughout the day.
Matthew Stafford Over 297.5 Yards Passing (-118, BetMGM)
Matthew Stafford continues to excel, and the NFL Player Props Tool projects that to continue on Thursday Night. Stafford is averaging 305.5 yards passing per game this season, drawing a 62% expected win rate for the over on a line of 297.5 yards. With Stafford projected for 323.35 yards, he sets up the over for a suggested 15% return on investment. The Seahawks defense is allowing 310.75 yards passing per game and 7.92 yards passing per attempt on 66.8% completion. Although Darrell Henderson is in position to blow up tonight against a bad Seahawks run defense, the Rams offense runs primarily through Stafford and their receiving corps. Snag the over on Stafford’s lower line at moderate house juice.
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