Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.10 | 1 | 1992 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.74 | 54 | 1820 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.95 | 16 | 1846 |
| Sam Burns | -1.80 | 27 | 1828 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.69 | 45 | 1813 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.64 | 38 | 1808 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.74 | 28 | 1820 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.42 | 51 | 1780 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.50 | 49 | 1789 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.52 | 41 | 1792 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | -1.40 | 1777 | |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.55 | 40 | 1795 |
| Tom Kim | -1.38 | 59 | 1774 |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.44 | 1,000 | 1783 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.48 | 50 | 1788 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.14 | 95 | 1743 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -1.28 | 62 | 1761 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.10 | 93 | 1739 |
| Eric Cole | -1.09 | 71 | 1738 |
| Seamus Power | -1.13 | 75 | 1743 |
| Harry Hall | -1.19 | 58 | 1750 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.17 | 107 | 1747 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.10 | 82 | 1738 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -1.03 | 103 | 1731 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.18 | 66 | 1749 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.07 | 87 | 1735 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.25 | 63 | 1757 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.22 | 60 | 1754 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -0.99 | 77 | 1725 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.08 | 89 | 1736 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.06 | 65 | 1734 |
| Matthew McCarty | -1.11 | 1,000 | 1741 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.29 | 69 | 1763 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -0.99 | 68 | 1725 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.08 | 78 | 1736 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.90 | 88 | 1714 |
| Jesper Svensson | -0.95 | 1,000 | 1720 |
| Chan Kim | -0.91 | 102 | 1715 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.15 | 79 | 1745 |
| Matt Kuchar | -0.74 | 84 | 1693 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.76 | 160 | 1695 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.90 | 110 | 1714 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.77 | 98 | 1697 |
| Davis Riley | -0.81 | 143 | 1702 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.00 | 73 | 1726 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.79 | 86 | 1699 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.76 | 101 | 1696 |
| Karl Vilips | -0.45 | 1,000 | 1656 |
| Cameron Davis | -1.13 | 90 | 1743 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.85 | 100 | 1708 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | -0.60 | 1,000 | 1676 |
| Victor Perez | -0.88 | 72 | 1711 |
| Justin Lower | -0.75 | 94 | 1694 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.82 | 115 | 1703 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.49 | 108 | 1662 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.69 | 124 | 1686 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -0.83 | 80 | 1704 |
| Beau Hossler | -0.82 | 96 | 1704 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.69 | 85 | 1687 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.76 | 142 | 1696 |
| Ricky Castillo | -0.76 | 81 | 1696 |
| Hayden Springer | -0.91 | 70 | 1715 |
| Max McGreevy | -0.83 | 106 | 1705 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.48 | 158 | 1660 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.54 | 137 | 1668 |
| Andrew Putnam | -0.87 | 76 | 1710 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.51 | 136 | 1664 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.52 | 151 | 1665 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -0.55 | 122 | 1670 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.25 | 167 | 1631 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.57 | 120 | 1671 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.54 | 165 | 1667 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.77 | 119 | 1696 |
| Jeremy Paul | -0.46 | 1,000 | 1658 |
| Brian Campbell | -0.51 | 1,000 | 1664 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | -0.38 | 1,000 | 1648 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.71 | 113 | 1689 |
| Antoine Rozner | -0.41 | 1,000 | 1652 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.63 | 123 | 1680 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.56 | 114 | 1670 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.65 | 109 | 1682 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | -0.56 | 125 | 1671 |
| Carson Young | -0.51 | 128 | 1664 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.58 | 112 | 1673 |
| Christo Lamprecht | -0.18 | 1,000 | 1623 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.40 | 154 | 1650 |
| Zac Blair | -0.10 | 144 | 1612 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.40 | 134 | 1651 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.23 | 150 | 1628 |
| Danny Walker | -0.67 | 99 | 1685 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | -0.27 | 184 | 1634 |
| Ben Martin | -0.15 | 157 | 1618 |
| Kris Ventura | -0.36 | 1,000 | 1645 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.35 | 121 | 1644 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.07 | 149 | 1608 |
| Matthew NeSmith | -0.24 | 1630 | |
| Luke List | -0.24 | 141 | 1630 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.46 | 132 | 1658 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.20 | 139 | 1625 |
| Matteo Manassero | -0.20 | 1,000 | 1625 |
| William Mouw | -0.36 | 1,000 | 1645 |
| Thomas Morrison | 0.19 | 1,000 | 1576 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.22 | 153 | 1628 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | -0.20 | 1,000 | 1625 |
| Kevin Tway | 0.11 | 135 | 1586 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.04 | 148 | 1605 |
| Noah Goodwin | -0.18 | 1,000 | 1623 |
| Patton Kizzire | 0.15 | 172 | 1581 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.20 | 133 | 1624 |
| Jackson Suber | 0.32 | 1,000 | 1559 |
| Frankie Capan | 0.31 | 1,000 | 1560 |
| Tim Widing | 0.03 | 186 | 1595 |
| David Skinns | 0.05 | 181 | 1594 |
| Will Gordon | 0.00 | 169 | 1599 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.04 | 164 | 1604 |
| Martin Laird | 0.15 | 140 | 1581 |
| David Lipsky | 0.32 | 163 | 1559 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.42 | 179 | 1547 |
| Norman Xiong | 0.58 | 1,000 | 1527 |
| Kevin Velo | 0.33 | 1,000 | 1557 |
| Chesson Hadley | 0.44 | 156 | 1544 |
| Taylor Dickson | 0.34 | 1,000 | 1557 |
| Paul Peterson | 0.82 | 1,000 | 1496 |
| Nelson Ledesma | 1.00 | 1473 | |
| Harry Higgs | 0.34 | 200 | 1556 |
| Matthew Riedel | 0.66 | 1,000 | 1516 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.95 | 197 | 1480 |
| Braden Thornberry | 0.46 | 1,000 | 1541 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.62 | 182 | 1520 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.54 | 199 | 1532 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.69 | 1512 | |
| John Pak | 0.31 | 175 | 1560 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.72 | 183 | 1509 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 1.15 | 193 | 1454 |
| Will Chandler | 0.80 | 1,000 | 1498 |
| Trevor Cone | 0.68 | 1514 | |
| Peter Malnati | 0.84 | 198 | 1493 |
| Kaito Onishi | 0.58 | 1,000 | 1527 |
| Mason Andersen | 0.80 | 1,000 | 1498 |
| Noah Kent | 1.75 | 1,000 | 1378 |
| Kris Kim | 1.57 | 1,000 | 1401 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.90 | 214 | 1359 |
| Sung Kang | 1.88 | 1361 | |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 1.42 | 1,000 | 1419 |
| Paul Waring | 1.63 | 1393 | |
| Seungbin Choi | 2.27 | 1,000 | 1312 |
| Anders Albertson | 1.09 | 195 | 1462 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.62 | 207 | 1395 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.40 | 210 | 1423 |
| Philip Knowles | 1.74 | 205 | 1380 |
| Brandon Matthews | 2.37 | 1300 | |
| Vince Covello | 2.35 | 1302 | |
| Gabe Reynolds | 2.62 | 1,000 | 1268 |
| Bobby Massa | 1.34 | 1,000 | 1430 |
| Ross Steelman | 0.94 | 1,000 | 1480 |
| Nick Watney | 1.66 | 1390 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Justin Thomas | -2.71 | 4 | 1943 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.22 | 12 | 1881 |
| Daniel Berger | -2.00 | 19 | 1853 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.13 | 14 | 1869 |
| Rory McIlroy | -3.17 | 2 | 2001 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.77 | 1 | 2077 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.30 | 9 | 1890 |
| Sam Burns | -1.88 | 27 | 1837 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.65 | 5 | 1935 |
| Russell Henley | -2.53 | 6 | 1921 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.96 | 3 | 1974 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.37 | 8 | 1899 |
| Sungjae Im | -2.03 | 16 | 1857 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.45 | 55 | 1784 |
| Cameron Young | -0.67 | 118 | 1684 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.28 | 148 | 1635 |
| Corey Conners | -2.26 | 11 | 1885 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.60 | 47 | 1802 |
| Seamus Power | -1.14 | 75 | 1744 |
| Alex Noren | -1.97 | 21 | 1850 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.68 | 40 | 1812 |
| Max Homa | -0.80 | 104 | 1701 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.63 | 121 | 1679 |
| Adam Scott | -1.96 | 23 | 1848 |
| Tony Finau | -1.53 | 48 | 1793 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.47 | 53 | 1786 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.64 | 43 | 1808 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.46 | 54 | 1785 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.76 | 33 | 1822 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.24 | 64 | 1757 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.98 | 20 | 1850 |
| Harris English | -1.60 | 46 | 1803 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.03 | 83 | 1731 |
| Brian Harman | -1.72 | 35 | 1818 |
| Harry Hall | -1.35 | 58 | 1770 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.27 | 10 | 1888 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.02 | 172 | 1602 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.17 | 13 | 1874 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.90 | 92 | 1713 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.28 | 61 | 1762 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.96 | 88 | 1722 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.67 | 41 | 1811 |
| Jason Day | -1.94 | 24 | 1846 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.22 | 155 | 1628 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -0.63 | 122 | 1679 |
| Justin Rose | -1.66 | 42 | 1810 |
| Luke List | -0.42 | 141 | 1652 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.91 | 26 | 1841 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.09 | 207 | 1462 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.87 | 98 | 1710 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.58 | 125 | 1673 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.19 | 159 | 1624 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.70 | 38 | 1815 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.49 | 52 | 1788 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.59 | 123 | 1674 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -1.18 | 68 | 1749 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.05 | 15 | 1859 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.01 | 84 | 1727 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.10 | 79 | 1739 |
| Davis Riley | -0.40 | 143 | 1651 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.83 | 28 | 1832 |
| Aaron Rai | -2.01 | 17 | 1855 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.09 | 177 | 1588 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.36 | 57 | 1772 |
| Erik Barnes | 1.45 | 213 | 1416 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.93 | 90 | 1718 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.42 | 139 | 1653 |
| Martin Laird | -0.42 | 140 | 1652 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.26 | 63 | 1759 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.52 | 131 | 1665 |
| C.T. Pan | -0.72 | 111 | 1691 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.04 | 82 | 1731 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.18 | 69 | 1749 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.99 | 85 | 1725 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.38 | 146 | 1648 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.35 | 188 | 1555 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.22 | 154 | 1628 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.28 | 149 | 1635 |
| Rickie Fowler | -0.79 | 105 | 1700 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.72 | 36 | 1817 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.40 | 56 | 1777 |
| Danny Willett | -0.53 | 130 | 1666 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.13 | 78 | 1743 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.66 | 119 | 1684 |
| Beau Hossler | -0.88 | 96 | 1711 |
| Chan Kim | -0.84 | 102 | 1706 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.86 | 101 | 1708 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.79 | 30 | 1826 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.26 | 153 | 1632 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.14 | 179 | 1581 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.14 | 76 | 1743 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.65 | 120 | 1682 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.83 | 29 | 1831 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.27 | 210 | 1438 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.72 | 112 | 1691 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.76 | 108 | 1695 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.07 | 170 | 1609 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.82 | 200 | 1496 |
| David Lipsky | -0.13 | 163 | 1616 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.68 | 117 | 1686 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.25 | 183 | 1568 |
| Tom Kim | -1.34 | 59 | 1770 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.60 | 198 | 1524 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.69 | 115 | 1687 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.01 | 173 | 1598 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.79 | 31 | 1826 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.23 | 65 | 1755 |
| Matt Wallace | -0.76 | 107 | 1696 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.09 | 167 | 1611 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.62 | 45 | 1805 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.69 | 116 | 1686 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.52 | 132 | 1665 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.50 | 135 | 1662 |
| James Hahn | -0.10 | 166 | 1612 |
| Roger Sloan | 0.02 | 174 | 1597 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.78 | 32 | 1826 |
| Justin Suh | -0.39 | 145 | 1648 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.18 | 161 | 1623 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.72 | 34 | 1818 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.54 | 196 | 1531 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.86 | 100 | 1708 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.43 | 138 | 1654 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.54 | 129 | 1668 |
| Josh Teater | 0.85 | 202 | 1492 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.23 | 182 | 1571 |
| Bill Haas | 1.09 | 208 | 1462 |
| Victor Perez | -1.16 | 72 | 1746 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.79 | 199 | 1499 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.70 | 114 | 1688 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.51 | 134 | 1664 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.51 | 51 | 1790 |
| Will Gordon | -0.07 | 169 | 1609 |
| Ben Martin | -0.21 | 157 | 1626 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.46 | 193 | 1542 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.87 | 203 | 1490 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 0.21 | 180 | 1573 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.28 | 150 | 1635 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.45 | 137 | 1657 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.63 | 44 | 1806 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.11 | 165 | 1613 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.33 | 147 | 1642 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.56 | 126 | 1670 |
| Paul Barjon | 1.44 | 212 | 1417 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.27 | 152 | 1634 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.48 | 136 | 1661 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.66 | 214 | 1390 |
| Max McGreevy | -0.78 | 106 | 1698 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.94 | 204 | 1481 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.13 | 77 | 1743 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.21 | 156 | 1626 |
| Justin Lower | -0.90 | 94 | 1713 |
| Austin Cook | 0.82 | 201 | 1496 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.54 | 197 | 1531 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.41 | 190 | 1547 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.58 | 124 | 1673 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.21 | 66 | 1753 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.74 | 110 | 1693 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 0.26 | 184 | 1566 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.92 | 91 | 1717 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.98 | 86 | 1724 |
| John Pak | 0.05 | 175 | 1594 |
| Martin Trainer | 1.16 | 209 | 1453 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.69 | 39 | 1813 |
| David Skinns | 0.22 | 181 | 1572 |
| Zac Blair | -0.39 | 144 | 1650 |
| Ricky Castillo | -1.05 | 81 | 1732 |
| Danny Walker | -0.86 | 99 | 1709 |
| Michael Kim | -1.92 | 25 | 1842 |
| Grayson Murray | -0.88 | 97 | 1710 |
| Jorge Campillo | -0.54 | 127 | 1668 |
| Tim Widing | 0.33 | 186 | 1558 |
| Cody Gribble | 1.74 | 215 | 1379 |
| Parker Coody | -0.03 | 171 | 1603 |
| Carson Young | -0.54 | 128 | 1668 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.41 | 142 | 1652 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.83 | 103 | 1705 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.52 | 133 | 1665 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -0.94 | 89 | 1718 |
| Alex Noren | -1.97 | 21 | 1850 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.35 | 187 | 1556 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.30 | 60 | 1764 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.27 | 151 | 1634 |
| Vincent Norrman | 0.14 | 178 | 1582 |
| Philip Knowles | 0.94 | 205 | 1480 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.52 | 49 | 1793 |
| Eric Cole | -1.17 | 71 | 1747 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.15 | 73 | 1745 |
| Anders Albertson | 0.52 | 195 | 1533 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.51 | 50 | 1791 |
| Tyson Alexander | 0.43 | 191 | 1545 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -0.90 | 93 | 1713 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.15 | 162 | 1618 |
| Luke Clanton | -2.01 | 18 | 1854 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -1.27 | 62 | 1760 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.75 | 109 | 1695 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.19 | 160 | 1623 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.71 | 113 | 1689 |
| Jake Knapp | -0.89 | 95 | 1712 |
| Neal Shipley | -1.14 | 74 | 1744 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.70 | 37 | 1815 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.20 | 158 | 1625 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.05 | 80 | 1733 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.13 | 164 | 1616 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.09 | 176 | 1588 |
| Kevin Dougherty | 0.40 | 189 | 1548 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.20 | 67 | 1752 |
| Rico Hoey | -0.98 | 87 | 1723 |
| Hayden Springer | -1.17 | 70 | 1748 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.45 | 192 | 1542 |
| Ryan McCormick | 0.47 | 194 | 1540 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0.28 | 185 | 1564 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.08 | 168 | 1610 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.95 | 206 | 1479 |
| Raul Pereda | 1.39 | 211 | 1424 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.52 | 7 | 1919 |
