Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Harris English | -2.13 | 16 | 1869 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.86 | 47 | 1835 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.97 | 35 | 1850 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.78 | 59 | 1825 |
| Brian Harman | -1.95 | 32 | 1846 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.86 | 50 | 1835 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.88 | 38 | 1837 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -1.77 | 61 | 1823 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.76 | 52 | 1823 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.61 | 89 | 1803 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.70 | 60 | 1815 |
| Vince Whaley | -1.63 | 68 | 1806 |
| Pierceson Coody | -1.57 | 98 | 1798 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.67 | 58 | 1811 |
| Michael Brennan | -1.57 | 1,000 | 1798 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.56 | 73 | 1798 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.44 | 82 | 1781 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.62 | 63 | 1804 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.44 | 75 | 1782 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.61 | 62 | 1804 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.49 | 76 | 1789 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.46 | 90 | 1784 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.44 | 79 | 1782 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.42 | 103 | 1779 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.58 | 57 | 1799 |
| Seamus Power | -1.47 | 83 | 1785 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -1.59 | 54 | 1800 |
| Eric Cole | -1.45 | 80 | 1783 |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.48 | 78 | 1788 |
| Mac Meissner | -1.51 | 69 | 1791 |
| Sami Valimaki | -1.32 | 104 | 1767 |
| Jesper Svensson | -1.28 | 88 | 1762 |
| John Keefer | -1.26 | 1759 | |
| Sam Stevens | -1.46 | 77 | 1785 |
| Max McGreevy | -1.48 | 85 | 1787 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.41 | 93 | 1779 |
| Steven Fisk | -1.23 | 108 | 1755 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.27 | 109 | 1760 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.49 | 70 | 1788 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.34 | 94 | 1769 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.26 | 107 | 1760 |
| William Mouw | -1.06 | 139 | 1734 |
| Chandler Phillips | -1.21 | 106 | 1753 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | -1.21 | 190 | 1752 |
| Kris Ventura | -1.25 | 101 | 1758 |
| Chad Ramey | -1.12 | 121 | 1741 |
| Mark Hubbard | -1.24 | 97 | 1757 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.19 | 102 | 1751 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | -1.02 | 152 | 1729 |
| Adam Schenk | -1.08 | 114 | 1736 |
| Hayden Springer | -1.18 | 105 | 1749 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.85 | 126 | 1708 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.22 | 100 | 1754 |
| Kevin Roy | -1.20 | 95 | 1751 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.20 | 81 | 1752 |
| Carson Young | -1.05 | 134 | 1733 |
| Greyson Sigg | -1.20 | 110 | 1751 |
| Ben Silverman | -1.03 | 144 | 1730 |
| Jackson Suber | -1.00 | 127 | 1727 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.05 | 112 | 1733 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -0.99 | 142 | 1724 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.97 | 140 | 1722 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | -1.15 | 145 | 1746 |
| Webb Simpson | -1.03 | 138 | 1730 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -1.02 | 123 | 1729 |
| Ricky Castillo | -1.07 | 128 | 1735 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.02 | 124 | 1729 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.98 | 146 | 1723 |
| Trevor Cone | -0.94 | 117 | 1719 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -1.04 | 137 | 1731 |
| David Ford | -0.96 | 173 | 1721 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.96 | 135 | 1721 |
| Zac Blair | -1.13 | 115 | 1743 |
| Jeremy Paul | -0.91 | 1,000 | 1715 |
| Antoine Rozner | -0.71 | 166 | 1690 |
| Noah Goodwin | -0.98 | 133 | 1723 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.84 | 132 | 1706 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.87 | 149 | 1709 |
| Justin Lower | -0.83 | 148 | 1705 |
| David Lipsky | -0.90 | 129 | 1714 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.01 | 119 | 1727 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.89 | 143 | 1712 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | -0.70 | 154 | 1689 |
| Brandt Snedeker | -1.01 | 113 | 1727 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.89 | 122 | 1712 |
| Frankie Capan | -0.40 | 1,000 | 1650 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.96 | 170 | 1721 |
| David Skinns | -0.56 | 175 | 1670 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.84 | 125 | 1706 |
| Matthieu Pavon | -0.53 | 172 | 1667 |
| Karl Vilips | -0.45 | 178 | 1657 |
| Mason Howell | 0.57 | 1,000 | 1527 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.60 | 171 | 1676 |
| Chan Kim | -0.65 | 156 | 1682 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.67 | 160 | 1684 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.50 | 204 | 1662 |
| Brendan Valdes | -0.40 | 1,000 | 1650 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.51 | 168 | 1664 |
| Doc Redman | -0.70 | 1689 | |
| Quade Cummins | -0.47 | 192 | 1659 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.55 | 165 | 1670 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.54 | 176 | 1668 |
| Blades Brown | -0.45 | 1,000 | 1657 |
| Camilo Villegas | -0.23 | 200 | 1628 |
| Luke List | -0.37 | 187 | 1646 |
| Davis Riley | -0.44 | 158 | 1656 |
| Harry Higgs | -0.28 | 197 | 1635 |
| Will Gordon | -0.32 | 198 | 1639 |
| Martin Laird | -0.50 | 151 | 1663 |
| Joe Highsmith | -0.37 | 186 | 1647 |
| Braden Thornberry | -0.11 | 1,000 | 1614 |
| Jonathan Byrd | -0.78 | 1698 | |
| Ben Martin | -0.32 | 169 | 1640 |
| Danny Walker | -0.27 | 180 | 1633 |
| Matthew NeSmith | -0.49 | 212 | 1662 |
| Mason Andersen | -0.05 | 1,000 | 1605 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.44 | 181 | 1655 |
| John Pak | -0.60 | 167 | 1675 |
| Paul Peterson | -0.57 | 162 | 1671 |
| Kevin Kisner | -0.01 | 218 | 1601 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.05 | 214 | 1593 |
| Scott Piercy | 0.22 | 194 | 1571 |
| Chez Reavie | -0.02 | 207 | 1603 |
| Kevin Velo | -0.07 | 205 | 1609 |
| Troy Merritt | -0.15 | 183 | 1619 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.34 | 219 | 1556 |
| Kyle Westmoreland | 0.54 | 1531 | |
| Tim Widing | 0.09 | 196 | 1588 |
| Chesson Hadley | 0.09 | 203 | 1588 |
| Gordon Sargent | 0.25 | 209 | 1567 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.12 | 189 | 1615 |
| Matthew Riedel | 0.31 | 1,000 | 1561 |
| Peter Knade | 0.73 | 1,000 | 1506 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.38 | 220 | 1551 |
| Will Chandler | 0.60 | 1,000 | 1523 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 0.53 | 1533 | |
| Robert Streb | 1.00 | 1473 | |
| Taylor Dickson | 0.52 | 1,000 | 1533 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.16 | 222 | 1579 |
| George McNeill | 1.24 | 1442 | |
| Nick Watney | 0.78 | 1501 | |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 0.86 | 230 | 1490 |
| Kyle Cottam | 1.22 | 1,000 | 1445 |
| Austin Cook | 0.18 | 1576 | |
| Kaito Onishi | 0.80 | 1,000 | 1498 |
| Anders Albertson | 0.63 | 221 | 1519 |
| Jason Dufner | 0.76 | 1503 | |
| James Hahn | 0.66 | 199 | 1517 |
| Vince Covello | 1.16 | 231 | 1453 |
| Ben Polland | 1.37 | 1,000 | 1425 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.40 | 232 | 1423 |
| Matt Sanders | 3.22 | 1,000 | 1191 |
| Davis Love III | 3.25 | 1187 | |
| Matt Atkins | 0.49 | 1,000 | 1538 |
| Ryan Blaum | 0.71 | 1510 | |
| Tommy Gainey | 3.21 | 1193 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Justin Thomas | -2.45 | 20 | 1909 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.46 | 17 | 1912 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.87 | 52 | 1836 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.63 | 12 | 1933 |
| Rory McIlroy | -3.26 | 3 | 2013 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -4.81 | 1 | 2209 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.23 | 27 | 1882 |
| Sam Burns | -2.78 | 8 | 1952 |
| Xander Schauffele | -3.22 | 4 | 2007 |
| Russell Henley | -3.07 | 5 | 1988 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.43 | 23 | 1908 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.43 | 22 | 1908 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.66 | 67 | 1810 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -2.67 | 11 | 1937 |
| Cameron Young | -2.46 | 19 | 1911 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -1.03 | 123 | 1730 |
| Corey Conners | -2.54 | 15 | 1921 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.91 | 48 | 1841 |
| Seamus Power | -1.45 | 83 | 1783 |
| Alex Noren | -2.24 | 25 | 1883 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.69 | 64 | 1813 |
| Max Homa | -1.63 | 71 | 1806 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.89 | 138 | 1712 |
| Adam Scott | -2.12 | 36 | 1867 |
| Tony Finau | -1.44 | 87 | 1782 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.03 | 124 | 1730 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.72 | 62 | 1818 |
| Jordan Spieth | -2.16 | 31 | 1873 |
| Keegan Bradley | -2.45 | 21 | 1909 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.46 | 82 | 1784 |
| Maverick McNealy | -2.46 | 18 | 1912 |
| Harris English | -2.51 | 16 | 1918 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.75 | 60 | 1821 |
| Brian Harman | -2.15 | 32 | 1872 |
| Harry Hall | -2.55 | 14 | 1923 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -3.33 | 2 | 2022 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.56 | 160 | 1670 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.75 | 10 | 1948 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.85 | 140 | 1707 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -2.17 | 30 | 1874 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.36 | 96 | 1772 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.55 | 76 | 1796 |
| Jason Day | -2.28 | 24 | 1888 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.27 | 189 | 1633 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -1.44 | 86 | 1782 |
| Justin Rose | -2.06 | 40 | 1861 |
| Luke List | -0.30 | 187 | 1637 |
| Denny McCarthy | -2.09 | 38 | 1865 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.34 | 218 | 1557 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.83 | 143 | 1704 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.54 | 163 | 1668 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.40 | 179 | 1650 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -2.19 | 29 | 1877 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.41 | 92 | 1778 |
| Mark Hubbard | -1.36 | 97 | 1771 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -0.84 | 142 | 1706 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.21 | 28 | 1880 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.60 | 73 | 1802 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.40 | 93 | 1777 |
| Davis Riley | -0.56 | 158 | 1670 |
| Si Woo Kim | -2.13 | 35 | 1870 |
| Aaron Rai | -2.59 | 13 | 1927 |
| Troy Merritt | -0.34 | 183 | 1643 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.27 | 103 | 1760 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.55 | 161 | 1669 |
| Lanto Griffin | -1.02 | 125 | 1729 |
| Martin Laird | -0.69 | 151 | 1687 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.37 | 94 | 1774 |
| C.T. Pan | -1.13 | 111 | 1743 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.43 | 89 | 1781 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.12 | 112 | 1742 |
| Zach Johnson | -1.04 | 122 | 1731 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.61 | 155 | 1677 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.35 | 219 | 1555 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.50 | 170 | 1663 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.53 | 165 | 1667 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 0.18 | 212 | 1577 |
| Rickie Fowler | -2.07 | 39 | 1861 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.89 | 51 | 1839 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.82 | 55 | 1830 |
| Danny Willett | -0.54 | 164 | 1668 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.47 | 79 | 1786 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.92 | 135 | 1716 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.15 | 109 | 1745 |
| Chan Kim | -0.60 | 156 | 1676 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.82 | 146 | 1703 |
| J.J. Spaun | -2.79 | 7 | 1952 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.50 | 171 | 1663 |
| Francesco Molinari | -0.80 | 147 | 1701 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.07 | 119 | 1735 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -1.68 | 66 | 1813 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -2.14 | 34 | 1871 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.45 | 232 | 1416 |
| Greyson Sigg | -1.15 | 110 | 1745 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.73 | 150 | 1692 |
| Tyler Duncan | 0.03 | 204 | 1595 |
| Harry Higgs | -0.11 | 197 | 1613 |
| David Lipsky | -0.99 | 129 | 1725 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.07 | 207 | 1591 |
| Tom Kim | -1.42 | 91 | 1779 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.12 | 210 | 1585 |
| Vince Whaley | -1.65 | 68 | 1808 |
| Brandt Snedeker | -1.12 | 113 | 1741 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.96 | 44 | 1848 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.27 | 102 | 1760 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.79 | 57 | 1827 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.51 | 168 | 1664 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.57 | 75 | 1798 |
| Garrick Higgo | -2.15 | 33 | 1872 |
| Nate Lashley | -1.06 | 120 | 1733 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.85 | 141 | 1707 |
| James Hahn | -0.07 | 199 | 1609 |
| Roger Sloan | -0.28 | 188 | 1635 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.89 | 50 | 1839 |
| Justin Suh | -0.66 | 153 | 1683 |
| Cameron Champ | -1.02 | 126 | 1728 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.78 | 58 | 1825 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.44 | 176 | 1655 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.14 | 194 | 1618 |
| Camilo Villegas | -0.07 | 200 | 1608 |
| Victor Perez | -1.68 | 65 | 1813 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.26 | 214 | 1567 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.95 | 132 | 1719 |
| Adam Schenk | -1.11 | 114 | 1740 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.46 | 81 | 1785 |
| Will Gordon | -0.09 | 198 | 1611 |
| Ben Martin | -0.50 | 169 | 1663 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.53 | 224 | 1533 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | -1.96 | 45 | 1847 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.32 | 217 | 1559 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.77 | 149 | 1698 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.15 | 192 | 1619 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.63 | 70 | 1806 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -1.84 | 54 | 1833 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.37 | 181 | 1647 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.98 | 130 | 1723 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.56 | 159 | 1670 |
| Chad Ramey | -1.05 | 121 | 1732 |
| Max McGreevy | -1.45 | 85 | 1783 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.61 | 225 | 1522 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -2.10 | 37 | 1865 |
| Chesson Hadley | 0.01 | 203 | 1598 |
| Justin Lower | -0.79 | 148 | 1700 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.44 | 220 | 1544 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.28 | 216 | 1564 |
| Matti Schmid | -1.31 | 99 | 1766 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.90 | 49 | 1840 |
| Sami Valimaki | -1.23 | 104 | 1756 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | -0.64 | 154 | 1680 |
| Ryan Fox | -1.60 | 72 | 1802 |
| John Pak | -0.52 | 167 | 1665 |
| Kris Ventura | -1.28 | 101 | 1761 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.45 | 84 | 1783 |
| David Skinns | -0.45 | 175 | 1657 |
| Zac Blair | -1.09 | 115 | 1738 |
| Paul Waring | -0.19 | 191 | 1623 |
| Ricky Castillo | -1.00 | 128 | 1726 |
| Danny Walker | -0.39 | 180 | 1649 |
| Michael Kim | -1.81 | 56 | 1829 |
| Tim Widing | -0.13 | 196 | 1616 |
| Carson Young | -0.94 | 134 | 1718 |
| Vince Covello | 0.83 | 231 | 1495 |
| Chris Gotterup | -2.04 | 43 | 1857 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -1.73 | 61 | 1819 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.82 | 144 | 1704 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.94 | 47 | 1845 |
| Alex Noren | -2.24 | 25 | 1883 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.28 | 215 | 1564 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.52 | 77 | 1793 |
| Kevin Roy | -1.37 | 95 | 1773 |
| Vincent Norrman | -0.13 | 195 | 1616 |
| Philip Knowles | 0.69 | 227 | 1512 |
| Ben Griffin | -2.99 | 6 | 1979 |
| Trevor Cone | -1.08 | 117 | 1736 |
| Eric Cole | -1.47 | 80 | 1785 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.72 | 63 | 1818 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.47 | 222 | 1539 |
| Anders Albertson | 0.44 | 221 | 1544 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.42 | 90 | 1780 |
| Tyson Alexander | -0.03 | 201 | 1603 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.85 | 53 | 1834 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.48 | 174 | 1660 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.18 | 107 | 1749 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -0.89 | 137 | 1713 |
| Chandler Phillips | -1.19 | 106 | 1751 |
| Jackson Koivun | -1.96 | 46 | 1847 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.34 | 182 | 1643 |
| Mac Meissner | -1.64 | 69 | 1807 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.59 | 74 | 1801 |
| Max Greyserman | -2.06 | 41 | 1860 |
| Pierceson Coody | -1.33 | 98 | 1768 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.28 | 100 | 1762 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.44 | 177 | 1655 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | -0.23 | 190 | 1628 |
| Joe Highsmith | -0.30 | 186 | 1638 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.77 | 59 | 1823 |
| Hayden Springer | -1.21 | 105 | 1752 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.18 | 211 | 1577 |
| Ryan McCormick | -0.14 | 193 | 1618 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.33 | 184 | 1642 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.74 | 228 | 1506 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.77 | 9 | 1951 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | -0.68 | 152 | 1686 |
| Matthieu Pavon | -0.50 | 172 | 1663 |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.47 | 78 | 1786 |
| Matthew McCarty | -2.05 | 42 | 1859 |
| Jesper Svensson | -1.44 | 88 | 1782 |
| William Mouw | -0.86 | 139 | 1708 |
| Thriston Lawrence | -0.97 | 131 | 1723 |
| Antoine Rozner | -0.53 | 166 | 1667 |
| Brian Campbell | -0.57 | 157 | 1672 |
| Steven Fisk | -1.17 | 108 | 1747 |
| Matteo Manassero | -0.90 | 136 | 1714 |
| Jackson Suber | -1.00 | 127 | 1726 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | -0.82 | 145 | 1703 |
| David Ford | -0.49 | 173 | 1661 |
| Noah Goodwin | -0.94 | 133 | 1719 |
| Karl Vilips | -0.40 | 178 | 1651 |
| Paul Peterson | -0.55 | 162 | 1669 |
| Gordon Sargent | 0.11 | 209 | 1585 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 0.81 | 230 | 1497 |
| Kevin Velo | 0.06 | 205 | 1592 |
