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2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Golf DFS Fades & Pivots: Can Popular Joel Dahmen Live Up to Expectations?

Geoff Ulrich



DFS Golf Fades & Pivots Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Joel Dahmen Too Popular?

The PGA Tour heads back to the West Coast this week for what is likely to be another high-variance event in the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Pebble Beach often has a lot of surprise names on the leaderboard every season, and the three-course rotation of Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula has produced some upset winners in recent seasons. Given the seaside venue, weather can change at Pebble Beach quickly and wave advantages tend to happen every now and then, making it worthwhile to monitor the forecast as the week progresses.

Below are some of the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert PGA DFS projections and rankings can help identify the best picks for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

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PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | Pebble Beach Pro-Am

As a venue, Pebble Beach plays to the strengths of those who have creative short games and can catch fire with shorts irons. It is not a hard course (unless it is being set up for the U.S. Open), but it is a tricky one that requires some knowledge. The technical nature of the venue means there are lots of smaller doglegs and holes that are built into the natural environment, which makes hitting driver off the tee tough. Course history tends to play a major factor this week as well. Winners since 2009 have all had at least one top-20 at Pebble Beach on their record before breaking through, so this is the week to weigh course history more heavily than usual.

It’s important to note for Showdown golf and one-day tournaments that Monterrey Peninsula plays as the easiest venue, with Pebble Beach usually being the second hardest and Spyglass Hill the toughest. Loading up on Monterrey players each day in showdown formats will be imperative to success in most likelihood.

Pebble Beach Golf Links Stats and Info

  • The field driving averages at Pebble Beach always come in well under the PGA Tour by about 10 to 12 yards. The technical track takes the driver out of the hands on many holes and emphasizes power.
  • Two of the last six winners here have lost strokes off the tee, but each of the past six winners gained 2.5 or more strokes on approach through their two rounds on Pebble Beach in the year of their win. The most popular category for approaches is generally between 100 and 125 yards.
  • Driving accuracy numbers are typically quite high here (players club down a lot), but rates of greens in regulation are not. The greens at Pebble Beach are some of the smallest on the PGA, and players typically hit 3% to 5% fewer greens than usual.
  • Around-the-green play is important and gets emphasized more with poor weather.

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Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Joel Dahmen

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 12.2% | FanDuel: 13.1%

Dahmen has a solid course history at Pebble Beach and was sixth at this event last season. There are a couple of things working against him at this year’s event, however, which makes him a solid fade candidate. While almost everyone else in the field will have played multiple events in 2023 at this point, Dahmen will be making his first competitive start of the season at Pebble Beach. It’s not always the case that golfers come out of the gates rusty, but he’ll certainly be behind most of the field in terms of competitive reps. Dahmen’s great run over the fall and his superb course history also mean his ownership this week in DFS won’t be insignificant. He’s projected to be well over 10% owned on DraftKings, and it wouldn’t be shocking if his real ownership Thursday morning came in much higher.

Dahmen has decent enough PGA DFS projections this week on Stokastic, but it’s also worth noting that there are six players from the $9,000 range ranked in front of him in the site model. With solid pivots both below and above him, Dahmen’s higher ownership is fadable until his form becomes clearer.

High-End Pivot: Thomas Detry

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 7.6% | FanDuel: 10.2%

Detry is a player who would likely be getting more ownership and higher sentiment this week if this event were not taking place at Pebble Beach. This will be his first start at this event, and with course history and experience getting weighed heavier this week by the field, his PGA DFS ownership projections are around 7% to 8% in larger-field tournaments. That’s a solid ownership level for a player who has made nine cuts in a row and finished top 15 in five of those nine starts. Detry doesn’t just have lower ownership than Dahmen (and may even be rostered in 50% fewer lineups than Dahmen), but he also has a stronger scoring projection this week and ranks above Dahmen in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections. As a pivot play, Detry makes a ton of sense if looking to fade the chalky Dahmen.

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Mid-Range Fade: Will Gordon

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 23.7% | FanDuel: 12.4%

There is a weaker field this week, so there will be plenty of lower-ranked names in this field that come in with high ownership this week. Gordon is one of those names, as he is currently projecting for over 20% ownership on DraftKings and looks like he could even push towards the 25% range given his cheaper salary. Gordon’s a solid player, but the fact he’s coming off two missed cuts and has seen his ball striking and around-the-green game dip considerably of late is concerning. Gordon maintains strong PGA DFS projections, but there are multiple players right at his salary level on DraftKings with very similar projections — and they’ll all have lower PGA DFS ownership projections. He sets up as another high-rostered player to fade this week.

Mid-Range Pivot: Kurt Kitayama

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 15.8% | FanDuel: 7.8%

Much like Gordon, Kitayama is coming into this week off a couple of poor starts. Putting issues have plagued Kitayama at the start 2023, but it’s not something to be overly concerned about. He has always been a streaky player, and two of his three runner-up finishes last season came off of missed cuts. He also tends to have big swings with his putter, and while that club has been poor for him of late, it’s worth noting that he’s gained 3.5 strokes or more putting in four of his last 20 starts. Given he’s ranked right below Gordon in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections but is also coming in with about half the ownership, taking a shot on Kitayama to bounce back makes sense. He was 18th at this event in 2020, and as a West Coast player, he has tons of experience playing on this side of the country.

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Mid-Range Fade: Nate Lashley

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 11.1% | FanDuel: 7.6%

Lashley is one of the more popular plays under $7,500 this week on DraftKings, projecting for over 10% ownership for the week. He does make sense from a course fit perspective, but at the same time, he has missed the cut in three of his last four starts. It would be a different story for Lashley — who did finish fifth at this event in 2021 — if he were coming in under 10% owned, but that’s not the case, as DFS players clearly view him as an underdog worth backing. Considering the weaker field, it simply doesn’t make sense to eat high ownership on inconsistent players like Lashley. Using Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and PGA DFS ownership projections can help find an appropriate pivot in what is going to be a very volatile and high-variance range.

Mid-Range Pivot: Callum Tarren

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 6.4%| FanDuel: 4.4%

Tarren has shown solid upside at various stops already in his young career. He’s already posted four top-10 finishes on the PGA in less than a year, and each one of those higher finishes came on shorter more technical courses that compare well to Pebble Beach. His most recent high finish was at the Seaside venue, which hosts the RSM Classic, a shorter, more open venue that is also situated right off the ocean. Tarren ranks ahead of Lashley this week in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and is coming off a solid 25th-place finish at the Farmers. He’s projected to come in around 5% to 8% owned and makes for a solid pivot option in the low-$7,000 range on DraftKings.

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