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The Approach: PGA DFS Picks for the 3M Open on DraftKings & FanDuel

Geoff Ulrich



One week after the last major championship of the season, the PGA Tour heads back to Minneapolis for the fourth running of the 3M Open. This event is hosted by TPC Twin Cities, an Arnold Palmer venue that was renovated recently so it could handle hosting duties for this event. Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ have been the three winners of this event since its inception back in 2019, and while Wolff and Champ are known for their power off the tee, Thompson is almost the complete opposite in style. Two things the three of them have in common, though, from the weeks of their wins are elite iron play and hot putting. Wolff blunted the course, gaining over 12 strokes ball striking for the week, while Thompson gained over seven strokes apiece on approach and on the greens. Champ also put on a flat stick clinic, gaining over eight strokes putting last year on his way to the win.

With that kind of statistical grouping in mind, let’s dive into the best 3M Open DFS golf picks this week and find some of the best PGA DFS value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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2022 3M Open DFS Golf Picks & Projections

TPC Twin Cities has some of the easiest-to-hit fairways on tour and is only made difficult by the large number of water hazards in play, which come into play on 15 of the 18 holes. As a par 71 that plays around 7,400 yards, the venue has a nice variety of holes but is made simpler by easy around-the-green structures and a flat parkland setting where even decent drives will ensure a good lie. With good weather in the forecast, look to target good iron players and those who can get hot enough with the flat stick to challenge 20 under par again.

With such a wide-open event on tap, the goal is to find the top projections and top daily fantasy golf picks this week for DraftKings and FanDuel contests with the help of the Stokastic projections. Below we’ll target some of the best DFS golf picks for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy golf contests.

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TPC Twins Cities Stats and Info

  • Par 71, 7,431 yards; has seen the winner here reach 19 and 21 under par in two of the three years it’s been on tour; contains three par 5’s which are the three easiest scoring holes on the course as well.
  • Driver-heavy course that also has easy-to-hit fairways. Hitting fairways is easy for the entire field, though, so players must gain on approaches to really gain on the field at TPC Twin Cities.
  • In 2020, the top 11 finishers all gained strokes on approach for the week, while eight of the top 10 finishers gained three strokes or more with their irons.
  • Around-the-green play is likely the one area to drop off this week in terms of strokes gained. Just being neutral or slightly above average around the green has been good enough for each of the winners at TPC Twin Cities.

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3M Open 2022 DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Projections

Maverick McNealy

Total Points Projection: 75.2 | Top 6 percentage: 18.5%

The Stokastic projections this week for Maverick McNealy has him trending strong. He competed well last week at the Barracuda, and he comes in with the fourth-highest points projection and is one of only four golfers with a top-six percentage above 18%. It’s fine to be wary of trusting any player who is pushing 33% owned on the Stokastic ownership projections on DraftKings this week, but McNealy has tended to excel in weaker fields on easier courses.

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He posted top-10s at the birdie fests that were the John Deere Classic and Barracuda this year already, and he likely should have had the win last fall at the easier setup out on Silverado for the Fortinet Championship. McNealy’s 16th place at the 3M Open last season also would have been a whole lot better if he had just putted to his career average (he lost 1.6 strokes putting on the greens at this event last season), as his ball striking around TPC Twin Cities was excellent in 2021. If he can replicate that again, a big week is ahead and he’s trending as one of the strongest blends of upside and value on Stokastic this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 33.4%

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The Stats:

  • Sixteenth or better in each of his last three starts; 16th place last year was highlighted by him gaining 4.2 strokes ball striking.
  • Fifth in birdie-or-better percentage and second in eagles gained over the last 50 rounds.

Ben Rasa gives his 2022 3M Open picks and predictions and goes over some of the best betting odds for the 3M Open this week.

Cameron Tringale

Total Points Projection: 72.0 | Top 6 percentage: 15.5%

The Stokastic projections like the value approach this week, as many of the players in the $8,000 to $9,000 range on DraftKings are trending well and just below the elite players in the $10,000-and-above range. One name that sticks out in the Stokastic projections is Cameron Tringale, who was looking like a potential winner in Scotland after two rounds, before blowing up over the weekend. Tringale’s hot start in Scotland is indicative of a player whose putter and iron play can carry him to pretty solid highs when that portion of his game is clicking.

He posted a third-place finish at this event in 2020 and recorded his best-ever finish in a major last month, with a 14th placing at the U.S. Open. He’s ninth in the Stokastic projections this week and has the highest points projection of anyone under $9,000 on DraftKings. While he’ll be at somewhat of a power disadvantage to some of the field, he also very much fits the Michael Thompson (winner in Minnesota in 2020) mold of someone who can make up for off-tee shortcomings with great iron play and putting. He’ll be popular but possesses just as much upside as the main pick in McNealy and will come with less ownership.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20.4% |

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The Stats:

  • Four finishes of seventh or better on the PGA Tour since last fall.
  • Has gained strokes on approach and off the tee at TPC Twin Cities in each of his three starts at this event; has gained 2.4 strokes or more putting at this event in his last two starts.

Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Matthias Schwab ($7,200)

Total Points Projection: 60.3 | Top 6 percentage: 6.39%

Everyone and their mother loved Matthias Schwab last week at the Barracuda, where he promptly missed the cut by a country mile. The Austrian is way bigger in odds this week and is now coming in with under 5% ownership projections. He’d been playing better prior to last week, with four made cuts in five starts and a top-20 at the John Deere, so this seems like a massive overreaction. Schwab looks like solid value at $7,200, as he’d been making progress on his ball striking, gaining 1.5 strokes or more on approach in his two starts before the Barracuda.

Ultimately the goal is to find players who can get hot with approaches and the putter, and Schwab has put up solid results at other approach-based venues like PGA National, making this a potentially great spot for a breakout. He gained 8.2 strokes on approach alone at this event in 2021 and finished 32nd. He’s improved immensely on the greens since then, so taking a flier with him at $7,200 on DraftKings seems well warranted.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 2.5%

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Top 3 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Chesson Hadley ($7,300)

Hadley is in 143rd in the FedEx Cup standings and will be fighting for his tour card the next couple of weeks. He’s been playing better and shown some high-end approach play in three of his last four starts. He has corollary results at venues like TPC Scottsdale and has done his best work in softer fields with softer conditions.

Callum Tarren ($7,000)

Tarren has put together a nice little run of late as he tries to grab a tour card for next season. A sixth place at the John Deere was headlined by some great iron play, and that’s an event where past winners like Cameron Champ found some confidence prior to winning. He shouldn’t bring in more than 5% to 6% ownership and has found these weaker fields fruitful for high finishes.

Brandon Hagy ($6,800)

It makes sense to go back to the well with a GPP dart on Hagy this week at under $7,000. The big hitter fits the mold of Matthew Wolff and Champ, in terms of what he can do off the tee, and he had started to show some consistency with his approaches prior to missing the cut last week. Hagy needs a big week for FedEx Cup purposes and makes for a good bounce-back candidate.

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FanDuel PGA DFS rankings will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. Looking for more PGA DFS picks for this week and PGA DFS advice? The Yahoo! DFS PGA projections for today, the DFS PGA showdown projections for today and the DFS PGA ownership projections for this week are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world.

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