The Winning Element: PGA DFS Optimizer Picks & Projections for 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

All of the PGA DFS content and fantasy golf picks this week are geared toward providing information that will help with DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy golf, PGA odds and betting predictions in the best way possible. With the help of the Awesemo expert , this is the last of the week-long written PGA fantasy picks material for DraftKings and FanDuel at the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

PGA DFS Golf Picks: 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational

This column will include 6 to 12 players as part of the core, which earns my highest allocation on DFS and is matched with bets across the board. All three of my favorite trio of Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay are taking the week off. Only Spieth has played here at the Arnold Palmer in the last few years, even adding a hole in one on the difficult par-3 second. It continued his comeback to elite golf, which was capped a few weeks later with a win at the Valero Texas Open.

PGA Weather Forecast

There is a great weather pattern in Central Florida. In the morning it has been a shade cool with mid- to upper 50s, but those are rising quickly, getting to 80 and above in the afternoon. Once the sun comes through, the wind also picks up. Wind plus sun equals a dry course, so expect to see the trend of morning scores outperforming the afternoon ones all week.

PGA DFS Slate Preview

Total expected player pool: 69

Expected number of lineups created: 450

Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Golf Picks & Projections

These golfers will have anywhere between 20% and 50% allocation.

Rory McIlroy ($11,100 DraftKings/$11,900 FanDuel)

One of the things that is synonymous with Tiger Woods is his ability to dominate specific golf courses and rack up multiple wins at the same event. His relationship with Bay Hill is one of those, with nine wins in his career. So what does this have to do with McIlroy? Well, McIlroy has talked about just that, and this course is one of his best. He has come in the top 10 five straight years, including a win in 2018, and he has been a fixture on the first page of the leaderboard in each of those. Match that up with consistent form over the last 12 weeks — three starts and three top-12s — and the trend line seems to be on the verge of another victory. Most McIlroy fans are hoping for a win in about a month at Augusta, but there is nothing wrong with two wins in a one-month span.

Will Zalatoris ($9,400 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel)

One of the most talked-about golfers this week, Zalatoris is on the verge of his first PGA Tour win, but his putting inside five feet could be the worst on tour. He never looks comfortable when putting from that distance, but ultimately he does not lose that many strokes putting because his longer putting is very good. Zalatoris came in 10th here last year in his tournament debut, and he has two top-10s in his three starts over the last 12 weeks. If going truly balanced, he is a solid option as a first golfer in the lineup given his most recent ceiling performances.

Keith Mitchell ($8,100 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel/$25 Yahoo)

Mitchell dug himself a hole early by getting off to a sluggish start in the opening rounds last week. But as he has done so well this year, he righted the ship, played well over the weekend and earned another solid finish at the Honda Classic with a tie for ninth. He has been able to take his success at the Honda and carry it over to the Arnold Palmer a couple of times, finishing in the top six in two of three starts and making the cut in all three. He also gets a $1,000 price decrease and drops a few percentage points in his PGA DFS ownership projection this week given the stronger field.

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Paul Casey ($8,300 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel)

In a similar fashion to Zalatoris, Casey’s struggles with the flat stick have cost him many wins over the years. But as seen by back-to-back Valspar wins a few years ago, putting on these Florida Bermuda surfaces has been some of his best performances. He has a few top-10s here as well, including last year, which would be ideal given his salary on DraftKings. He is also working on four straight top-25s over the last 12 weeks, adding to the reasons to play him at these prices this week.

Corey Conners ($7,600 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel)

The West Coast swing could not have gone worse for Conners, as the typically consistent performer has missed three cuts in his last five starts, with no top-10s. So why play him? Well, the answer is simple: He has his second-lowest price of the year, with by far the lowest ownership, and at a course where he has played well before. As long as his irons are not “broken” — they have been performing poorly over lately — he should be able to bounce back with easier greens and more fairways hit than the field.

Fantasy Golf Picks: $7,500 or less

With such a strong field, there is no reason to give any of these golfers a full 20% allocation. However, these are the golfers that will have the most allocation in my fantasy golf lineups.

Erik van Rooyen ($7,400 DraftKings/$9000 FanDuel)

While the high ownership is warranted, Cameron Young is generating all the attention in this price range — rightfully so, but it is creating bubbles for the golfers around him, like van Rooyen. Van Rooyen made the cut in grand fashion last year and then had a good Saturday before completely falling apart on Sunday, but he has certainly transformed his game since then, becoming a PGA Tour winner. His recent form is also very solid, making all five cuts and finishing in the top 40 in all of them. He also adds in a top-five and a few other top-20s, showing upside along with that consistency. With low ownership expected, it will not be hard to get leverage on the field with him this week.

Keegan Bradley ($7,300/ $9,300)

A major champion and multiple-time PGA Tour winner, Bradley has been incredibly successful over his career. But he is definitely on the shortlist of golfers that probably should have about five more wins in his career if they only knew how to putt. Bradley’s putting deficiency is negated here with the easy greens, and he shows that by making all 10 cuts since 2012, finishing top 10 three times and recording a bunch of other solid finishes. He has also made the cut in all four starts over the last 12 weeks and should improve upon his best finish in that time with something better than a tie for 12th this week.

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PGA DFS Chalk Zone (Projected for 10%+ Ownership)

E = Equal-Weight to projected ownership

U = Underweight to projected ownership

O = Overweight to projected ownership

1. Jon Rahm (E to U)
2. Viktor Hovland (E)
3. Scottie Scheffler (E)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (E to O)
5. Sungjae Im (E)
6. Tyrrell Hatton (E)
7. Marc Leishman (U)
8. Matthew Fitzpatrick (E to U)
9. Adam Scott (U)
10. Billy Horschel (U)
11. Russell Henley (E to U)
12. Jason Kokrak (E)
13. Sergio Garcia (E to U)
14. Cameron Tringale (E to U)
15. Maverick McNealy (E to U)
16. Gary Woodland (E)
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (E)

Fringe PGA DFS Picks (12-17% of Lineups)

1. Sam Burns
2. Max Homa
3. Talor Gooch
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Chris Kirk
6. Sahith Theegala
7. Garrick Higgo
8. Beau Hossler
9. Aaron Wise

Alternates (6-11% of Lineups)

1. Seamus Power
2. Patrick Reed
3. Matthew Wolff
4. Si Woo Kim
5. Ian Poulter
6. Lee Westwood
7. Denny McCarthy
8. Thomas Pieters
9. K.H. Lee
10. Rickie Fowler
11. Carlos Ortiz
12. Adam Svensson
13. Patton Kizzire
14. Aaron Rai
15. Cameron Davis
16. Lee Hodges
17. Sam Ryder
18. Taylor Moore

Holes in One (1-5% of Lineups)

1. Patrick Rodgers
2. Doug Ghim
3. Matt Wallace
4. Cameron Champ
5. Taylor Pendrith
6. Branden Grace
7. Danny Willett
8. Takumi Kanaya
9. Nicolai Hojgaard
10. Dylan Frittelli
11. Kevin Streelman
12. Lucas Herbert
13. Trey Mullinax

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