PGA DFS Picks & Leverage Plays: Trey Mullinax Belongs at Pebble Beach

The PGA Tour will be hosting the Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week, which is a tournament that features three courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (par 72, 7,051 yards, poa greens), Spyglass Hill (par 72, 7,041 yards, poa greens) and the Monterey Peninsula Shore Course (par 71, 6,957 yards, poa greens). Every player in this field will play a round on all of these courses, and then there will be a top 60 and ties cut, with advancing golfers returning to Pebble Beach for the final round. Below are some of the top PGA DFS picks for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, utilizing Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage plays for GPPs.

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PGA DFS Picks & Optimizer Plays: Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The three courses these players will face this week are all short par 72s that feature small, hard to hit poa greens, putting a heavy emphasis on iron play. Tom Hoge ranked fourth in strokes gained on approach during his win at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, making him the third champion of this event over the last four years to rank top 6 in the metric. Plus, two of the past three victors here ranked top 3 in strokes gained putting during their wins. Given all three of the venues used for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am feature poa greens, prioritizing golfers with positive poa splits makes sense.

Leverage scores are a product of comparing a player’s ownership versus their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament.

Taylor Moore

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 1st, FanDuel: 3rd

Moore is one of the best GPP plays on the board this week, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Moore finished 16th in his Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut last year and is coming off an 11th-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. At Torrey Pines, he gained strokes in every major category and ranked eighth in birdies.

Moore has now carded four top-12 finishes in his last 12 starts, and if he can carry this outstanding form over to Pebble Beach, Moore has the potential to contend for a win in this weak field.

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Trey Mullinax

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 2nd, FanDuel: 4th

Mullinax is a spotless 4-for-4 in made cuts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, with three of these finishes being top-25s. He now returns to this multiple course event on the heels of a 31st at the Farmers Insurance Open, in which he gained strokes with his irons and putter. Mullinax has now made nine of his past 11 cuts, including seven finishes of 31st or better, and he ranks 15th in the field in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds.

Mullinax is a terrific combination of safety and upside this week and is a mouthwatering option for GPPs, with Stokastic forecasting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Jimmy Walker

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 9th, FanDuel: 13th

Walker is a great, cheap flier for GPPs. He has a stellar resume at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, making 10 of 15 cuts and finishing top 25 seven times, most notably with a win in 2014. In addition to the incredible history at this tournament, Walker’s game is trending in the right direction after finishing 13th at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He gained 3.6 strokes putting during this finish, which is the most strokes Walker has produced with his flat stick in nearly two years.

Walker will now look to remain hot with his putter on the poa greens of Pebble Beach this week, which notably has been his top putting surface of choice statistically throughout his career. Walker should be able to make the cut this weekend and is expected to come with essentially no ownership on either DraftKings or FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections.

Lanto Griffin

Stokastic PGA Optimizer Leverage Scores Ranks: DraftKings: 3rd, FanDuel: 2nd

Griffin is a true poa specialist. He has made 14 of 17 cuts at events with poa greens for his career, including a pair of top-20 finishes at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Griffin ranks 10th in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds at poa venues.

Griffin brings top-20 upside at an affordable cost this week and is a tremendous contrarian option, with Stokastic projecting him for minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.