All of my Fantasy Golf PGA DFS Picks content is geared toward providing information that will help you make all your fantasy golf and wagering decisions in the best way possible. This is the last of our week-long material. It’s the pinnacle of where my research has taken me over the week and the culmination of the other three articles.
I am primarily a GPP player and enjoy making 100-150 lineups, so the allocations I give out are likely not exact, but they are my target for the mass entry GPPs.
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- Last week recap
- TV schedule and Weather update
- My entire player pool
- Personal favorites
- Notes on the chalkiest players
The following sections define who will play and what recommended allocation you should play them at:
- Core: These golfers are the ones we will start with every lineup. At least three from our core will be in every one of our lineups.
- PF’s: We all have “our” guys, and these are ours. They will be in the player pool at a minimum of 20%. I have xix – and they are quite common. Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, & Brian Stuard.
- Chalk Zone: These golfers are expected to be the most popular golfers of the week. These players, are supposed to be widely owned, and so, in a MASSIVE GPP, a winning lineup likely won’t have more than one of the guys listed in this area.
- Alternates: On the PGA Tour, alternates are lucky to get in the field each week. However, it happens every week, due to injuries, thus the need for them. In this section, we’ll identify a few lineup “alternates” that can help fill a lineup and still provide some decent upside.
- #NarrativeStreet: These golfers must fit one of the following criteria: 1. Live in the area of golf course 2. From the area of the golf course 3. Have something to play for (i.e., exemptions into Majors or chasing a PGA Tour card)
- Recommended Allocation: The % of time said golfer should be in your lineups. Or at least what we are advocating.
- Projected Ownership: The % that the field will have said golfer in their lineups.
- Variance: The difference between Recommended Allocation and Projected Ownership. A favorable variance gives you leverage.
- CH: Course History.
- RF: Recent Form.
- Sprinkles: Guys that may make one or two lineups at the most.
- Higher Dollar: contests with buy-in amounts over $100.
- MME: Multiple mass entries usually price range is $3,5,7,33,44.
- EW: Equal-weight to the expected ownership.
- OW: Overweight the expected ownership.
- UW: Underweight the expected ownership.
Last Week Article Recap
I had a couple of gutless mistakes. One going Reed & Sterne over Casey & Migliozzi in 1500 cost me not on the cash but first as well. I bubbled. Casey got in one of my $333’s, but it had Lucas Bjerregaard instead of Schwab. Total gutless plays. Luckily I get to move right on??
Tournament TV and Weather Update:
3-7 Thursday & Friday
3-6 Saturday & Sunday
PGA Tour live- Full coverage.
- Core: 8 Golfers
- Favorites: 0 Golfers
- Fringe: 10 golfers
- Alternates: 27 golfers
- Chalk zone: 4 golfers
- Total: 51 golfers
156 Players: Top 65 and ties make the cut
Viktor Hovland ($10,900/$12,100)
At this point, only some kind of fluke injury news would get me off Viktor this week. I think the type of game he has, long but accurate, translates perfectly to TPC Old White. The stats are too good; the motivation is there, the rest is there. I’m close to all in.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,700/$11,000)
Nothing against Joaquin here, but I think Hovland is a better golfer. That’s not to say that Jaco won’t beat him on any given week, obviously, but Niemann only gained more than 1.5 strokes ball-striking once all year last year, whereas Hovland did it in five of his six events he played in. I think the second piece behind Hovland is either going to be one of three guys; Bryson, this guy, or the next guy. It all comes down to roster construction at that point, and how many of the lower-priced guys you can hit on.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,300/$10,200)
Rostering the two chalkiest golfers of the slate means I have to differentiate elsewhere. One of those ways I will is to pair them up with Scottie instead of Byeong Hun An & Sungjae Im, which should create a little bit more uniqueness in the build. The young rising star from the Korn Ferry Tour, who has earned full status this year, seems to have all parts of the game and doesn’t rely on distance off the tee to score. We saw Sungjae Im burst on the scene last year and make it all the way to the Tour Championship, and there isn’t any reason Scottie won’t be following right behind.
Seven Golfers Under 8K in the core
Bud Cauley ($7,700/$9,400)
After almost suffering a fatal car crash during the week of The Memorial, Cauley bounced back nicely this and was able to retain his card. He ended up withdrawing at the Northern Trust, but let’s be honest that was more of a missed cut want to catch the earlier flight missed cut. Before that, he had gone on a nice stretch making four cuts in a row to end the season. He’s got a blend of everything that it would take to be good here, and even has success on it years back with a top 5. A nice complimentary package to the above-listed golfers.
Mackenzie Hughes ($7,200/$8,400)
I mentioned Hughes as a course fit golfer in my first article of the week, and I’m going to stick with that read for now. I think his game of relying on stronger iron play and accuracy over distance off the tee, with a hot putter, is how Kevin Na won last year, and why he’s likely had back to back top 20s here. I’ll roll with that at these prices.
Brendan Todd ($6,700/$8,800)
This is falling into the why, not category this week. He’s playing inspired golf, coming in making four cuts in a row including three top 20s, yea some of those were on the Korn Ferry tour, but a lot of those guys are in the field this week, and he’s got some good history here with back to back top 10’s in the mid 2010s. At this price, I’m willing to gamble at around 20-30% to get some three stacks of my top three.
Doug Ghim ($6,600/$7,900)
I’m a total sucker for guys that I like, and Doug is one of them. I think he’s got a ton of talent, and an ability to score he just needs some time out here. Now he’s got nothing to worry about except for playing golf. He’s not overly long, or short, and was out playing with defending champion of the Event Kevin Na earlier this week something that I think can have a spillover. I like Kevin as a mentor here; it seems like a great connection. Let’s see if it can translate into results as it did for Collin Morikawa after budding up with Justin Thomas early in his career.
Chase Seiffert ($6,500/$7,700)
If you’ve read my Korn Ferry Tour ranking, you’ll know that this is the one guy that really bewilders me. He hasn’t had any status on any tour, but finally got some last year after Monday qualifying and then placing in the top 10 of the Traveler’s Championship. I’ll ride this wave until we figure out exactly who he is. His stats from the Korn Ferry Tour would seem to translate perfectly here this week at TPC Old White.
(I define this as a ball that’s about half on the green and half on the fringe, but likely you allowed to mark the ball. I’ll throw these in periodically throughout the year.)
Robby Shelton ($6,400/$7,100) & Maverick McNealy ($6,400/$7,300)
Both highly touted coming out of college, had to do it the hard way after not earning enough through there sponsor exemptions. Still, plenty of stars have done it this way in recent years, most notably Justin Thomas. I’m not going to go out and make the claim that one of these guys is going to become as good as JT, but they certainly have the talent to produce high-quality golf, capable of getting inside the worlds top 50 to 100 golfers. That would mean they are quite undervalued at these prices, and im willing to buy early. Always.
Fringe golfers (targeted to 20% ownership and may get in a higher dollar)
- Bryson Dechambeau
- Sungjae Im
- Kevin Na
- Brian Harman
- Martin Laird
- Tom Lews (Trending more towards being in the core at this point)
- Sebastian Munoz
- Bill Haas
- Beau Hossler
- Kevin Chappell
Alternates (10-15% owned)
- Marc Leishman
- Bubba Watson
- Russell Henley
- Harold Varner III
- Cameron Smith
- Russel Knox
- Zach Johnson
- Joel Dahmen
- Danny Lee
- Bronson Burgoon
- Ryan Armor
- Anirban Lahiri
- Doc Redman
- Nate Lashley
- Zac Blair
- Roberto Castro
- Hank Lebioda
- Carlos Ortiz
- Shawn Stefani
- Scott Harington
- Mark Hubbard
- D.J. Trahan
- Tyler Duncan
- Matthew Nesmith
- Kristoffer Ventura
- Tyler McCumber
- Hayden Springer
The pool of Favorites:
ChalkZone: Covering how I’m playing selected chalk of the week
Weights to projected ownership:
- U= Under
- O= Over
- Jason Kokrak- E to U
- Byeong Hun An- E to U
- Kevin Streelman- U
- Keegan Bradley- E to U
- Steve Allan
- Andrew Novak
- Conrad Shindler
- Shintaro Ban
- Stuart Appleby
- Daniel Summerhays
- John Daly
- Brendon de Jonge
- Davey Jude
- Hayden Springer
- Kyle Westmoreland
- Mason Williams
- Bubba Watson & Marc Leishman are both said to have properties here at The Greenbrier.
Until next time everyone.