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Shriners Children’s Open DFS Golf Picks: Patrick Cantlay & Keith Mitchell Projecting for Big Weeks on DraftKings

Geoff Ulrich

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DraftKings FanDuel PGA DFS Picks Fantasy Golf 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Final Round Round 4 Alex Noren

This is the third stop on the fall swing for the PGA TOUR this week as it heads into Las Vegas for the Shriners Children’s Open. This event has undergone a few name changes but has remained a mainstay on the fall swing for quite some time. TPC Summerlin has hosted this event for over a decade and has also remained mostly unchanged over the last few years. Birdies and low scoring are a staple of this event, as the thin air turns everyone into the bombers and the relatively average to large greens are easy to hit, allowing players to get in grooves with their putters.

This week is another full-field event, with 150+ players involved. It will have exceedingly more talent at the top with Sungjae Im and Patrick Cantlay in the field, who are both former winners of this event. This column will use the Stokastic projections below to highlight who the best PGA DFS picks are this week at the Shriners Children’s Open.

Shriners Children’s Open DFS Golf Picks

Proximity and birdie rates are the majority of what matters at TPC Summerlin and even that can be hard to predict. This venue tends to bring all different styles of golfers into play and we have seen a wide range of winners here over the last decade. Supreme ball-strikers like Im and Matthew Wolff (in his heyday) have done well at this venue, but shorter hitters powered by good wedges and nuclear putters have also pulled off wins on multiple occasions. Overall, this venue plays about average from a driving accuracy standpoint but tends to yield a high greens-in-regulation percentage as the larger greens are generally easy to hold. Focus on players who are giving themselves lots of birdie opportunities is key this week.

TPC Summerlin Stats and Info

  • Par 71 which plays between 7,200 and 7,300 yards; features pure bentgrass greens and is approximately 2,700 feet above sea level
  • Winners over the last two seasons (Martin Laird and Bryson DeChambeau) each gained over six strokes on their approach. Six of the top seven players at this event last season gained 4.5 strokes or more on their approaches for the week.
  • Venue features eight par 4’s under 450 yards in length; two of the par 5’s will play around 560 yards but will likely play much shorter given the altitude (efficiency from 500 to 550 yards may be worth looking at)

Shriners Children’s Open 2022 DFS Golf Picks

Patrick Cantlay

Total Points Projection: 105.1 | Top 6 percentage: 40.78%

Cantlay is going to be the most pivotal player on the slate, by far. He’s got an ownership projection that could see him breech 50% rostered on at least one of the two major DFS sites but comes in as a clear and overwhelming +600 favorite in what is still a pretty underwhelming fall swing field. Cantlay was buzzing with his A+ game right into the end of the summer as well, pulling off his second BMW Championship title in a row and posting top-five finishes at the Scottish Open and Detroit Rocket Mortgage.

From a projection standpoint, it’s hard to put into words just how dominant a play Cantlay is this week. He’s got a top-six percentage of well over 40% which may actually be the highest we’ve ever projected for a single player in a full-field PGA TOUR event. His points projection is also a full 10.0 points higher than second place Im, but even at $11,100 on DraftKings, Cantlay still projects as better value. Given the form, course history (eighth or better in four appearances at TPC Summerlin) and projection, it’s not unreasonable to start a GPP core with a full lot of Cantlay this week.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 43.4% | FanDuel 56.9%

The Stats:

  • Leads the field in strokes gained total stats at TPC Summerlin over the last five seasons
  • Has gained over 5.0 strokes ball-striking in three of his last four PGA TOUR starts

Keith Mitchell

Total Points Projection: 78.0 | Top 6 percentage: 11.25%

The field this week is deeper than it was last week and that becomes more evident as we approach the $8,000 range on DraftKings, given the abundance of recognizable names. One player who looks like both solid value and a good setup for the course is Keith Mitchell, a player who routinely challenges at easier scoring courses. Mitchell ranks a solid 25th in birdie or better percentage on the season and racked up top-10 finishes at the Travelers, Sony and Honda this season.

From a course history standpoint, Mitchell’s own lack of success at TPC Summerlin (zero-for-four in made cuts) should also work to keep his ownership levels down. The American has had success playing in the desert, though, with multiple top-20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale and it’s likely only a matter of time before he figures TPC Summerlin out and gets in a few low rounds. He’s trending extremely well in the Stokastic Model this week with the highest projected point total of anyone under $8,800 on DraftKings and the best value score of anyone ranked $8,000 in salary there. Mitchell is a solid value this week and likely won’t turn into heavy chalk given his lack of results at this week’s tournament.

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Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 14.0% | FanDuel 5.1%

The Stats:

  • Ranks 25th in birdies gained over the last 50 rounds and first strokes gained OTT stats
  • Has just one missed cut over his last 10 starts on the PGA TOUR and has gained over 2.0 strokes putting in four of his last seven measured starts

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Alex Noren

Total Points Projection: 78.3 | Top 6 percentage: 11.40%

Alex Noren comes into this week off a near miss overseas, where he finished second at the Alfred Dunhill Links event (played partially at St. Andrews) to Ryan Fox. Noren has played each of the past two weeks and on almost completely opposite sides of the globe. With him now flying back to the States for this week, there’s certainly at least a little worry that fatigue will be a factor in Vegas.

The upside is hard to ignore with Noren, a player who has routinely killed easier courses on the PGA TOUR over the last couple of seasons. He’s racked up top-10 finishes at TPC Twin Lakes and TPC Scottsdale, and was second at the Barracuda just two months ago, which encourages aggressive play by using the Stableford scoring method. Noren’s an elite putter who has gained over 1.0 stroke putting in each of his last seven measured PGA starts and sets up perfectly for the venue this week, one that will require players to convert their birdie chances at a high rate just to keep up with the leaders. Projecting for 8% ownership or less, Noren’s a solid target for daily fantasy golf target lineups, especially in bigger field GPPs.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 7.8% | FanDuel 8.0%

Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Joel Dahmen $7,100

Dahmen showed up last week and broke out of a mini-slump with a 13th-place finish at Sanderson Farms. He gained 6.9 strokes ball-striking for the week, which was his best effort in that department for quite some time. He’s always been an up-and-down putter but has shown the ability to spike with that club, gaining over 2.0 strokes putting six times over the course of last season. He’s also made four cuts in a row at TPC Summerlin, making him a nice GPP value at $7,100, with a sub-5% ownership projection on Stokastic this week to boot.

Ben Griffin $6,200

Griffin has showcased himself as a bridie-maker extraordinaire since joining the PGA TOUR. He ranks top 10 in birdies gained over the last 24 rounds and has gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in two of his last three PGA TOUR starts. Griffin missed the cut in five out of six events at one point last season on the Korn Ferry Tour, so there is risk involved, but at near the bare minimum, he makes for a nice punt in GPPs.

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