Pricing today on both DraftKings and FanDuel is about as soft as Cottonelle Tissue, as each of these three guys listed below are $1-2K cheaper than they should be in my opinion. As you’ll see when you read, I’m just chasing the guys with the high-strikeout potential tonight because I want all the upside I can get from my pitchers (on DK especially). This should be a fun slate all around, so if you want more analysis on each game, check out this morning’s MLB Strategy Video with myself (Tommienation1) and Josh Engleman. Awesemo will update this article with his notes later this afternoon, so be sure to check back before lock!
Jacob deGrom ($11,500 DK/$9,400 FD)
DeGrom gets a tough matchup tonight against the Nationals, but there are a few things in his favor tonight that make him a solid play in all formats. First, he just had a solid outing against the Nationals two starts ago (6 IP, 5K, ER, 16.3 Swinging-Strike). Second, he has allowed under 18% hard-contact to right-handed hitters this season and he should get at least 5 righties in the Nats lineup. And lastly, it’s fairly easy to fit him into your lineups today with so many value bats, so even if he doesn’t get you 30 DK points, he could be the highest scoring pitcher of the night.
Luis Castillo ($7,300 DK/$7,000 FD)
If you’ve been playing Castillo this season, you’re probably not thrilled with the results you’ve gotten out of him for DFS. He’s given up at least 3 earned runs in each of the starts and has been at 6Ks or under in all 3 of them as well. However, he ranks 19th in Whiffs/Swing among all starts this year and has the highest Swinging-Strike rate of any pitcher on tonight’s slate. The matchup is certainly scary against the Brewers, but they are top-7 in the MLB in Swing% and O-Swing%, and Castillo’s swing-and-miss stuff is some of the best in the league. With the savings on DraftKings, it’s tough for me to avoid a volatile Castillo even at chalky ownership in tournaments.
Blake Snell ($7,800 DK/$7,100 FD)
Snell is another guy like Castillo that can be volatile, as he’s given up 4.3 BB/9 dating back to the start of 2017, but he put together a very nice performance (6 IP, 10K) in his last start in Chicago against the White Sox despite walking 5 batters. The Rangers have the 7th lowest BB% in the MLB this year and also rank inside the top-10 in O-Swing% and Swinging-Strike%, so this is clearly a matchup in which Snell has a lot of K potential. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s ownership projections for Snell and Castillo, too, as I have them neck-and-neck in my rankings, but would prefer the one that will be lower owned in tournaments.
I have to agree with Jake that tonight’s pricing is very soft on today’s slate on DK. A lot of lineups that I’m making in my early crunches have a thousand or two of salary left on the table. With that in mind, it makes sense to take deGrom as your #1 pitcher unless you’re making a contrarian play. I have Snell as my second best pitcher, but the combination of Snell and deGrom may very well be overowned, so it makes sense from a strategic perspective to take Castillo as a contrarian option. Game log watchers will surely drive down his ownership. A couple other pitchers I like today are Paxton and Nola.
MLB Data Central
DraftKings MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings MLB DFS Picks Today 7/2/22
FanDuel MLB Cheat Sheet: FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today 7/2/22
MLB DFS Picks Saturday 7/2: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Single-Game & Showdown (FREE TODAY)
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Night Slate
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Express Slates
MLB DFS Ownership Projections: Early Slate