After a few good pitching slates in a row, this one does not have an embarrassment of riches as the top guys have some tough matchups and weather to worry about. If you’re looking for more analysis on each game tonight, check out the MLB Strategy Video from this morning. Awesemo will update this article with notes of his own, so make sure to check back before lock!
Robbie Ray ($11,000 DK/$9,300 FD)
Ray doesn’t have the greatest matchup in the world, as there are a few scary Phillies in this lineup, namely Rhys Hoskins and Mikael Franco, but there aren’t many pitching options I’m excited about, and Ray arguably has the highest strikeout upside on the slate. This is a game you’ll have to monitor because of the weather, but the Phillies have the 6th highest K-rate on the year, and Ray is striking out righties at a 32.4% clip this season and is 6th in Whiffs/Swing%. Assuming this one plays, I like Ray in tournaments because of the limited options on this slate.
Kenta Maeda ($9,300 DK/$9,100 FD)
Maeda will get a Marlins team that has been a popular option to pick on with starting pitchers this year, as they have 3rd-lowest On-Base Percentage and the 2nd-lowest ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Outside of Justin Bour, there aren’t many bats that should give Maeda problems in terms of power, and he’s shown he can strike guys out at a high-rate, posting 10Ks in 2 of his 4 starts this year. I’m not in love with Maeda as a play, but it’s hard not to consider him at $9,300 where he should be able to go 5-6 innings and rack up a K per inning against a lackluster Marlins squad.
Tanner Roark ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD)
This is a guy that I rarely play in tournaments as his upside is very limited, but against the Giants, who rank in the top-10 in all of Swinging-Strike%, Swing%, and O-Swing% this season. Roark has a 24% K-rate against righties this year and a lot of the best hitters on the Giants are righties (McCutchen, Longoria, Posey). It’s not the most exciting play because of the price, but the ballpark is as good as it gets for pitching, so Roark seems like a safe options, even if he doesn’t have the most upside.
I agree with Jake on Maeda and Roark, but the weather is scaring me a little bit off of Ray. If the game goes he’s a great option, but from the radar, it looks like there’s a strong possibility of a postponement. An option I like as a pivot from Ray is Luke Weaver, who is underpriced today on DK relative to his gaudy strikeout numbers.