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Prepping for a fantasy football draft can be a time consuming, confusing process. Spending hours reading though magazines, on-line articles, and listening to podcasts can leave you sifting through a mishmash of conflicting and often useless information.
It’s difficult figuring out who to trust and which stats are noise and which aren’t. You’ve probably come across players who are considered a ‘Breakout’ pick in one article, only to see them labeled as a ‘bust’ in another.
The reason for this is simple: There are too many available statistics to choose from and many of the ones that are used by fantasy football analysts, contain little, if any, predictive value. In fact, even the statistics that do offer predictive value can be harmful when viewed in isolation. When citing individual statistics – as fantasy football analysts often do – they can make the case for anyone. If you’re tired of the groupthink and industry consensus, of seeing the same rankings over and over again, maybe it’s time for a data driven approach.
Fortunately, the solution to this problem is also simple: the creation of first-rate fantasy football rankings, based on projections. Good projections consider millions of data points. They then determine which data points are most predictive and aggregate them into a single overarching number for each player, finally culminating in a ranking system that takes relativity into account.
The Awesemo Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Whether you have an off-line draft or simply want a quick easy-to-look at cheat sheet for your fantasy football draft, we’ve got you covered with all types of different league scoring, from full PPR to half point to zero PPR (standard). You can also download our fantasy football cheat sheets by positional ranking and cross them off your draft, or use them in conjunction with our draft wingman tool, which allows you to keep track of how each pick is improving your roster.All our cheatsheets are based off of Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s fantasy football rankings and projections. The world’s #1 DFS player, Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker put his daily fantasy model to use, in order to calculate game-by-game projections for the entire NFL season, for every fantasy-relevant player. He used over/unders, win totals, spreads and metrics like targets, routes run, yards per attempt and many more, to come up with one simple, easy to use number for your fantasy football drafts. After that Awesemo factored in positional scarcity and relative value to reach a final, easy to use set of rankings and tiers.
Strength of Schedule Tool
Not every week is equal in fantasy football, especially when it comes to beating your friends in the playoffs. If you preferentially choose players who have a favorable schedule going into weeks 15 and 16 you’ll have a great chance of success. The Awesemo Strength of Schedule tool isn’t your regular list of good and bad defences by week. Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker has put his projections to work – using game lines from the 2020 season, coupled with specific stats to create a rating for each matchup that isn’t solely based on last year’s performances. As well, types of defences are taken into account. Inside, run stuffing defences may allow no points to bruising backs who continually run through the A-gap, but what about pass-catching backs like Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara? Awesemo’s Strength of Schedule Tool, treats those backs differently, for example, and tailors the fantasy football strength of schedule to their unique situations. As well, we’ve grouped each player’s strength of schedule by periods of the season – grouped by weeks. Want to know how a player grades out during the playoffs, just toggle the playoff column. Got a guillotine league where you need to be great right off the bat? Toggle Weeks 1-4.
Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts + Busts
With the fantasy football draft season upon us, the #1 Ranked Fantasy Player, Alex “Awesemo” Baker brings you his top fantasy foootball sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2020 Fantasy Football Season. For more information about what constitutes a fantasy football sleeper, breakout or bust, please see our write up, below.
Breakout: An already established high-level player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position) going into the season.
Sleeper: A mid-range player who is projected to outperform his ADP.
Deep Sleeper: An end of draft flier who has the potential to be a diamond in the rough.
Bust: A player who is expected to under-perform relative to other players in his ADP range.
The table below has a tab for each of (1) breakouts, (2) sleepers, (3) deep sleepers and (4) busts. For each player, you can see the player’s rank, his ADP and most importantly the differential between the two.
What are Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts?
Most fantasy football fans are very familiar with terms like sleepers, breakouts & busts. But the industry has never really set out to define each term. What specifically constitutes a deep sleeper vs a regular sleeper? What percentage of points do you have to increase or decrease to be considered a bust?
Here at Awesemo we’ve set out to better define what fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts are, by categorizing them in our rankings, relative to their average draft position. With each set of fantasy football sleepers, busts and breakouts listed we’ve created a differential column relative to their average draft position, so you can see how player rank.
Awesemo’s data table allows you to compare our projections vs. the average draft position, see which players projected to bust in 2020 and which players make for great mid-to-late-round steals. Breakouts are determined by how far ahead Awesemo has a player projected over his ADP. Sleepers are similar but have an ADP of 50 or lower, while deep sleepers have an ADP of 100 or lower. Busts are players that Awesemo has ranked much lower than their ADP.
Fantasy Football Breakouts
An already established high-level player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position) going into the season.Unlike the traditional definition of breakout, which implies a first time, record performance for a player, our breakouts are simply put in comparison relative to their average draft position. David Johnson is our top breakout option for the 2020 fantasy football season, ranked 20+ spots above his ADP.
Fantasy Football Sleepers + Deep Sleepers
The only difference here is how highly each player is ranked. Fantasy football sleepers are ranked from 50 to 110 in Awesemo’s rankings, while deep sleepers are ranked 100+ beyond. You’ll find a number of top RB handcuffs ranking highly in the Awesemo’s sleeper score, including Boston Scott, Zack Moss, Chase Edmonds and Tony Pollard.
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