Our predicted % of the time you win this bet based off of our projections, book lines, historical results, mean/median distributions and simulations.
Expected value – also known as ROI. This is the weighted average of returns. For example 60% chance of winning a +100 bet has an EV of 20% (.6 * 1 + .4*-1).
This is our refined version of Kelly Criterion optimal bet percentage that is designed to maximize your bankroll in the long term. For example, if you had a 20% ROI bet, betting 100% of your bankroll would cause you to inevitably go broke, but betting 1% might not be maximizing your long term growth. We do the math to help you determine the correct % of your bankroll to bet.
This metric measures the % your bankroll is expected to grow if you were to place this bet. We factor in how much of your bankroll you should invest (sBet%) as well as negative geometric drag to calculate this. This is the default sort because at the end of the day, as a bettor you are trying to maximize the growth of your bankroll and this captures that.
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IMPORTANT: This data is part of a separate package than Platinum/DFS packages. Please subscribe to the NBA Bet Pro package to access this content and get all data in real time. A 3-Day Free Trial is available for New Users. If you’re already a member, please login to access this tool.Top EV Points Bets
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The key difference is that EV measures the growth of a single bet, whereas sEV measures ROI in terms of the growth of your entire bankroll
Would you rather place a bet where you have a 100% chance to win and an EV of 20% or a bet with a 1% chance to win and the same EV of 20%? Clearly the first option is better because you can safely invest every last penny of your net worth and you would be able to fully realize that 20% EV whereas with the 1% win bet you could only invest some amount < 100% of your bankroll.
Lets begin with a few assumptions:
If you were win to this bet once and lose once you would end up with 110%*90% = 99% of your bankroll for a net loss of 1%! The general way to calculate bet returns this way is winReturn^(win%)*lossReturn^(loss%). This is the essence of the concept of negative geometric drag also known as volatility tax in the finance world which we’ve factored into our sEV calculation.
Be sure to check if there are any key questionable plyers on a player’s team before placing a bet. Our current projections are assuming questionable players are IN until they get ruled out. For example, if the tool is saying that Jaylen Brown under points is a good bet, but Tatum is questionable then avoid taking the bet unless you are confident Tatum will play.
We are currently working on fixing a bias towards the over in the underlying algorithms. For the time being this means is that you should focus primarily on unders and only take overs that really stand out. This will be fixed in an upcoming update.
With access to the NBA player stat projections that drive our winning DFS player point projection models, you can apply advanced sports analytics to player prop bets and get an edge on the sportsbooks!
Our NBA projections are managed by Stokastic’s team of experts, including Alex Baker, Rich Green, Shawn Zhan, and Steve Buzzard, and updated throughout the day as more information becomes available up until the last game tips
projections to help scan the entire player prop market and find positive EV plays. With our simple tables, you can check out 100’s of prop bets today and make an informed decision on what to do next.
We know it’s hard to stay on top of all the NBA prop betting options. That’s why we’ve recalibrated the industry’s best DFS projections to help scan the entire player prop market and find positive EV plays. With our simple tables, you can check out 100’s of prop bets today and make an informed decision on what to do next.
The measure of what a bettor can anticipate to win or lose each wager made on the same odds repeatedly is called expected value (EV) in the betting world. A positive expected value (+EV) suggests a future profit, whereas a negative value (-EV) suggests a future loss. Every wager should be made with the intention of finding betting value.
NBA player props are fun way to wager on an NBA game without necessarily wagering on the final result of the game. NBA Player Props are becoming more and more popular since they allow you to take advantage of a players’ advantageous position to hit over or under lines on numbers like points, assists, rebounds, or a combination of those. We at Stokastic favor these over game lines bets, knowing the market is more inefficient and favorable to bet on.
Stokastic’s NBA Risk-Free Player Props data helps you consider the value and expected return for NBA player prop wagers using a risk-free bet promotion where your original bet gets refunded if you lose. The RFB Value column is our calculation for on average how much money you will make on a $1000 risk-free bet. Maximize your free sportsbook plays!