Our predicted % of the time you win this bet based off of our projections, book lines, historical results, mean/median distributions and simulations.
Expected value – also known as ROI. This is the weighted average of returns. For example 60% chance of winning a +100 bet has an EV of 20% (.6 * 1 + .4*-1).
This is our refined version of Kelly Criterion optimal bet percentage that is designed to maximize your bankroll in the long term. Note this metric applies for sequential, not simultaneously placed bets. We are working on more specific guidance on how to handle sbet% for n number of bets, but generally speaking you should be betting less of the single sBet% for each additional simultaneous bet placed.
This metric measures the % your bankroll is expected to grow if you were to place this bet. We factor in how much of your bankroll you should invest (sBet%) as well as negative geometric drag to calculate this.Â
Navigating the multitude of MLB, NBA, and NFL player prop betting options can be challenging. That’s why we’ve refined the industry’s top DFS projections, empowering you to effortlessly scan the entire player prop market and discover positive EV plays. With our user-friendly tables, you can explore dozens of prop bets today and make informed decisions with confidence.
You are seeing a PREVIEW of Stokastic’s NBA and MLB Bet Pro data. IMPORTANT: This data is part of a separate package than Platinum/DFS packages. Please subscribe to the Bet Pro package to access this content and get all data in real time. A 30-day Introductory Trial Month is available for New Users. The introductory trial month is available for both weekly and monthly subscriptions. If you’re already a member, please login to access this tool. PLEASE NOTE: This data is a miniscule subset of all players and props available to bet on today and does not offer any advanced tools. The data you are seeing in the preview may not be up to date. Bet Pro:
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The key difference is that EV measures the growth of a single bet, whereas sEV measures the ROI in terms of the growth of your entire bankroll
Would you rather place a bet where you have a 100% chance to win and an EV of 20% or a bet with a 1% chance to win and the same EV of 20%? Clearly the first option is better because you can safely invest every last penny of your net worth and you would be able to fully realize that 20% EV whereas with the 1% win bet you could only invest some amount < 100% of your bankroll.
Lets begin with a few assumptions:
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If you were win to this bet once and lose once you would end up with 110%*90% = 99% of your bankroll for a net loss of 1%! The general way to calculate bet returns this way is winReturn^(win%)*lossReturn^(loss%). This is the essence of the concept of negative geometric drag also known as volatility tax in the finance world which we’ve factored into our sEV calculation.
With access to the stat projections that drive our winning DFS player point projection models, you can apply advanced sports analytics to player prop bets and get an edge on the sportsbooks!
Our DFS projections are managed by Stokastic’s team of experts, including Alex Baker, Rich Green, Shawn Zhan, and Steve Buzzard, and updated throughout the day as more information becomes available up until the last game tips.
We know it’s hard to stay on top of all the prop betting options. That’s why we’ve recalibrated the industry’s best DFS projections to help scan the entire player prop market and find positive EV plays.
The measure of what a bettor can anticipate to win or lose each wager made on the same odds repeatedly is called expected value (EV) in the betting world. A positive expected value (+EV) suggests a future profit, whereas a negative value (-EV) suggests a future loss. Every wager should be made with the intention of finding betting value.
Player props are fun way to wager on an MLB, NBA and NFL games without necessarily wagering on the final result. Player Props are becoming more and more popular since they allow you to take advantage of a players’ advantageous position to hit over or under lines on numbers like touchdowns thrown, strikeouts, points, assists, rebounds, or a combination of those. We at Stokastic favor these over game lines bets, knowing the market is more inefficient and favorable to bet on.
Our best bet data showcases the props with the greatest EV across all sportsbooks. We make it very simple and quick to lock in excellent value player prop bets if you’re planning to do some line shopping today.
Moving forward we won’t be turning on the Bet Pro tool each morning until 11 AM Central Time (we may make exceptions during special circumstances with early games like holidays or playoffs). This is to ensure that we have the appropriate amount of time to make sure that all of our projections are refined and that the bet predictions up on the tool are always up to our high standards of quality.
Our sEV metric measures the % your bankroll is expected to grow if you were to place this bet. We factor in how much of your bankroll you should invest (sBet%) as well as negative geometric drag to calculate this. This is the default sort because at the end of the day, as a bettor you are trying to maximize the growth of your bankroll and this captures that.
sBet% is our refined version of Kelly Criterion optimal bet percentage that is designed to maximize your bankroll in the long term. For example, if you had a 20% ROI bet, betting 100% of your bankroll would cause you to inevitably go broke, but betting 1% might not be maximizing your long term growth. We do the math to help you determine the correct % of your bankroll to bet.
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